ksstormhunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just pushed out 21 Snowfall forecasts for the upstate regions, still looking at the next 24 hours or so of 7-9" band across W-SW NY areas, with the Buffalo area at the highest of 8.9, then more additional snows after that. Site Specific city snowfall forecasts have been uploaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I am laughing at this....1/4 inch of ice??? but only 3-5 snow now?? it was no ice and 5-10 snow....... plus a flood watch too....just trying to cover all the bases by the sounds of it. The wife went to Price Chopper this morning and it was MOBBED..they had people from the bakery packing groceries....I have not heard any of the local media weather reports so I am wondering if someone is hyping this storm.... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 new cobb output for rochester for 18z Nam just kills us w/ bout 40 inches of snow! Unbelievable! No literally UNBELIEVABLE. I see a determined east shift in this storm. We shall see. The GFS did go west W/ precip at noon. not sure about the 18z. Here is link to Bufkit Cobb totals. http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kroc 44.1" for Syracuse on the 18z NAM. All this time I thought I was tracking a synoptic gulf low event. Turns out it's an LES event undercover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z NAM/18z NAM are keying on the widespread convection near the Gulf Coast allowing downstream heights to rise and causing a feedback process strengthening the southern system a great deal and bringing it significantly further west than the 12z GFS/ECMWF. The 18z GFS also appears to be correcting slightly west due to the widespread convection. Since the NAM is non-hydrostatic...it can more readily see the warming processing of the convection. However, more often than not is overdoes the convective feedback process. I expect a solution somewhere in between the 12z GFS and 12z NAM with respect to the surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I expect a solution somewhere in between the 12z GFS and 12z NAM with respect to the surface low track. Aren't those the most east and west models? Which one do you think it'll be closer to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Kbgm and kalb arent seeing eye to eye KBGM BY 18Z, RAIN/SNOW LINE SHUD RUN FM ABOUTCOOPERSTOWN TO OWEGO KALB Sunday Night: Rain before 10pm, then snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Aren't those the most east and west models? Which one do you think it'll be closer to? I think the Euro and the GFS are pretty close...I'd factor in a 50/50 blend GFS/NAM at this point. The convective feedback is likely real...but overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That is a purty map for SYR. Of course a lot of sloppy glop is not our style here, most undignified. We've yet to have a WSW verify IMBY this winter, maybe this one will. I suspect we'll end up on western fringe of decent snow from the weak slp that slides up the coastal plain. SYRMAX, correct? qpf with these system can be deceiving. Even the 18z GFS puts you along or east of the 700mb through/low until about 00z tomorrow...which is pretty nice spot to be in. The models tend to underdo snowfall/precipitation along the 700mb def axis. I think you look fine for at least warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 SYRMAX, correct? qpf with these system can be deceiving. Even the 18z GFS puts you along or east of the 700mb through/low until about 00z tomorrow...which is pretty nice spot to be in. The models tend to underdo snowfall/precipitation along the 700mb def axis. I think you look fine for at least warning criteria. Very true...if you believe the NAM we would be getting 5 maybe 5+ of liquid equivalent ...which is just outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 We have picked up 0.90 of an inch of RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 based on current situation for snow accums after changeover ottawa 2-5 inches / 5-13cm. montreal 4-8 inches / 10-20cm S of montreal towards VT 6-12 inches /15-30cm keeping relative conservative for now as need to see the progress of the Ra-Sn line this evening....if the changeover occurs effectively, or if the models continue to move towards the NAM, then higher amounts may be necessary, will monitor 00z trends and update of course Snowstorm already in progress in upper ottawa valley/ laurentians / ski areas, with expected total accums unchanged......... up to 18 inches /45cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 We have picked up 0.90 of an inch of RA. It;s stayed pretty much north of here today. Not even .10" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 still at 49 in buffalo.. POO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 still at 49 in buffalo.. POO No Bro, You want it to stay warm as long as possible for any chance of snow in buf. You guys are already on the very far west fringe of sig accums. The longer it stays warm means the slower the cold front is moving (ie: the storm track for tomorrow). If it is still in the 40's at 3 am yull be looking good for big snow. But my guess is the best snow will be 140 miles to yur east in SYR or Rome. I live in Rochester so I'm hoping this cold front is slower in it's eastward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 pretty impressive backside snow getting there act together in michigan, thats encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 No Bro, You want it to stay warm as long as possible for any chance of snow in buf. You guys are already on the very far west fringe of sig accums. The longer it stays warm means the slower the cold front is moving (ie: the storm track for tomorrow). If it is still in the 40's at 3 am yull be looking good for big snow. But my guess is the best snow will be 140 miles to yur east in SYR or Rome. I live in Rochester so I'm hoping this cold front is slower in it's eastward progress. this part made me i agree with your analysus though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 front is through toronto +8C to +2C in a couple hours, N wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The graphic says Saturday, but it should be Sunday. Local mets dont seem to agree with most others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaser915 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 here is the only one I can find for Albany NY. CH 13 WNYT seems to be the only one going out on a limb with a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The graphic says Saturday, but it should be Sunday. Local mets dont seem to agree with most others Now that seems ridiculous based on current model info that 2-4" area is exactly where i would wanna be for the BIG snows. At least the NW portion of it. If Syracuse gets about 4", I'll eat my shoe. They should double or triple that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The longer it stays warm means the slower the cold front is \If it is still in the 40's at 3 am yull be looking good for big snow. A stronger LP would help us as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 For through 5PM, the Syracuse map makes sense. Although, it looks like the 0C line will go through a bit faster than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Cold front just passed through Ashtabula, Ohio. Given the latest RUC and the WV Satellite presentation...the 18z NAM will be closer to the southern shortwave position than the 18z GFS...near the TX/LA border as opposed to near central LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 front is through toronto +8C to +2C in a couple hours, N wind Wow, a little ahead of schedule?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 absolutely pouring rain here in Ottawa. Can't say I'm feeling very optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just got back from the SU blowout/dunkfest.....saw the 18z NAM snow totals on ye old Droid. Yikes! But reality quickly set in....it always seems to pop a qpf max JUST to the NW of a NE'ward moving LP.....that either never materializes, or it much less pronounced (but seeing the "purple" for a six hour period with it being snow for CNY is over the top even for the NAM.... 00z should seal the deal (I would think) on the timing/intensities/placements..... This is a toughie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 front is through ottawa, winds have shifted NW and temp is falling i tell you man we got buckets of rain today.....expected but always a slap in the face when it happens....now onto the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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