CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Do you agree with that, or are you still going with 4-8"? Honestly, EC has been really bad over the past couple of years. I mean no offense to the individual mets who work there but, as a whole, Canada is poorly served by an agency which relies on one model, particularly one which has a known warm bias. I mean, what a bust for pembroke! The same goes for the UK, where the UK Met office hasa notorious warm bias, and has consequently busted horribly on their past two winter seasonal forecasts. For a country like Canada, which gets extreme weather, we need an agency that relies on more than one model. well i had 2-6 initial 'wide' range yesterday with spots in eastern ontario to 8 inches. i dont really think ottawa will get more than 6 inches through tomorrow afternoon, but i suppose 8 could happen if the changeover is quick and easy. montreal looking to get > 6 inches though. will put out some numbers soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That's bizarre if they really only use one model. I know ALY has always used the RGEM along with the other US models. Let's face it - the NWS understands how bad their models are and therefore has to use foreign models. this would be the correct word lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Here was the 12z Canadian in color... mass carnage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's further west than it's RGEM counterpart..... Here was the 12z Canadian in color... mass carnage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's further west than it's RGEM counterpart..... Yeah, the northern half of the track is slightly left of the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Gawd, just pure annihilation on the 18z NAM thru H33 across W & nw C NY. QPF in the cold sector is just outragous, probably some 3"/hr rates in there lol. I have a feeling the NAM is overblowing the QPF as usual, but its just awesome to see on these zoomed in maps. Like a colorful firework show it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Gawd, just pure annihilation on the 18z NAM thru H33 across W & nw C NY. QPF in the cold sector is just outragous, probably some 3"/hr rates in there lol. I have a feeling the NAM is overblowing the QPF as usual, but its just awesome to see on these zoomed in maps. Like watching fireworks with all the pretty colors... love the 6 hour 1.50 inch blob near syraucse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Gawd, just pure annihilation on the 18z NAM thru H33 across W & nw C NY. QPF in the cold sector is just outragous, probably some 3"/hr rates in there lol. I have a feeling the NAM is overblowing the QPF as usual, but its just awesome to see on these zoomed in maps... The amazing consistency of the NAM is interesting. With the Euro being aggressive with precip in the cold sector (which would imply a more wound-up LP maybe?), the NAM may not be that far off (except for the prodigeous QPF)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I need about a 20 mile shift east on the NAM...0c line just chills over my area most of the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Widespread 24+ across parts of W and C NY on 18z NAM as the deformation zone from hell just sits and pivots. This is just laughable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM is consistent, but probably off it's rocker..... It has the surface low over top or even north of the vortmax. Essentially the most extreme scenario that could be devised out of this situation by a model. Widespread 24+ across parts of W and C NY on 18z NAM as the deformation band from hell just sits and pivots. Just laughable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 hey CNYWX guy quick question surface map valid 18z today on the euro.....did it have a low in the S? if not, when do we see the first appearance of the Southerly low and where is it, and what surface pressure contour? (i only have qpf access) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 hey CNYWX guy quick question surface map valid 18z today on the euro.....did it have a low in the S? if not, when do we see the first appearance of the Southerly low and where is it, and what surface pressure contour? (i only have qpf access) Looking at the National and Southeast regional maps on 12z Euro, there is no defined surface low thru H12. By H18 / 1AM Sunday... a Sub 1012mb SLP is positioned right over Auburn AL near the central border of AL / GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Comes down to where the energy is held back, and where the SLP forms.. NAM being the farthest west, phasing and forming LP over Mississippi, instead of Georgia like the others... NAM deeply phases the storm, and brings it so far west.... almost time to completely throw out the NAM, as it has ZERO support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well that was interesting... I think that tops every run of any model I've ever seen in the sub-72 hour range. 1.25"+ QPF here as snow, but as it continues to nudge east, it will continue to drop. I guess WNYers can hope that the NW nudge that's screwed us so many times this winter appears in full force...so that we don't forget it? Right? RIGHT?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Don't have a clown map, this is all I got for the 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking at the National and Southeast regional maps on 12z Euro, there is no defined surface low thru H12. By H18 / 1AM Sunday... a Sub 1012mb SLP is positioned right over Auburn AL near the central border of AL / GA. ok the reason i asked is because the current surface map has the southern low coming ashore in louisiana at 1011 pressure at 18z now last nights NAM is the only model that has been showing this early, and generally the NAM has been fastest to develop this low ....the other models have been much slower to develop the southern low. now that doesnt mean i think the NAM is right as that southern low may not inensify for a while until it gets to the other models positions.... but it is something to watch. certainly though, i dont believe the NAM is right against all the other models. there are a couple of confusing aspects to this event that i can see. first, i believe the baroclinc zone is actually further west than expected at this time. the waves are more robust and as the surface pic shows above, they are further north and west than the models indicated say yesterday. for this reason, i think changeovers are going to be slower to occur this evening up here because the wind shift is behind that first wave in ontario. BUT the moisutre transport is further SE than modeled. this suggests there may be less cold sector precip after the changeover? i dont know. i guess that may be dependent on the second low. in addition, the models themselves are quite different with the evolution of the setup with the euro showing more cold sector precip in a series of waves. the NAM of course is way out there, but it has the southern low. none of the models seem entirely sure but concensus would still lean heavily towards euro/GFS blend. lots of questions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 ALY has converted the WS Watch to a Warning across the Dacks for 8-12 / <.25 Ice. WS Watch remains in effect elsewhere... Also a Flood Watch issued opposite the Winter headlines for remaining cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 heck of a snowstorm going on just north of ottawa environemnt canada now calling for another 8 inches / 20cm tonight in pembroke. i'm sure some localized places up arond there and in the quebec side will be near 50cm / 20 inches when its all said and done. env canada has also changed rainfall warnings to WSW in areas north of montreal and in the ski areas. defintely sucks here in the cities, we missed the big snows with this first wave by about 50 miles.....expected but still no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 KALB ...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE QPF REMAINS HIGH......CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAINS MODERATE TO LOW... SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY AS ALL AVAILABLEGUIDANCE DIFFER HOW TO HANDLE THE UPSTREAM POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ITS SYNOPTIC IMPACT TO FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. THE NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST WITH THE UKMET ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PLUMES FROM THE GEFS FOR ALBANY SUGGEST UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH A FEW OUTLIERS /WHICH SEEMS TO BE OUR TREND THIS WINTER/ SUGGESTING A WINTRY MIXTURE OVER TO SNOW DURING SUNDAY. THE MEAN SEEMS TO BE THE LATEST ECMWF AND GGEM WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE DACKS FIRST. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE PRECIP AS FGEN BAND IS EXPECTED TO LINE UP ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE WHERE SNOW/SLEET/FZRA COULD OCCUR. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE DELMARVA VICINITY...THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT TO DRIVE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE FGEN BAND REMAINING OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE OFFICE...MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET AND A NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. HAVE DECIDED...BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC...TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE DACKS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD OCCUR. WITH FAIRLY HIGH QPF VALUES AND CURRENT FFG FROM THE NERFC OF 2" ON AVERAGE NEEDED TO RAISE CONCERNS...WE WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH /NOT FOR THE DACKS/ FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CURRENT SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER. FORECAST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO 42F PER CSTAR AND LOCAL HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH WOULD SUGGEST FOR MELTING TO OCCUR AND ADD TO THE RIVERS/STREAMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 KBGM MOST 12Z MODELS HV COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF LOPRESMVG NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM RMNS THE FURTHEST EAST, THEREFORE THE WARMEST SOLN. THE EC/GFS AGREE ON A POSN OVR NJ BY 00Z MONDAY WHILE THE CMC IS A COMPROMISE SOLN. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE CONVERGING TWD A TRACK NR BUT JUST ONSHORE OF THE COAST AND THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY CLDR, HV GONE WITH GFS FOR THERMAL DETAILS AND THUS PTYPE. THIS MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN OVR THE LK PLAIN BTWN 12Z-15Z IN THE MRNG. BY 18Z, RAIN/SNOW LINE SHUD RUN FM ABOUT COOPERSTOWN TO OWEGO, THEN FM DELAWARE TO WYOMING CNTY BY 00Z AND ADVANCING QUICKLY SOUTH THRU SUN NGT. AS THIS CHANGEOVER LINE TRANSITIONS SOUTHEAST, EXPECT A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN (AN HR OR TWO AT MOST). SOME MINOR ICING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS SUN NGT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS STILL LOOK FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMNTS BTWN 18Z SUN-12Z MON ON THE ORDER OF 6-10 INCHES ACRS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VLY/TUG HILL AND NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. FORESEE A WINTER STORM WARNING AT SOME POINT DRG THE OVRNGT SHIFT WITH AN ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH. ONLY EXPECTING ABOUT 1-3 INCHES ACRS NEPA, IF THAT, IN SOME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 new cobb output for rochester for 18z Nam just kills us w/ bout 40 inches of snow! Unbelievable! No literally UNBELIEVABLE. I see a determined east shift in this storm. We shall see. The GFS did go west W/ precip at noon. not sure about the 18z. Here is link to Bufkit Cobb totals. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 from +6C to +1C in london ontario in the last couple hours as the front went through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 from +6C to +1C in london ontario in the last couple hours as the front went through There is still hope...I hope...I'm @ +4.0 c here in the west end of Ottawa....any estimation when the front will go through here...around 19h00 or even later...I have to be on the roads at times between 17h30 and 22h30....here in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 @ 16h00 Algonquin Park was @ -0.5 c and Bancroft (to the south and slightly east) was @ +2.9 c with the wind from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 There is still hope...I hope...I'm @ +4.0 c here in the west end of Ottawa....any estimation when the front will go through here...around 19h00 or even later...I have to be on the roads at times between 17h30 and 22h30....here in Ottawa. if i had to estimate the earliest around 10pm id say, but could be a bit later or a bit earlier, though im leaning bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 @ 16h00 Algonquin Park was @ -0.5 c and Bancroft (to the south and slightly east) was @ +2.9 c with the wind from the east. yeah i think bancroft is about to switch if you look on EC radar, that lighter green is where the snow is and that is about to come into bancroft.....verus the brights over ottawa. its not far but its painfully slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 new cobb output for rochester for 18z Nam just kills us w/ bout 40 inches of snow! Unbelievable! No literally UNBELIEVABLE. I see a determined east shift in this storm. We shall see. The GFS did go west W/ precip at noon. not sure about the 18z. Here is link to Bufkit Cobb totals. http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kroc I hear you there. Hard to believe 31+" for Rome http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=rme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.