Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 If this pans out, it isnt gonna be pretty. This would be good. Seriously though, ottawa in the 8-10" zone while pretty much everywhere around it is in the 10-14"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sarnia ontario is down to 0C and env canada has issued a WSW for parry sound-muskoka cottage country. the wind shift seems to be on a line east of windsor and east of sarnia to south of parry sound to in between pettawa and pembroke currently (between north bay and ottawa). map for those interested http://www.weatherof...ex_e.html?id=ON Could the front reach Ottawa in the next couple of hours? I'm at 1.2C while the airport is up to 4C (40F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm a big RGEM fan now. It flips me to snow by 0Z tomorrow and has well in excess of 10mm after that ..maybe closer to 20 mm. sarnia ontario is down to 0C and env canada has issued a WSW for parry sound-muskoka cottage country. the wind shift seems to be on a line east of windsor and east of sarnia to south of parry sound to in between pettawa and pembroke currently (between north bay and ottawa). map for those interested http://www.weatherof...ex_e.html?id=ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Welp, everybody wins on the 12z Euro, especially C & E NY. ALY is going to need to add S VT and another strip or 2 of counties in the HV to the WSW if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm a big RGEM fan now. It flips me to snow by 0Z tomorrow and has well in excess of 10mm after that ..maybe closer to 20 mm. 12z Euro might be even better than that.. around 1" liquid equivalent snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That GFS clown map had 1" in ALB, 5" here and 10" in Fonda ....so obviously a very close call and if it is heavy - dynamics could flip elevated areas to snow pretty fast. 12z Euro gives GFL a nice snowfall sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd approve of that....make up all the snow we lose on the snow shoeing trails and then some. 12z Euro might be even better than that.. around 1" liquid equivalent snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd approve of that....make up all the snow we lose on the snow shoeing trails and then some. Yeah someone's gonna get lucky and end up in that thin zone of significant snow as the front slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z Euro track is ever so slightly east of 0z run, but not much... 12z Track... H30- Sub 1012 over Central VA H36- Sub 1008 over Central NJ H42- Sub 1008 over RI H48- Sub 1008 in Gulf of ME 0z Track... H36- Sub 1012 over Southwest VA H42- Sub 1008 over Central VA H48- Sub 1008 over PHL H54- Sub 1008 over Eastern LI Sound H60- Sub 1008 along coast b/t CC and Portland H66- Sub 1012 in Gulf of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z Euro track is ever so slightly east of 0z run, but not much... 12z Track... H30- Sub 1012 over Central VA H36- Sub 1008 over Central NJ H42- Sub 1008 over RI H48- Sub 1008 in Gulf of ME 0z Track... H36- Sub 1012 over Southwest VA H42- Sub 1008 over Central VA H48- Sub 1008 over PHL H54- Sub 1008 over Eastern LI Sound H60- Sub 1008 along coast b/t CC and Portland H66- Sub 1012 in Gulf of ME I'm guessing this means Ottawa totally misses out on the second storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm guessing this means Ottawa totally misses out on the second storm? Nah your fine. Looks like Ottawa changes over around H18 / 1AM Tonight. Thereafter, you get back-to-back 6-hour periods of .25-.50 QPF as snow, so probably about 5-10" worth verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 from what i can tell on the free maps + qpf, the euro really has trended away from a second storm and is just more or less the waves moving along the baroclinc zone. as it moves across, everyone changes from rain to snow. it looks to me NE NY and N VT would get the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nah your fine. Looks like Ottawa changes over around H18 / 1AM Tonight. Thereafter, you get back-to-back 6-hour periods of .25-.50 QPF as snow, so probably about 5-10" worth verbatim. Good news. When would the snow actually taper off? by mid afternoon tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good news. When would the snow actually taper off? by mid afternoon tomorrow? Yeah, its still snowing thru 1PM, and then precip has ended by 7PM, so split the difference and say maybe 4PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 from what i can tell on the free maps + qpf, the euro really has trended away from a second storm and is just more or less the waves moving along the baroclinc zone. as it moves across, everyone changes from rain to snow. it looks to me NE NY and N VT would get the most snow. It still looks like we could get 6" out of this storm after the changeover though. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GFS = 6 inches 12z NAM = 27 inches hahahaha... NAM must just be completely off! I wish I could blend the two, but the NAM must be having initalization problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 from what i can tell on the free maps + qpf, the euro really has trended away from a second storm and is just more or less the waves moving along the baroclinc zone. as it moves across, everyone changes from rain to snow. it looks to me NE NY and N VT would get the most snow. lookin good for the NEK of VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden 1:13 PM EST Saturday 05 March 2011 Winter storm warning for Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden changed from Rainfall warning ..Snow at times heavy and freezing rain threatening this afternoon.. A frontal system is currently extending from Southern Michigan to Southern Georgian Bay to Petawawa. Along this frontal system, rain mixed with snow and patchy freezing rain will change over to snow at times heavy this afternoon from west to east as this frontal system moves southeastward. Further to the north, snow at times heavy will continue and taper off by late this afternoon and early evening. 5 to 10 cm with local amounts reaching 15 cm have already fallen since early this morning, another 5 to 10 cm is expected before the snowfall tapers off. Travelling conditions along and north of this frontal system are quite hazardous. People should be prepared to adjust travel plans as required. Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation and will update and issue warnings as necessary this afternoon and tonight. not a drop of rainfall had fallen this morning and they continued the rainfall warning through just now, even though it had been snowing since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GFS = 6 inches 12z NAM = 27 inches hahahaha... NAM must just be completely off! I wish I could blend the two, but the NAM must be having initalization problems lol The NAM is just totally messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden 1:13 PM EST Saturday 05 March 2011 Winter storm warning for Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden changed from Rainfall warning ..Snow at times heavy and freezing rain threatening this afternoon.. A frontal system is currently extending from Southern Michigan to Southern Georgian Bay to Petawawa. Along this frontal system, rain mixed with snow and patchy freezing rain will change over to snow at times heavy this afternoon from west to east as this frontal system moves southeastward. Further to the north, snow at times heavy will continue and taper off by late this afternoon and early evening. 5 to 10 cm with local amounts reaching 15 cm have already fallen since early this morning, another 5 to 10 cm is expected before the snowfall tapers off. Travelling conditions along and north of this frontal system are quite hazardous. People should be prepared to adjust travel plans as required. Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation and will update and issue warnings as necessary this afternoon and tonight. How long before the WSW is extended to Ottawa do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Is the cold front moving a bit faster than expected? i think its about on target give or take a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i think its about on target give or take a little bit. So the snow should arrive maybe a little after 9pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How long before the WSW is extended to Ottawa do you think? they wont, since the RGEM is really showing less than 5cm of snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 lookin good for the NEK of VT? Yeah, that area is crushed on the Euro. Over 1.25qpf as snow... easily 12"+ verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So the snow should arrive maybe a little after 9pm? the SREF spread is anywhere from 7 pm -1 am just have to see what happens. pettawawa is ticking cooler now i see. just cant get over Env Canadas bust there......heavy rainfall warning, and now there forecast has for up to 40cm / 16 inches of snow lol. and they only changed the forrecast for heavy rainfall after 20cm / 8 inches fell thats the problem when all you use is 1 model. when looking at the model consensus i determined that up to 45 cm of snow / 18 inches would fall possibly up there (see my post from yesterday). it wasnt very hard if you use all the tools avaiable, yet EC only uses 1 for some unknown reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BTV has converted all Watches to Warnings for 8-16 across the North Country of NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 they wont, since the RGEM is really showing less than 5cm of snow probably. Do you agree with that, or are you still going with 4-8"? Honestly, EC has been really bad over the past couple of years. I mean no offense to the individual mets who work there but, as a whole, Canada is poorly served by an agency which relies on one model, particularly one which has a known warm bias. I mean, what a bust for pembroke! The same goes for the UK, where the UK Met office hasa notorious warm bias, and has consequently busted horribly on their past two winter seasonal forecasts. For a country like Canada, which gets extreme weather, we need an agency that relies on more than one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The NAM (WRF) almost always capitulates I'm afraid..... It is a good model for meso stuff like LES. It can sometimes fire off a warning shot on some aspect of a system out in the 48 to 72 hour range, but if you don't see the other models following it then you know it is on crack. LOL Inside 24 hours it will do well on meso features like low level cold etc. So I assume from about the 0Z run tonight it will be rather accurate. 12z GFS = 6 inches 12z NAM = 27 inches hahahaha... NAM must just be completely off! I wish I could blend the two, but the NAM must be having initalization problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That's bizarre if they really only use one model. I know ALY has always used the RGEM along with the other US models. Let's face it - the NWS understands how bad their models are and therefore has to use foreign models. the SREF spread is anywhere from 7 pm -1 am just have to see what happens. pettawawa is ticking cooler now i see. just cant get over Env Canadas bust there......heavy rainfall warning, and now there forecast has for up to 40cm / 16 inches of snow lol. and they only changed the forrecast for heavy rainfall after 20cm / 8 inches fell thats the problem when all you use is 1 model. when looking at the model consensus i determined that up to 45 cm of snow / 18 inches would fall possibly up there (see my post from yesterday). it wasnt very hard if you use all the tools avaiable, yet EC only uses 1 for some unknown reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the euro is very agressive with hanging the precip back after the changeover. no other model really does this as far as i can tell, as it really slows the progress of the precip into the cold sector as the cold outpaces it. the NAM is off in its own world. the GFS/GEM are more progressive but would still deliver significant accums to montreal with lighter accums in ottawa. the progress of the precip will be interesting to watch and im looking forward to the 18z models (want to see if they start hanging back precip like the euro) and 15z SREF before i put accums out for after the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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