CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 CTP has posted a WSW to PA's northern tier. Based on a closer look of the 12z NAM-GFS / 0z Euro, I think BUF would be justified to post a WSW to their 7 common border counties with BGM + Jefferson. West of that line is a little dicey... could go either way depending on which solution(s) end up winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 put the snowblower on the Ark and ur GTG. I'm not a buyer for big snowfall in CNY just yet...been faked out too many times even <24 hrs. Speaking of fake outs...ur trading doing ok? Was long the doomsday trade this week oil gld slw, was nice. Excellent point, and my feeling exactly. The NAM almost always overdoes things. I personally am not expecting much from thesecondary at all. It's going to track too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 temp dropped from +7C to +2C in one hour in windsor as the winds shifted from SW to N. still snowing in upper ottawa valley, must be close to 8 inches now based on obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Excellent point, and my feeling exactly. The NAM almost always overdoes things. I personally am not expecting much from thesecondary at all. It's going to track too far east. the NAM is almost certainly wrong. only the 12z euro can save it now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The 12Z NAM now drops the freezing air down to here by evening tomorrow and verbatim would mean ice for awhile... Assume it is still gonna correct a bit more east so this is probably a good sign. temp dropped from +7C to +2C in one hour in windsor as the winds shifted from SW to N. still snowing in upper ottawa valley, must be close to 8 inches now based on obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So far today, I've picked up 1/3 of an inch of RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 But won't Ottawa flip to some decent anafrontal snow later today/tonight even if they largely miss the second area of precip tomorrow afternoon and night? temp dropped from +7C to +2C in one hour in windsor as the winds shifted from SW to N. still snowing in upper ottawa valley, must be close to 8 inches now based on obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You're sort of in an unfortunate spot picking up all the rain from wave #1. I'm just as glad to be dry slotted until tomorrow morning sometime. So far today, I've picked up 1/3 of an inch of RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Snowstormcancuk made a great observation in the central forum, mentioning that the heaviest precip axis is about 100 miles further SE with the rain than all the models had it yesterday: Back to the rain, the models didn't really misplace the front or the upper level energy. Everything in that regard looks on track. I don't think they really picked up on the strength of the llj ahead of the front, and that's been the focus of where the heavy rain has been. he is right though, the axis of heavy precip is defintely further SE than where the models had it even just 24 hours ago. probably has important implications the rest of the way, likely less precip and less snow after the changeover the further NW you are perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 CTP has posted a WSW to PA's northern tier. Based on a closer look of the 12z NAM-GFS / 0z Euro, I think BUF would be justified to post a WSW to their 7 common border counties with BGM + Jefferson. West of that line is a little dicey... could go either way depending on which solution(s) end up winning out. Wow... entire cwa. This really could be a winner for all of Upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'll have to look over there... I forget that most of the Ontario people from Toronto, Niagara, etc. southwestwards post in there. Seems like they might have more in common with their Upstate neighbors in Greater BUF here ...but flip a coin I guess..... Snowstormcancuk made a great observation in the central forum, mentioning that the heaviest precip axis is about 100 miles further SE with the rain than all the models had it yesterday: Back to the rain, the models didn't really misplace the front or the upper level energy. Everything in that regard looks on track. I don't think they really picked up on the strength of the llj ahead of the front, and that's been the focus of where the heavy rain has been. he is right though, the axis of heavy precip is defintely further SE than where the models had it even just 24 hours ago. probably has important implications the rest of the way, likely less precip and less snow after the changeover the further NW you are perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.110306T0900Z-110307T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. * TIMING...SUNDAY....BEGINNING NEAR DAYBREAK....TAPERING OFF LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NYZ003>008-013-014-021-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.110306T1300Z-110307T0900Z/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... WELLSVILLE 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY... FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. * TIMING...SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I know the snow will be wet at the onset, but I wonder how long it stays "wet" ...seems to me some good low level cold collapses in. Even the heatwave NAM has us under 0C at 2M well before getting the 0C 850 line here. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.110306T0900Z-110307T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. * TIMING...SUNDAY....BEGINNING NEAR DAYBREAK....TAPERING OFF LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NYZ003>008-013-014-021-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.110306T1300Z-110307T0900Z/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... WELLSVILLE 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY... FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. * TIMING...SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Snowstormcancuk made a great observation in the central forum, mentioning that the heaviest precip axis is about 100 miles further SE with the rain than all the models had it yesterday: Back to the rain, the models didn't really misplace the front or the upper level energy. Everything in that regard looks on track. I don't think they really picked up on the strength of the llj ahead of the front, and that's been the focus of where the heavy rain has been. he is right though, the axis of heavy precip is defintely further SE than where the models had it even just 24 hours ago. probably has important implications the rest of the way, likely less precip and less snow after the changeover the further NW you are perhaps. Regardless, the snowpack (what little there is) is holding here. It's an icy mess on the side streets. I post in the accuweather forums sometimes and am telling them that the NAM often overdoes things. I'm also reminding them of February 2nd and how models were predicting a 20" storm for Toronto, only day or two before the event. The fact is storms that big rarely occur even in Ottawa and Montreal and, yes, even back in the days of our parents and grandparents. It's usually places in the Martimes or NNE that get those, thanks to the ocean moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Quebec City is getting hammered with heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Regardless, the snowpack (what little there is) is holding here. It's an icy mess on the side streets. I post in the accuweather forums sometimes and am telling them that the NAM often overdoes things. I'm also reminding them of February 2nd and how models were predicting a 20" storm for Toronto, only day or two before the event. The fact is storms that big rarely occur even in Ottawa and Montreal and, yes, even back in the days of our parents and grandparents. It's usually places in the Martimes or NNE that get those, thanks to the ocean moisture. i checked out the accuweather forums a while back. i noticed that its a good thing you are there to keep everyone grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 T-minus 15 minutes until the Euro initializes, just enough time to get the 'mail' and get back for the show. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1145 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --1140 AM UPDATE...WILL BE ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA FOR SUN/SUN NT. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL IN TWO CAMPS... GFS/CMC/SREFS ALL TAKE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...NAM STILL A BIT FURTHER WEST. POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE GEN VLY AND EAST...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FROM GENESEE RIVER EAST...SOMEWHAT LESS TO WEST. WILL SPLIT WATCH INTO TWO SEGMENTS FOR TIMING...4 AM TO 10 PM WEST...AND 8 AM TO 4 AM MON EAST. WILL UPDATE ALL GRIDS AND FORECASTS BY 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 From what i've seen, seems as though Central NY is gonna be the battleground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i checked out the accuweather forums a while back. i noticed that its a good thing you are there to keep everyone grounded. OL check them out now. Go to the Canadian accuweather forum. I mean, I don't mean to sound condescending, but they seriously seem to believe Ottawa could get 15-20". having said this, they do a good job at posting the different model info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Quebec City is getting hammered with heavy snow! Observed at: Quebec Lesage Int'l Airport Date: 12:17 PM EST Saturday 5 March 2011 Condition: Heavy Snow Pressure: 102.3 kPa Tendency: falling Visibility: 0.2 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I remember a storm exactly like this one that hit the western Apps. in 1999 I think. It started as a big warm rain event and then the front moved thru and stalled from Albany to Scranton to Philly. A strong (much stronger than anticipated) low pressure moved right up the spine of the Apps and left about 1-2 feet of snow about 100- 150 miles west of it's track. Rochester got 23 inches of snow in about 12 hrs. with some help from L. Ontario. Blizzard warnings were issued for maybe the 2nd time in my life. The first was THE STORM (duh, 1993). 0 visibility. Awesome. Then we had like 19 inches 3 days later. 42 inches on the ground. My hometown made it on CNN!! I was in heaven. If only Anderson Cooper was there. LOL> Does anyone remember what the NWS forecast for the above storm was? How about what the NAM vs. GFS vs. Euro was saying. It was a very similiar situation in March 3-4 1999 as it is now and I believe the 23" totals were severely underpredicted... Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 From what i've seen, seems as though Central NY is gonna be the battleground? The only model that's really throwing a wrench into things is the NAM as far as C NY is concerned. BUT, even on the 12z NAM... the northwestern half of C NY (Cntrl S Tier northeast thru to the MV) would still be subject to a warning snowfall. At this point, I think your area is just about a lock for a significant snowfall (6+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The only model that's really throwing a wrench into things is the NAM as far as C NY is concerned. BUT, even on the 12z NAM... the northwestern half of C NY (Cntrl S Tier northeast thru to the MV) would still be subject to a warning snowfall, so without a doubt, the odds of a significant snowfall are certainly increasing. If this pans out, it isnt gonna be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You're sort of in an unfortunate spot picking up all the rain from wave #1. I'm just as glad to be dry slotted until tomorrow morning sometime. Not so sure about that rick. Looks to me like the precip to the north wants to build southward. Warm front looks like it hit a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm waiting for the temp to dive in Pembroke/Petawawa.... Still says 1C to 2C there on the mesowest site... Quebec City is getting hammered with heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 OL check them out now. Go to the Canadian accuweather forum. I mean, I don't mean to sound condescending, but they seriously seem to believe Ottawa could get 15-20". having said this, they do a good job at posting the different model info. 15 -20 inches here in Ottawa would be great..but quite epic in terms of snowfall..here in the west end I'm holding steady at +2.8 c with 98% RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm waiting for the temp to dive in Pembroke/Petawawa.... Still says 1C to 2C there on the mesowest site... Observed at: CFB Petawawa Date: 12:48 PM EST Saturday 5 March 2011 Condition: Snow Pressure: 101.6 kPa Tendency: falling Visibility: 1 km Temperature: 0.6°C Dewpoint: -1.1°C Humidity: 88 % Wind: NNE 4 km/h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sarnia ontario is down to 0C and env canada has issued a WSW for parry sound-muskoka cottage country. the wind shift seems to be on a line east of windsor and east of sarnia to south of parry sound to in between pettawa and pembroke currently (between north bay and ottawa). map for those interested http://www.weatherof...ex_e.html?id=ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sarnia ontario is down to 0C and env canada has issued a WSW for parry sound-muskoka cottage country. the wind shift seems to be on a line east of windsor and east of sarnia to south of parry sound to in between pettawa and pembroke currently (between north bay and ottawa). map for those interested http://www.weatherof...ex_e.html?id=ON Is the cold front moving a bit faster than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not so sure about that rick. Looks to me like the precip to the north wants to build southward. Warm front looks like it hit a wall 12z Euro gives GFL a nice snowfall sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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