Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 looking at obs and radar, it looks like the upper ottawa valley picked up 6-8 inches / 15-20cm of snow so far. big bust by env canada up there so far. the GEM has been too warm, but the US models a bit too cold so far. as is usually the case, a compromise is in order, weighed towards the US models a bit. as we sit here in ottawa and montreal now, all we can do is wait for the snow line to arrive later this evening and overnight, the eariler the better hopefully.... it will be a wet day today, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Is that the NAM or the GFS? 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z nam looks more realistic ,places the heaviest toward cny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z nam looks more realistic ,places the heaviest toward cny. still moderate snow for Ottawa as per the 12z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 about to cross the freezing mark. At -0.2C now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Give me another 75 miles east. 12z nam looks more realistic ,places the heaviest toward cny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 about to cross the freezing mark. At -0.2C now. I'm at +0.9 c and 98% RH...I may be reading a tad high, but whatever is falling from the sky looks like light rain here in the west end....(Bridlewood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 still moderate snow for Ottawa as per the 12z nam? for storm 2, yeah its probably about 6-8 inches /15-20cm in ottawa and 1-2 feet in and around montreal may have to drive the other way tomorrow morning i defintely think your concerns for storm 2 slipping east of ottawa are very valid. on radar tomorrow, watch for the backedge of the precip from the NW. if it doesnt go through the area, then you will get more snow. if it goes throguh the area and then has to come back at the area from the S, then obviously less snow as that mean the baroclinc zone is further S and E and thus thats where the bigger snows will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm at +0.9 c and 98% RH...I may be reading a tad high, but whatever is falling from the sky looks like light rain here in the west end....(Bridlewood) yeah its plain rain here too now. the ice is melting. now all we can do is wait and watch what happens to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Take a ride out toward Pembroke. You know I camped in Gatineau Park numerous times over the years (mostly 80s/90s) and yet I never once drove northwest of Kanata. One day I'll have to explore that uncharted territory. I'm at +0.9 c and 98% RH...I may be reading a tad high, but whatever is falling from the sky looks like light rain here in the west end....(Bridlewood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I think the arctic air can be a bully also....gotta watch the press south and southeast.... Even the 6Z NAM with its west solution had 2M temps slip to freezing amost down to ALB during the precipitation... Looks like 12Z is a tad east, but haven't seen 2M temps. for storm 2, yeah its probably about 6-8 inches /15-20cm in ottawa and 1-2 feet in and around montreal may have to drive the other way tomorrow morning i defintely think your concerns for storm 2 slipping east of ottawa are very valid. on radar tomorrow, watch for the backedge of the precip from the NW. if it doesnt go through the area, then you will get more snow. if it goes throguh the area and then has to come back at the area from the S, then obviously less snow as that mean the baroclinc zone is further S and E and thus thats where the bigger snows will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 you can clearly see the rain-snow line on this regionall EC radar http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=ONT brighter colors are rain and the duller to the north and snow. looks to be between ottawa and pembroke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I think the arctic air can be a bully also....gotta watch the press south and southeast.... Even the 6Z NAM with its west solution had 2M temps slip to freezing amost down to ALB during the precipitation... Looks like 12Z is a tad east, but haven't seen 2M temps. yes good point, the arctic air is really pressing in here. your CNY-YUL jackpot from the other day may end working out quite nicely.......still too early for the back patting though just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 6z nam prints out 34" of snow in buf hahah wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd still take the 12z NAM...looks a bit more realistic. KBUF finally acknowledged the potential for significant snows in the AFD: AT WHICH TIME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME HEAVY WET SNOW. WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. ALSO EAGERLY AWAITING 12Z RUNS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Light rain has been falling all morning.. The temperature just jumped up to 35 degrees.. Now just gotta put up with this rain annoyance today, before we get into the good stuff, hopefully overnight, or very early tomorrow morning at the latest! Bring it on! Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i can't believe how different the NAM and GFS are only 30 hours out.. were talking the difference between THIRTY INCHES OF SNOW!!! whats going to make 12z any different?? NAM showing a huge snowstorm again, and GFS will go east. Only thing keeping my hopes alive is storms have been stronger, and farther west than progged a lot of this year I'd still take the 12z NAM...looks a bit more realistic. KBUF finally acknowledged the potential for significant snows in the AFD: AT WHICH TIME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME HEAVY WET SNOW. WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. ALSO EAGERLY AWAITING 12Z RUNS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i can't believe how different the NAM and GFS are only 30 hours out.. were talking the difference between THIRTY INCHES OF SNOW!!! whats going to make 12z any different?? NAM showing a huge snowstorm again, and GFS will go east. Only thing keeping my hopes alive is storms have been stronger, and farther west than progged a lot of this year NAM very often, has an over juiced, and over amplified system, during these lead times. But even cutting the insane amounts of qpf that are depicted on the NAM, a very large portion of our region is going to have a bonified late season snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM very often, has an over juiced, and over amplified system, during these lead times. But even cutting the insane amounts of qpf that are depicted on the NAM, a very large portion of our region is going to have a bonified late season snowstorm.... yes, often times it is over amplified, and juiced.. but it corrects itself by now, or at least makes a jump in the direction of the other camp.. its holding strong for what? 7 runs straight now?? NAM cannot be discounted. I REALLY want to see the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Light rain has been falling all morning.. The temperature just jumped up to 35 degrees.. Now just gotta put up with this rain annoyance today, before we get into the good stuff, hopefully overnight, or very early tomorrow morning at the latest! Bring it on! Cheers, Scratch +1.4 c here in the west end of Ottawa... (34.5 f)...very light rain and 98% RH....I honestly can't see if getting to +6 c here in Ottawa without the sun coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i can't believe how different the NAM and GFS are only 30 hours out.. were talking the difference between THIRTY INCHES OF SNOW!!! whats going to make 12z any different?? NAM showing a huge snowstorm again, and GFS will go east. Only thing keeping my hopes alive is storms have been stronger, and farther west than progged a lot of this year 1.5"-1.7" of precip as snow from KJHW-KBUF. For KBUF, BUFKIT has 1.70" of liquid as snow with anywhere from 24-36" (24.5", 25.8", 36.0") depending on how you calculate the ratios. For KJHW, it has 1.53" with anywhere from 23-27" of snow (23.0", 24.4", 27.5"). Take out an inch or two from both of those because it wants snow even though it's above freezing aloft for the first 1-2 hours. ...And those are obviously overdone...I'd go with a straight 10:1 ratio to take into account the NAM's bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 ...And those are obviously overdone...I'd go with a straight 10:1 ratio to take into account the NAM's bias. I'd take a late-season 20"er any day here in KROC... Now lets see what the 12z GFS and Euro have to say...the NAM moved their way a bit, so I'm hoping they'll move it's way a bit as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 RGEM defintely does not look like tha NAM east, more of just a wave train as the secondary gets going late as the southern energy is not impressive, everyone does changovedr to some snow as the front comes through, but the secondary hardest hit areas NE NY and VT, total miss for ottawa through WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 +1.4 c here in the west end of Ottawa... (34.5 f)...very light rain and 98% RH....I honestly can't see if getting to +6 c here in Ottawa without the sun coming out. Temp is sitting at + 1.7 C right now, light rain, and the winds are out of SE at 15 Km/h.. I'm with you, there's no way that we get up as high as +6 C in Montreal or where you are in Ottawa, today.. Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS holds, slightly east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GFS looks reminscent of the 0z Euro based on a quick look. Equal opportunity mauler for nearly all of Upstate outside of far W NY / Immediate CD. Looking thru the 3-hour intervals on SV, doesn't really give anyone an insane snowfall (alah NAM), but looks like .50-1.00 QPF (locally more) as snow from the Gen Valley eastward... including all of N NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 41 and light rain here. Should I start work on the ark, or make sure the snowblower is ready to go? Livin' on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 for storm 2, yeah its probably about 6-8 inches /15-20cm in ottawa and 1-2 feet in and around montreal may have to drive the other way tomorrow morning i defintely think your concerns for storm 2 slipping east of ottawa are very valid. on radar tomorrow, watch for the backedge of the precip from the NW. if it doesnt go through the area, then you will get more snow. if it goes throguh the area and then has to come back at the area from the S, then obviously less snow as that mean the baroclinc zone is further S and E and thus thats where the bigger snows will be. Incredible how Montreal averages slightly less snow than Ottawa yet often gets the heavier accumulations. When do you think we change back over to snow? It looks like there's a brief break Sunday afternoon/evening before the second storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Incredible how Montreal averages slightly less snow than Ottawa yet often gets the heavier accumulations. When do you think we change back over to snow? It looks like there's a brief break Sunday afternoon/evening before the second storm? for ottawa, not seeing any reason to make changes. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/14373-march-4-8-upstate-ny-north-country-winter-storm/page__view__findpost__p__531195 still favor the eastward solutions for the second storm. not expecting much in ottawa unless the euro moves towards the NAM at 12z (doubtful). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm just back from my 1.5 mile snow shoe to the Christman Nature Sanctuary near here.... ...about 1/2 mile on our property and then through the woods to the sanctuary. I had it all to myself - assume people thought this is too mild for snow shoeing (45F now), but still tons of corn snow in the woods (2 feet in places) so Spring conditions, but gotta enjoy all the permutations of the snow season. GFS says rain to ice to snow here...If I get 3 or 4 inches on the back side I consider that a success...my over/under is about 3" maybe. No expectations of 12"+ here so no pressure and anything more is gravy. 41 and light rain here. Should I start work on the ark, or make sure the snowblower is ready to go? Livin' on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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