CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That's the way it goes here often.... barely elevated and west of ALB enough for wet snow...but we won't know for sure until it's almost here..... Where does the actual surface low track on the Euro? H36- Sub 1012 over Sw VA H42- Sub 1008 over Central VA H48- Sub 1008 over PHL H54- Sub 1008 over Ern LI Sound H60- Sub 1008 along coast b/t CC and Portland ME H66- Sub 1012 over Gulf of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Generally speaking a track like that is quite nice here..... Gonna be fun because that is serious arctic air that presses down from Quebec/Ontario...could surprise some. The NAM is way out on it's own apparently. H36- Sub 1012 over Sw VA H42- Sub 1008 over Central VA H48- Sub 1008 over PHL H54- Sub 1008 over Ern LI Sound H60- Sub 1008 along coast b/t CC and Portland ME H66- Sub 1012 over Gulf of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z GFS gives KBUF 7 inches of snow, while the NAM dumps nearly 2 feet.. 6z NAM is out to 42 hours.. a bit east (rochester gets destroyed again) but WNY and Finger Lakes are hit with significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_036.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_042.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_048.shtml i take back my statement.. Buffalo gets CRUSHED... another 20+ inch run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p06_048l.gif 6 hour precip.. WOW. frozen in WNY and points ENE.. buff rochester cuse corridor gets crushed. is NAM onto something ? or crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_p06_048l.gif 6 hour precip.. WOW. frozen in WNY and points ENE.. buff rochester cuse corridor gets crushed. is NAM onto something ? or crazy Oh my Gosh! I wish this would come to fruition. I cant wait to see the print out of storm total on this run. I bet the Cobb total for Roc is over 24 inches. It will start backing off now I bet! Fun to see just 36 hrs out though! Remember 2 years ago when the Nam was the goto when stuff got close. This season has been weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 WS Watch from NWS Binghamton for all of C NY... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 356 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS... AUBURN... SYRACUSE... CORNING... HORNELL... WATKINS GLEN... ELMIRA... ITHACA... ONEIDA... UTICA... ROME... CORTLAND... NORWICH... ONEONTA... OWEGO... BINGHAMTON...WALTON...DELHI...MONTROSE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS: CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARDS: SNOW. SNOW MAY BE INTENSE AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. * TIMING: RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Updated HPC... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 355 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2011 VALID 12Z SAT MAR 05 2011 - 12Z TUE MAR 08 2011 DAY 1-3... ...GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... NRN STREAM SHRTWV IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND THEN NRN NY/NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...DRIVING COLDER ACROSS THE NERN U.S. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUN AS SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ASSUMING A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE MID ATL. ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WILL HELP DIRECT A LONG FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX/WRN ATL INTO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE COLD AIR WHERE DEEP FGEN/FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR HVY AMTS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE S IS AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS STILL PRESENTING A FAIR AMT OF UNCERTAINTY. DISCOUNTED THE NAM WHICH TRACKS THE LOW OUT OF THE S FURTHER TO THE NW THAN THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWS FURTHER TO THE W AS WELL. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A PROGRESSIVE/ELY SOLN IS THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM MID/UPR LVL RIDGE THAT SHOULD HINDER ITS ELY PROGRESSION. THAT SAID...OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 21Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF. THIS PLACES THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ON DAY FROM CNTRL NY NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENG...WITH DAY 2 SNOW TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NRN ME. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO THE S...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL PA TO DOWNEAST ME. THIS COMPROMISE SOLN WAS CONTINUED INTO DAY 3...WITH THE SCOPE OF HVY SNOWS LIMITED TO NRN NEW ENG...PRIMARILY NRN ME AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. PEREIRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 WS Watch from NWS Burlington for all of N NY... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID... OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The 6z Nam shows 33 inches of snow for KROC!!!!! I'm gonna save this forever!!!!! OH my GOD! Lets see what happens. I'd be happy to get 25 percent of that. This is prob the most I've ever seen forecast from the NAM for KROC! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 WS Watch from NWS Albany for areas N & W of ALY in E NY... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 425 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...WARRENSBURG ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK... FRANKFORT... DOLGEVILLE... GLOVERSVILLE... JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE... COBLESKILL... MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...ALTAMONT...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND MUCH OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Lmao... the tone of this discussion is just perfect... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 436 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE TRANSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SET UP CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS AS UPPER LVL WAVE ARRIVES OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION ALSO POISED OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE NAM SLOWEST AND DEEPEST WITH DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE. THE ECMWF AND SREF SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE WEST TO EAST TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO AMERICAN MODELS. TO SORT IT ALL OUT...WE HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THESE LATTER SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS...AND TOSSED OUT THE NAM. THIS IDEA BRINGS COLDER AIR SLAMMING INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FAIRLY RAPIDLY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL WARM LAYER ALOFT DURING TRANSITION WHICH MAY INDICATE SLEET IN THE MIX...BUT THIS LOOKS OF SHORT DURATION SO WE DID NOT PLAY IT UP. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND CYCLONGENESIS ON SUNDAY EVENING RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NY. AFTER DETAILING THE THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT AFTER AN INCH OR SO OF PRECEDING RAINFALL A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF QPF WITHIN THE COLD AIR. AFTER RUNNING THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVELY AT 5-10:1 DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PRESENTED ITSELF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. AS MENTIONED...THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT MAINLY NOW FOR SHORT TERM RAINFALL/SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE LOCAL ICE JAM PROBLEMS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM. RIVER POINTS MAY NOT BE AS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING NOW GIVEN PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR... PRECIP AS SNOW AND SHUTTING DOWN RUNOFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD THE FICKLE NAM MODEL COME INTO REALITY IT WOULD BE WARMER AND WETTER THAN EVERYTHING I JUST DISCUSSED AND THE FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE FULLY JUSTIFIED WITH THE WINTER STATEMENT GOING UP IN SMOKE. AHHHH...IT MUST BE MARCH. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM STORM SYSTEM PULLING EAST AND PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AS SNOW SHOWERS. POLAR CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH AND IT/S BACK TO UNSEASONBLY COLD WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S...LOW 30S IF WE/RE LUCKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 6z GFS puts C & E NY over its knee... 8+ easy. With that... I'm going to bed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 24-Hour QPF for the period above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 KALB updated snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 As OL mentioned earlier, the wind direction will play a major part up here. At 3am, the winds shifted from E to S, shooting the temperature up from -3c to +2c. Then, at 4am, the winds again shifted, this time from S to ENE, immediatly dropping the temperature from +2 to -2c. SN+ right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Snowing at a good clip...already a fair bit on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Snowing at a good clip...already a fair bit on the ground. Winds are still E and temp holding steady at -2c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 KALB updated snowmap BGM's hasnt updated theirs in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0zNMM agrees with the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The 6z Nam shows 33 inches of snow for KROC!!!!! I'm gonna save this forever!!!!! OH my GOD! Lets see what happens. I'd be happy to get 25 percent of that. This is prob the most I've ever seen forecast from the NAM for KROC! http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kroc 34.3" for kbuf lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 FR rain now reported at YOW with aq temp of -1c, but Gatineau airport is reporting SN- and -2c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Here's hoping for the best, but i have an awful feeling that Ottawa is going to be too far NW to get anything really significant out of the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow...28.1" for KJHW on the 06z NAM. Largest synoptic storm ever by 2.1". Sort of similar to March 17, 1936, just more east. 18-34" of slop snow in the far western counties. Huge precip amounts...19" on 2.62" of liquid in Buffalo, 34" on 5.17" of liquid just south of the NY/PA border in Corry, PA. 26" of snow on no less than 2.60" of liquid here in Jamestown. Narrative from BUF: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mar17.htm Corry, PA: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/ED2DDE9E-9503-4C75-BD80-C2196C89B575.pdf Pictures here: http://www.forgottenbuffalo.com/forgottenbflofeatures/buffalosnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 FR rain now reported at YOW with aq temp of -1c, but Gatineau airport is reporting SN- and -2c. yes i can confirm frzra here in barrhaven / south ottawa about 2-3 cm of snow below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 looks like there's been a few hours of freezing precip at my end of the city. Just watched Chris St. Clair on the weather network. The maps he used seemed to show Monday's system almost completely missing us to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow...28.1" for KJHW on the 06z NAM. Largest synoptic storm ever by 2.1". Sort of similar to March 17, 1936, just more east. 18-34" of slop snow in the far western counties. Huge precip amounts...19" on 2.62" of liquid in Buffalo, 34" on 5.17" of liquid just south of the NY/PA border in Corry, PA. 26" of snow on no less than 2.60" of liquid here in Jamestown. Narrative from BUF: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mar17.htm Corry, PA: http://www1.ncdc.noa...2196C89B575.pdf Pictures here: http://www.forgotten...uffalosnow.html what a storm man :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 here it comesssssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 looks like there's been a few hours of freezing precip at my end of the city. Just watched Chris St. Clair on the weather network. The maps he used seemed to show Monday's system almost completely missing us to the east. They must be following the 6z GFS which pretty much has the secondary tracking over Long island and giving us maybe a few flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 here it comesssssssssss Is that the NAM or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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