ksstormhunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just pushed out new snowfall forecast for the Upstate NY through 8Mar. Still seeing some potential for snowfall close to 12" in some areas, such as Rochester, Binghampton, Albany. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 at the pic with the gloves awesome pics Gorizer! thans for posting. looks absolutely beautiful, that is a crapload of snow and you can tell from the pics it looks like cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 well the GFS defintely trended towards the NAM with the phase but much less deep with the trough than the NAM. will need to watch it, as thats a couple runs in a row where the GFS has moved that direction. dont see much reason to change my earlier forecast right now. will check back in AM to see the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 well the GFS defintely trended towards the NAM with the phase but much less deep with the trough than the NAM. will need to watch it, as thats a couple runs in a row where the GFS has moved that direction. dont see much reason to change my earlier forecast right now. will check back in AM to see the situation. about time nam gets it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 well the GFS defintely trended towards the NAM with the phase but much less deep with the trough than the NAM. will need to watch it, as thats a couple runs in a row where the GFS has moved that direction. dont see much reason to change my earlier forecast right now. will check back in AM to see the situation. about time nam gets it right The 0z GFS at the surface looks comparable to the 12z ECM still. Vastly different than the NAM in this regard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 kbuf soundings 0z nam bufkit 110307/1400Z 62 31011KT 22.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.0||21.9 0.004|| 4.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 no blocking with a SE ridge in tact.. HOW IS THIS THING OFFSHORE PER GFS.. makes 0 sense. theres no negative tilt along the coast. I take NAM track with GFS speed. i dont buy that the NAM is this far off 5 consisent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just pushed out new snowfall forecast for the Upstate NY through 8Mar. Still seeing some potential for snowfall close to 12" in some areas, such as Rochester, Binghampton, Albany. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf Lock my 20" in for Glens Falls and I will be a smartwxmodel worshiper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Rochesters Cobb output for the Nam. 20 inches. Now lets watch it back track to 4. LOL. BTW: That snow bomb also hit the northern suburbs of Rochester last Feb. It was awesome, easily 18 inches at my house on south shore of Lake Ontario. Very heavy wind driven snow. Snow above my knees. They wanted 50 bucks to plow my driveway (very, very small) but were too busy to come out anyway. see link for this storms output: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Fond memories. Great Pics. We would have had that until May if the winter hadn't died about 4 days later. Still despite the constant heatwave it stayed white till around the last week of March I guess. 45+ inch snow bomb - Feb 2010 - my first try at posting pictures here... hopefully this works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS is over NYC as far as I can see. It didn't move much from 18Z ..maybe 25 miles, in terms of the surface low. With event #2 it is a very narrow strip that could get a heavy wet snow bomb on the GFS...right about over me and points a little northwest. The event is mainly a rain event with that narrow area of +SN. So whoever gets into that good snow consider themselves lucky. no blocking with a SE ridge in tact.. HOW IS THIS THING OFFSHORE PER GFS.. makes 0 sense. theres no negative tilt along the coast. I take NAM track with GFS speed. i dont buy that the NAM is this far off 5 consisent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I remember a storm exactly like this one that hit the western Apps. in 1999 I think. It started as a big warm rain event and then the front moved thru and stalled from Albany to Scranton to Philly. A strong (much stronger than anticipated) low pressure moved right up the spine of the Apps and left about 1-2 feet of snow about 100- 150 miles west of it's track. Rochester got 23 inches of snow in about 12 hrs. with some help from L. Ontario. Blizzard warnings were issued for maybe the 2nd time in my life. The first was THE STORM (duh, 1993). 0 visibility. Awesome. Then we had like 19 inches 3 days later. 42 inches on the ground. My hometown made it on CNN!! I was in heaven. If only Anderson Cooper was there. LOL> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I just watched the local Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto weather reports and not one of them mentioned the possibility of significant snow on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Canadian ticks a hair to the east (vs. 12z) and targets the area from the W. S. Tier, W. FL's (Roc to SYR) then up throught the E. Lake Ontario counties into S. Ontario and points NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just had some light sleet and light snow move through here... 31F. That's the last frozen precipitation I will likely see until Sunday night or so. I just watched the local Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto weather reports and not one of them mentioned the possibility of significant snow on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Canadian ticks a hair to the east (vs. 12z) and targets the area from the W. S. Tier, W. FL's (Roc to SYR) then up throught the E. Lake Ontario counties into S. Ontario and points NE..... Good for Ottawa then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good for Ottawa then? I can't tell from the crappy graphics (B/W)...it looks CLOSE! And with the 12 hour panels, who knows when the changeover occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I can't tell from the crappy graphics (B/W)...it looks CLOSE! And with the 12 hour panels, who knows when the changeover occurs... It looks like this is going to be an amazing storm regardless. 2" of rain followed by 4" + of snow. Not very often that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It looks like this is going to be an amazing storm regardless. 2" of rain followed by 4" + of snow. Not very often that happens. And the wild card in this is that many times in these scenarios, I recall the front being undermodeled with it's strength and eastward push.....these ana fronts are weird buggers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z ECM should be interesting in another 45 minutes. Looks like we could have a few more posters in here than usual for a 1AM run. Just goes to show what is at stake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Temperature holding at about 27F in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BUF 0z NAM.. yeaeaaaaaaah OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=BUF 0z NAM.. yeaeaaaaaaah OK I think the NAM is overdoing it by far. I mean, Ottawa would get crushed with up to 20" of snow, as per the latest run. I mean, the city would be shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 LEK was right on the 0z Canadian. That corridor from southwestern NY northeast thru NC NY is swiffered with 8+ for sure, probably even 12+, but I didn't look at a qpf map... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html LEK (check your mailbox)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Alright, 0z Euro is in. Looking over the run now, details to follow shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ottawa sees a lot of snow on the Euro! Most of Upstate NY does nicely, with an eyeball estimate that the W. MV/into the D'acks get the bullseye prize...Verbaitum, just about all of Upstate gets (eyeballing again, and applying 9:1 ratios) anywhere from 4-10" as a general take, with more in the hills of the D'acks and E. FL's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good night all.....big night tomorrow night, with the fine tuning of this late season surprise!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good night all.....big night tomorrow night, with the fine tuning of this late season surprise!! See ya. 'Cuse game later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ottawa sees a lot of snow on the Euro! Most of Upstate NY does nicely, with an eyeball estimate that the W. MV/into the D'acks get the bullseye prize...Verbaitum, just about all of Upstate gets (eyeballing again, and applying 9:1 ratios) anywhere from 4-10" as a general take, with more in the hills of the D'acks and E. FL's.... Yeah, this is pretty much right. Looks like a high-end advisory / low-end warning snowfall for most everyone, except maybe the CD itself, but the hills n / w of ALY are plastered pretty efficiently. Overall, I'd call the 0z Euro an equal opportunity mauler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That's the way it goes here often.... barely elevated and west of ALB enough for wet snow...but we won't know for sure until it's almost here..... Where does the actual surface low track on the Euro? Yeah, this is pretty much right. Looks like a high-end advisory / low-end warning snowfall for most everyone, except maybe the CD itself, but the hills n / w of ALY are plastered pretty efficiently. Overall, I'd call the 0z Euro an equal opportunity mauler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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