Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking at the 500 mb and looking at the position of the surface low ...this NAM is ultra extreme..... H51... all of W NY / far northern NY / Intl Border friends still getting poundeddd... Sub 1000mb SLP between Williamsport and Scranton PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 H57 has sub 1000mb SLP just north of ALY... W / N NY still getting owned. Well-defined Deformation band overhead there... Just an epic run for W NY up thru North Country and Southeast Ontario. 12+ easily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sorry i just passed out there for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Proof, this will be the one time this season that you'll be closer and first to feel the cold air than the rest of your Ottawa brethren and anyone on this forum....northwest to Southeast and all the way across Upstate will be the motto -3.3 c and 63% RH here ....not really any flakes..yet. I'll try and keep you posted as temps hopefully drop...any idea as to what is a realistic peak temp here in Ottawa. My temps are from my Oregon Scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Pretty bizarre surface low track ..essentially right along the crest of the Appalachians.... Edit: Or maybe I should day the Cordillera (tm Tip) since the Apps bend more toward the east......to be technical about it. H57 has sub 1000mb SLP just north of ALY... W / N NY still getting owned. Well-defined Deformation band overhead there... Just an epic run for W NY up thru North Country and Southeast Ontario. 12+ easily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sorry i just passed out there for a minute Bloody hell...according to the 0Z NAM, winter says "sorry for the rain old boy, let me make it up for you"! What do you think OL? A modicum of hope perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ottawa is crippled on NAM. Definately 24+ verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How much qpf falls with latest NAM in the form of snow for Buffalo. Looks like 1-2 inches! =0 Totally not going to happen. But this the NAM's 4th or 5th consecutive run showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Bloody hell...according to the 0Z NAM, winter says "sorry for the rain old boy, let me make it up for you"! What do you think OL? A modicum of hope perhaps? im not sure of the records offhand (Ottawa blizzard would know) but im fairly certain that would be the worst snowstorm to ever hit ottawa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 im not sure of the records offhand (Ottawa blizzard would know) but im fairly certain that would be the worst snowstorm to ever hit ottawa Ottawa receives about 235 centimetres (93 in) of snowfall annually. Its biggest snowfall was recorded on March 3–4, 1947, with 73 centimetres (2.4 ft) of snow....courtesy of Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 -3.3 c and 63% RH here ....not really any flakes..yet. I'll try and keep you posted as temps hopefully drop...any idea as to what is a realistic peak temp here in Ottawa. My temps are from my Oregon Scientific. you will rise, im guessing we top out around +3C tomorrow afternoon and then start falling later afternoon/evening, and thats when the fun should begin. before that overnight and in the morning, ice will be the issue (if surface temps remain colder due to ottawa valley effect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 H57 has sub 1000mb SLP just north of ALY... W / N NY still getting owned. Well-defined Deformation band overhead there... Just an epic run for W NY up thru North Country and Southeast Ontario. 12+ easily... How far " just north"?? I can think of at least 5 of us hoping that 40-50 miles north of ALB is enough. LOL. Looking like the foothills of the 'daks north is still in this thing. Cool. I am getting ready for bed and I just asked the wife if she wants to flip the coin to decide if I put the plow on or wait. I am waiting it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 im not sure of the records offhand (Ottawa blizzard would know) but im fairly certain that would be the worst snowstorm to ever hit ottawa According to Wikipedia, the record is 73 cms (2.4 feet) on, coincidentally, March 3-4 1947! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Buffalo receives many storms over 2 feet in a 24 hour period. But Lake Effect is the only way we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How much qpf falls with latest NAM in the form of snow for Buffalo. Looks like 1-2 inches! =0 Totally not going to happen. But this the NAM's 4th or 5th consecutive run showing this. MOS will be out soon to verify that. Looks like BUF changes over right around H36, and its all snow from there on out. Here's a QPF map from the point forward... definately 12+ of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How far " just north"?? I can think of at least 5 of us hoping that 40-50 miles north of ALB is enough. LOL. Looking like the foothills of the 'daks north is still in this thing. Cool. I am getting ready for bed and I just asked the wife if she wants to flip the coin to decide if I put the plow on or wait. I am waiting it out. Verbatim on the 0z NAM, this is mostly all rain for the ALY cwa, maybe some backend light snow at the end across the n/w half of the cwa. The places in N NY that get hammered on this run are pretty much reserved to the northern tier counties, especially St Lawrence and Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 sorry i just passed out there for a minute I am so glad you will be getting some decent precip. You have been robbed a few times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well it could be wrong.... On the other hand if it is correct...this will be it's one nailed forecast of the year. That's about how often the NAM scores the coup. o MOS will be out soon to verify that. Looks like BUF changes over right around H36, and its all snow from there on out. Here's a QPF map from the point forward... definately 12+ of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the NAM would necessitate severe changes to my forecast. basically it is doing a slightly earler phase (maybe by 3 hours) with an even more deeper trough, (it keeps trending towards a deeper trough every run since 00z last night). the result is that the energy used to spawn the wave train is kinda eliminated, and a lot more energy places into the second low, and so the bz becomes stationary as it is controlled by the second low in the south (rather than the wave train)......with a perfectly placed bz for ottawa and almost WNY too. thats pretty extreme and its the NAM, but the key event is the phase thats occurring at 18-24 hours (strength and location). the idea of washing out the wave train in favor of the second low (due to the quciker phase) is a signficiant change, as even the earlier NAMs had the wave train which allowed the bz to progress east. its a big change in the whole evolution of the event, so would proceed with caution until full 00z suite arrives.... would require huge forecast changes here, in southern ontario and WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I am so glad you will be getting some decent precip. You have been robbed a few times this year. i suppose, but id be willing to share, thats a bit extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well it could be wrong.... On the other hand if it is correct...this will be it's one nailed forecast of the year. That's about how often the NAM scores the coup. Yeah, the fact remains it still lies on the western edge of the guidance for this 2nd event, so it should be taken with a grain of salt, especially since the GFS / ECM lie on the eastern side of the guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ottawa receives about 235 centimetres (93 in) of snowfall annually. Its biggest snowfall was recorded on March 3–4, 1947, with 73 centimetres (2.4 ft) of snow....courtesy of Wikipedia Environment Canada shows 2 March 1947 Ottawa set a one-day record snowfall of 40.6 cm (16 inches) of snow buries the Nation's Capitol. The storm leaves 73 cm (28.7 inches) of snow covering the Ottawa region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I have a bunch. I can try to post some... hey rick, did you ever take pics of that wet snow bomb from last season? would love to see some pics if you have them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the 0z nam looks like a 384hr gfs fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 wow.... I work at 6am.... HOW am I supposed to sleep tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the RGEM doesnt support the NAM. its shifted towards the other guidance. the NAM will soon be all by itself i imagine. .....coup or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 wow.... I work at 6am.... HOW am I supposed to sleep tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 45+ inch snow bomb - Feb 2010 - my first try at posting pictures here... hopefully this works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 45" snow bomb - Feb 2010 - a few more shots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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