wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 KALB MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS STILL THERE BUT HAS CHANGED SINCE THEPREVIOUS THINKING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT REMAINS LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHAT TYPE AND HOW MUCH OF THAT TYPE WILL ACCUMULATE. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS...HAS CHANGED THE MOST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING A POTENT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST TRACKING UP JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS OPERATIONAL MODEL IS NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND IMPLIES A LOT OF IT FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE NEAR A SPLIT OF WHETHER OR NOT THE H850 0 ISOTHERM LINE ENDS UP TO OUR SOUTHEAST...OVERHEAD WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN KEEPING IT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT UNLIKE OLD RUNS...MANY ARE MEMBERS ARE NOW FORECASTING A POTENT WAVE INTO MONDAY RIDING UP OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COASTLINE. THE 12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION INDICATING MOSTLY IF NOT ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR REGION INTO MONDAY. THE SREFS MEAN CONFIRMS H850 TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 0C AND H925 TEMPS WELL ABOVE ZERO AS WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL BUT NOT AS COLD IN ITS PROFILE. IT WOULD INDICATE A LOT OF MIXING OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN EVENTUALLY GOING TO SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS EAST. THE 12Z CMC WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/18Z NAM WHILE 12Z UKMET WAS OFF BY ITS OWN...MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS (LIKE THE OLD RUNS OF THE GFS)...BRINGING AN END TO ALL PRECIPITATION BY 12Z MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...MORE WITH THE COLDER SOLUTION...MAINLY SNOW LIKELY (PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT). KEEP IN MIND...A LOT OF FACTORS COULD (AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE) BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sunday Night: Snow and freezing rain before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 21. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 snow and under 1/2 mile visibilty has arrived in the upper ottawa valley -4C in ottawa, NE winds, cloudy funny story in montreal this afternoon, when i left it was around -3C, when i got to ottawa the winds in MTL had shifted SSE and the temp went shooting up to +1C figured i made the right deicison, only to see an hour later the winds shifted NW and back down to -2C now! cant say i saw a wind shift from the expected SE back to NW these local wind effects in our region can play havoc, especially with such a close thermal gradient between frozen and liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Sunday Night: Snow and freezing rain before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 21. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. I wonder if this really could be a problem with icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I wonder if this really could be a problem with icing. If we get that much excessive precip, I would think the dynamic cooling would make S+ the favored p-type along with the gradual deepening of the cold column behind the front. Doesn't hurt that it's night time either especially this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS = ugly/warm 18z nam dumps 14.5" snow on buff.. more as you head ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 man, that all seems too incredible to be true. I can't recall a time when we got an inch of rain followed by a ton of snow. No snow in the west end where i am now...at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just about time for the 0z NAM to kick things off <rolls the dice... c'mon ssseven>. I like to think we are to the point where it's a given that someone(s) in our alaska-size region is going to get a cement truck load or 2 or 3 in the BY. The 18z GFS was a bit disconcerting, hopefully these upcoming 0z runs can find some common stomping grounds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 nws buf is only calling for 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the upper ottawa valley is really getting nice snow right now 3 straight hours with temps at -4C and visibilites under 1/2 to 1/4 mile with yellows over pembroke on radar. must be about 1.5 inches/ 3-4cm down there and counting with a train of moisture heading towards them. the more snow they get and the less they warm up ovenight, the colder it will be here tomorrow and the quicker we change back to snow. its still early but if pettawawa is getting heavier snow than north bay, then thats a good sign for us because it means the boundary and heavier snow is furtrher south. and my concerns that Env Canada has underplayed the winter storm up there, will be possible.......but its early going for now so lets see how it plays out. the snow this evening in ottawa may not materialize due to the very dry air. but thats nothing anyways, just a mere drop....the real precip arrives later overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the upper ottawa valley is really getting nice snow right now 3 straight hours with temps at -4C and visibilites under 1/2 to 1/4 mile with yellows over pembroke on radar. must be about 1.5 inches/ 3-4cm down there and counting with a train of moisture heading towards them. the more snow they get and the less they warm up ovenight, the colder it will be here tomorrow and the quicker we change back to snow. its still early but if pettawawa is getting heavier snow than north bay, then thats a good sign for us because it means the boundary and heavier snow is furtrher south. and my concerns that Env Canada has underplayed the winter storm up there, will be possible.......but its early going for now so lets see how it plays out. the snow this evening in ottawa may not materialize due to the very dry air. but thats nothing anyways, just a mere drop....the real precip arrives later overnight. Thanks OL...we can always count on you with some encouraging news....hate to tell you though most people in Ottawa want cold and snow to be gone....I like your theories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 man, that all seems too incredible to be true. I can't recall a time when we got an inch of rain followed by a ton of snow. No snow in the west end where i am now...at least not yet. Very light flakes where I am in Kanata....nothing to worry about yet..but as per OL's post it is coming down up d' valley d'ere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 man, that all seems too incredible to be true. I can't recall a time when we got an inch of rain followed by a ton of snow. No snow in the west end where i am now...at least not yet. yeah its an unusual storm, but i cant recall this amount of copious moisutre training towards us either. there will be accum tomorrow night and sunday morning and some of the SREFS were calling for in excess of 8 inches in ottawa. the GFS is quicker to punch the cold air southwards. the boundary is going to be fascinating to watch. as i mentioned when the winds shifted NW in montreal this evening, the temp dropped qucikly....goes to show there is cold air banked just north of us. recall last year when we had winds shift to the N, the temp didnt budge we had no cold air nearby. big difference in this setup. it may not work out, but lets hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Light snow and -5 here in Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Thanks OL...we can always count on you with some encouraging news....hate to tell you though most people in Ottawa want cold and snow to be gone....I like your theories. Very light flakes where I am in Kanata....nothing to worry about yet..but as per OL's post it is coming down up d' valley d'ere. Proof, this will be the one time this season that you'll be closer and first to feel the cold air than the rest of your Ottawa brethren and anyone on this forum....northwest to Southeast and all the way across Upstate will be the motto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just about time for the 0z NAM to kick things off <rolls the dice... c'mon ssseven>. I like to think we are to the point where it's a given that someone(s) in our alaska-size region is going to get a cement truck load or 2 or 3 in the BY. The 18z GFS was a bit disconcerting, hopefully these upcoming 0z runs can find some common stomping grounds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not a flake in sight in the north end of the city. If only those clown maps come true. I don't want the cold and snow to be gone! A storm that comes to mind is one that happened in 1999...TWN did a story on that...30 mm of rain and 60 cms of snow. In 1999, March roared in like a lion in the city of Ottawa. Between March 1st and 4th, 60.6 centimetres of snow fell on the Capital. The storm was a messy mix of snow and over 30 millimetres of rain that caused flooding, traffic headaches and cancelled flights. Coincidentally, the storm occurred on the anniversary of the city's worst snowstorm in history. In 1974, over the same four days, 80 centimetres fell on the city. Maybe something similar this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I just looked at the 18Z RGEM and it is really the warm outlier with it's thermal profiles. The P type maps show just minimal snow at the nw edge of the precip. I do think it is trending east regarding event #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not a flake in sight in the north end of the city. If only those clown maps come true. I don't want the cold and snow to be gone! A storm that comes to mind is one that happened in 1999...TWN did a story on that...30 mm of rain and 60 cms of snow. Maybe something similar this time? i was trying to figure out why i didnt remember that one......then i finally remembered i was in florida. holy crap! i just looked at the reanalyis of that event. back to back ridiculous storm retrograding off the Altantic. those are maps i woulda thought never possible. march s always the month you should never go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z NAM already looks like a water-loaded bomb at H24 down on the Bayou... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I leave for FL on the 28th. I'll be really annoyed if epic - NAO leads to some huge snowstorm on March 30th... Yes in late March - NAO tends to be your friend. i was trying to figure out why i didnt remember that one......then i finally remembered i was in florida. holy crap! i just looked at the reanalyis of that event. back to back ridiculous storm retrograding off the Altantic. those are maps i woulda thought never possible. march s always the month you should never go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 early returns on NAM says it aint backing down....h5 looks even more impressive through 24hours, but it might lose it later in the run, lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well the new NAM has Ottawa near the 0C 850 line for a bit, but pulls it back down to the border by 0Z Sunday. I leave for FL on the 28th. I'll be really annoyed if epic - NAO leads to some huge snowstorm on March 30th... Yes in late March - NAO tends to be your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Out to H36... Changing to snow in W NY. Ottawa getting raked hard with heavy snow (.50qpf+)... SLP over the Apps in Sw VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I leave for FL on the 28th. I'll be really annoyed if epic - NAO leads to some huge snowstorm on March 30th... Yes in late March - NAO tends to be your friend. hey rick, did you ever take pics of that wet snow bomb from last season? would love to see some pics if you have them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 H42... Far W NY / Niagara Frontier northeast across LO to ART / MSS / Ogdensburg and points n/w along int'l border... all heavy snow. SLP along upper WV-VA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 H45... same places above getting raked hard. No real eastward movement to the Ra / Sn line. SLP over the MD / WV panhandles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 My sister has a few ..I'll have to try to get them.... NAM is still in it's own world on steroids. Could it be the rare coup? hey rick, did you ever take pics of that wet snow bomb from last season? would love to see some pics if you have them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 H51... all of W NY / far northern NY / Intl Border friends still getting poundeddd... Ra / Sn line running from Hornell-Fairport-Newark northeast across Ern LO and cutting thru Jeff-St Law-Franklin Cntys Sub 1000mb SLP between Williamsport and Scranton PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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