lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Figured I'd start a topic now for early discussion about this storm since its been on the GFS for quite a few runs now. The 06z rakes KBUF and WNY with almost 2 inches of QPF AFTER 850mb/surface temps drop below zero. Hopefully this can be the "big daddy" storm of the year and we can end winter 2011 with a "BANG!" Good luck to all, and lets hope we can all cash in on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 All I have to say is WOW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 The Euro is actually very similar with this storm as well, just one day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 0z CMC is just out of control with the QPF... looks like >4.00" in spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Winds are also from NE which could enhance precip across northern erie and niagara falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I've been watching this very closely. This does have potential in either direction. Verbatim, it's a rain to snow, then heavy snow at that with surface temps below freezing for 80% of the event. I don't think this comes to fruition however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wow... already in the HWO at D6... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1011 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT/S TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 the euro is actually even more widespread with heavy qpf lol this has a strong signal for a massive qpf event somewhere for several days now. watching intently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wow... already in the HWO at D6... Well today's storm was supposed to be something major, and all it has been has been some rain this morning and a day around 40°. We may not even hit a 1/2" of rain. That said, a heavy rain or heavy snow will have big implications so I guess it's not a bad idea to make people aware of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I see the 0Z Euro ensembles get the low to the Jersey Shore ultimately. It looks like rain to snow in ENY ....looking at the average of various models. The GGEM keeping the low well inland all the way to Quebec and seems a western outlier at this point. Though certainly within the realm.... the euro is actually even more widespread with heavy qpf lol this has a strong signal for a massive qpf event somewhere for several days now. watching intently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Well today's storm was supposed to be something major, and all it has been has been some rain this morning and a day around 40°. We may not even hit a 1/2" of rain. That said, a heavy rain or heavy snow will have big implications so I guess it's not a bad idea to make people aware of it. Yes, but this new potential storm is more of a Miller A type...roots are from the GOM...unlike the current one. In addition, the models tend to do better with GOM lows as opposed to Midwest runners...just my observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wow... already in the HWO at D6... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1011 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT/S TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. Wake me when it gets closer if you dont mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 GFS much quicker and further NW with the system. pretty big changes from its previous several runs which placed a slow moving baroclinc zone across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yep... total flip by the GFS..... We'll see what the Euro says.... GFS much quicker and further NW with the system. pretty big changes from its previous several runs which placed a slow moving baroclinc zone across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yep... total flip by the GFS..... We'll see what the Euro says.... Dear Rick, Please keep your Eastern NY bias out of this thread, thanks. IMO, the signifcant spread on the Euro along with several complete misses, is what allowed for such an easterly mean placement of the surface low. At this point, it's becoming even more evident that there should be more concern about the surface low heading through Michigan than Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Dear Rick, Please keep your Eastern NY bias out of this thread, thanks. IMO, the signifcant spread on the Euro along with several complete misses, is what allowed for such an easterly mean placement of the surface low. At this point, it's becoming even more evident that there should be more concern about the surface low heading through Michigan than Cape May. I think thats jumping the gun, its too early to speculate either way of Cape May or Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Dear Rick, Please keep your Eastern NY bias out of this thread, thanks. IMO, the signifcant spread on the Euro along with several complete misses, is what allowed for such an easterly mean placement of the surface low. At this point, it's becoming even more evident that there should be more concern about the surface low heading through Michigan than Cape May. What? He cant have an opinion? You must be from downstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 What? He cant have an opinion? You must be from downstate. I like Rick. However, I'm simply pointing out the eastern bias. It's blatant. To add to this, the 12z GFS ensembles don't have a single member with a surface low east of CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Vs the other obvious biases here? the "Upstate NY" area is a big one - lots of folks get excited about a storm in "upstate ny" though the "rest" of us may not see snow. Likewise sometimes we get excited, and others may not be on the models to see snow. Thankfully by now most of us know where we are coming from geographically (if not mentally ) and can figure out whether the post is relevant for our own area within the subforum. Back on topic, I'll be curious to see what DOES happen with this storm. When models agree a storm is likely to form this far out I enjoy watching to see if they are right or not, regardless of who gets the precipitation. It is amazing how far the science has come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 If this 12Z run of the Euro were to pan out verbatim, Ottawa would get 1.12" qpf in rain/wet snow and 1.57" qpf in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Canadian is just as just as rediculous as it's 0z run. Probably not right, but it's quite a spectacle. Precip enters Upstate NY by H108, and just doesn't go away all the way thru H180. The feed off the GOM and Atlantic is just insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Dear Rick, Please keep your Eastern NY bias out of this thread, thanks. IMO, the signifcant spread on the Euro along with several complete misses, is what allowed for such an easterly mean placement of the surface low. At this point, it's becoming even more evident that there should be more concern about the surface low heading through Michigan than Cape May. given that every system has trended S and E this year, i see no reason to rule out any possiblities based on model runs 5+ days out. for all we know, there may not even be a storm at this range if the energy craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 If this 12Z run of the Euro were to pan out verbatim, Ottawa would get 1.12" qpf in rain/wet snow and 1.57" qpf in snow. you get the MOS data? nice, will have to remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 there are major differences between the euro/GFS/GEM on todays 12z run. all 3 op runs show various solutions that have been shown on previous runs of other models and viceversa. potential remains high for a massive qpf event across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 you get the MOS data? nice, will have to remember that I have no idea what MOS means lol...pardon my ignorance, but I am just getting into all this storm tracking, and learning via these forums as I go along! I have the Accuweather pro account, and they update the Euro text data (maybe that is MOS?) in pretty much real time, so I get it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I have no idea what MOS means lol...pardon my ignorance, but I am just getting into all this storm tracking, and learning via these forums as I go along! I have the Accuweather pro account, and they update the Euro text data (maybe that is MOS?) in pretty much real time, so I get it from there. hah yeah thats what i meant are you sure you want to get into storm tracking? its an illness you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z UK looks most like the 12z ECM at the surface thru 144. Broad / weak LP from the MS Valley to Upstate NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wow. Where did that come from? I've never heard anyone that posts here have a complaint about Rick's posts before. Dear Rick, Please keep your Eastern NY bias out of this thread, thanks. IMO, the signifcant spread on the Euro along with several complete misses, is what allowed for such an easterly mean placement of the surface low. At this point, it's becoming even more evident that there should be more concern about the surface low heading through Michigan than Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 HPC... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 128 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011 VALID 12Z THU MAR 03 2011 - 12Z MON MAR 07 2011 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS VERIFIED STRONGLY...ON THE AVERAGE...WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PAST COLD SEASON AS COMPARED WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AFFORDING A YARD STICK OF SORTS FOR SORTING THROUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IS MARKED BY JUST SUCH DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EARLY AND PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE SOUTH...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER INDICATING A MORE INTEGRATED... PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD SPLITTING FARTHER EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN REFLECTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST...SPLIT SOLUTIONS... AND THE FASTEST...INTEGRATED ONES. THE FLOW OVER THE WEST IS MORE STABLE...WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR BANKED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A BROAD MEAN TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. FINAL... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/28 GFS AND GEFS MEAN CONTINUE TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GEM GLOBAL IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN...A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. TARGETED RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD TO HELP SORT OUT THE CRITICAL REGION BELIEVED TO HAVE BEARING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT. CISCO 00z ECM Ens Mean... The 12z run will be out shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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