IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Why is that a positive weather experience for us? Flooding rains do nothing but cause tons of damage, way worse than what snow causes. It is uninteresting because it is not interesting to see people's homes incur severe flood damage. :lol: The point was..........its 7+ DAYS out............the part about the 3"+ rain is my personal preference to boring weather. I like to see severe weather no matter what form it takes. I feel bad for the damage it causes but its not like we have any control over it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 FWIW, GFS also has storm. It's being shown a little differently but it's there regardless. There is definitely some potential for this time period. Something that should be monitored at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 what I like is that the gfs is soooo out to sea and the euro is much closer to the coast. It makes me believe the gfs is doing its usual supressive thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Possible cut off low scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Alpha, it is cutoff season in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 :lol: The point was..........its 7+ DAYS out............the part about the 3"+ rain is my personal preference to boring weather. I like to see severe weather no matter what form it takes. I feel bad for the damage it causes but its not like we have any control over it either way. I understand your point about the time frame. I don't like boring weather either but 3 inches or more of rain does not excite me unless it is accompanied by December 1992/March 2010 winds because that is historic and while that causes damage too it is a very rare occurrence. No one is going to call a 3 inch rain storm historic or severe as it happens more often and is just a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I understand your point about the time frame. I don't like boring weather either but 3 inches or more of rain does not excite me unless it is accompanied by December 1992/March 2010 winds because that is historic and while that causes damage too it is a very rare occurrence. No one is going to call a 3 inch rain storm historic as it happens more often and is just a nuisance. March 12 2010 Nor'easter was like 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Jan 26 looked like an inland rainstorm also. The solution is going to vary greatly in the modeling over the next few days because of some features present. The huge cutoff JAN 26 setup relied heavily on a strong HP and area of confluence to our north that prevented the storm from cutting and warming us. Models if nothing else, at least show a strong area of confluence that makes this setup tricky. If the northern stream is quick to progress east out ahead of the southern stream shortwave, marginal cold air in association with a strong area of HP could setup. The interaction between the two streams is important as well as the development of a strong area of confluence. It has saved us a few times this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Guys, time to face facts. The next couple weeks or so don't show much, and by that point getting snow along the I-95 corridor NYC south is quite rare. the new brunswick area (south of nyc along I-95) has had accumulating snow after march 15th in 18 of the last 32 years. that's not rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 18Z gfs looks a lot like the euro except doesnt get the front through before the low pressure comes up almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 the new brunswick area (south of nyc along I-95) has had accumulating snow after march 15th in 18 of the last 32 years. that's not rare. Ok, accumulating snow is not rare. But how many of them were at least three inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 the new brunswick area (south of nyc along I-95) has had accumulating snow after march 15th in 18 of the last 32 years. that's not rare. Nothing major though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 c000 (control) FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Ok, accumulating snow is not rare. But how many of them were at least three inches? 3" or more, march 15th onward since 1978, new brunswick area: 3/16/78....3.0" 4/6/82......6.0" 3/28/84....3.3" 3/22/92....4.5" 3/18/94....3.8" 4/9/96......4.0" 3/31/97....6.4" 3/15/99....5.7" 4/7/03......6.6" 3/16/04....5.7" 3/19/04....4.6" 3/16/07....3.0" (sleet) we're due. Nothing major though. well 3" after mid march is a cheap thrill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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