snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 As has been the case with the past couple of systems a bit of it will have to do with whatever happens to the front runner. Pretty amazing how we keep getting these near identical set ups with a front runner just ahead of the main system. Thus i would not rule anything out at this point. Good point. Also, the southern wave as it emerges from the SW is not all that impressive. A broad, low amplitude "kink" in the flow, that deepens as it's east of the MS river. That could help keep the associated sfc low on a more southerly track initially. But like I said, at this time of the year, I feel like I'm fighting climo as the biggest factor, even though the other met. reasoning might argue otherwise. More an imby problem. March snowstorm climo out your way I imagine is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Good point. Also, the southern wave as it emerges from the SW is not all that impressive. A broad, low amplitude "kink" in the flow, that deepens as it's east of the MS river. That could help keep the associated sfc low on a more southerly track initially. But like I said, at this time of the year, I feel like I'm fighting climo as the biggest factor, even though the other met. reasoning might argue otherwise. More an imby problem. March snowstorm climo out your way I imagine is much better. climo doesn't necessarily favor lows passing west of us over here. sure they can pass west of us, but also east of us.....just as in any other winter month. that problem doesnt really set in till the last 10 days of march. warmer air, thats a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 geez you guys are all gonna flood if the ggem is even close to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Dumb foreign models. Yeah, that's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How does a 1006 low in N/C Texas sound at hr 96 on the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 geez you guys are all gonna flood if the ggem is even close to verifying It's like the 12z, but shifted 150 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How does a 1006 low in N/C Texas sound at hr 96 on the GEM? I like the 120 panel myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Haha, it is your turn Harry! How much snow have you gotten this winter? Although you had that awesome snow band come over you last week, didn't you? I am *perhaps* the only slacker in this area/region that has yet to reach climo for the season and thus have 54.5" on the season. Yeah that band clipped me good and dumped about 2 here. I did not get any Thunder though. I was happy with it though as it did atleast remain all snow down here unlike areas just to the north strangely enough and it was not expected. Some of the heaviest snow i have seen in alot of years with that quick hitter. Can't complain especially considering it is the only event so far this winter that has over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It's like the 12z, but shifted 150 miles NW. ya not sure with the black and white but looks like widespread 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 geez you guys are all gonna flood if the ggem is even close to verifying GGEM painting an ominous scenario. 0z has over 2.30" of rain here, guessing off the b/w maps, through 120 hours with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 You guys are having major flooding problems already aren't you Chicago Wx? I hate these b/w maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 You guys are having major flooding problems already aren't you Chicago Wx? I hate these b/w maps. Wabash River here is in flood stage and rising, though we "missed out" on any local urban flooding. That of course isn't the case for those south and east of here who are in deep doo-doo currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I'm pinning all my hopes on the Thursday night/Friday morning lead event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 bombs the storm out also to 995 about 100 miles east of detroit wonder what the 3 day total would be for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 I'm pinning all my hopes on the Thursday night/Friday morning lead event. Nice...good luck. I'm pinning my hopes that LAF gets dry pocketed/slotted somehow and misses out on the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Nice...good luck. I'm pinning my hopes that LAF gets dry pocketed/slotted somehow and misses out on the deluge. 2-3" to get me over 50" would be nice. Then you can send the deluge here. I live on a hill. Maybe it takes a day or two to get the Tim SE mojo to kick in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Feels like a big rain event with some scrap 1/4" snows somewhere on the north side like we got with the last storm.. Only thing going for the GFS is a LAF member started the thread and a storm is due to bring heavy rains up this way. This skirting SE BS will only last so long before one cuts over me or near. Seems we have 3 events to track... after that who knows what the future will bring. Shame the active nina pattern had to come so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 bombs the storm out also to 995 about 100 miles east of detroit wonder what the 3 day total would be for some areas Darn lead storms bringing up warmer air for the main show. I still think the front runner could be weak and the main show will have a little cold air to work with. Mainly NW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Get your boats ready folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GEFS mean is colder/SE but that means dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Get your boats ready folks When Stebo gives up, you know your goose is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GEFS mean is colder/SE but that means dick. Depends how far/cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Get your boats ready folks rough estimate probably 4-4.5 inches in detroit you can head 10 miles north near my house and float around in the clinton river which will probably be as wide as the mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 When Stebo gives up, you know your goose is cooked. I'm not giving up, If anything I think someone is going to cash in on a lot of snow on the back side of this. Plus I need something to give you 6.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 2-3" to get me over 50" would be nice. Then you can send the deluge here. I live on a hill. Maybe it takes a day or two to get the Tim SE mojo to kick in? At this point I'd rather pass any stupid amounts of rainfall, going to hurt my profession a little down the road. But in reality there's not a damn thing I can do about it. Color maps updated, and it's easily 3"+ of rainfall here. Of course the GGEM is kind enough to throw 2-4" or so of snow down here in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Depends how far/cold Looks like Mo bootheel to Erie, PA. We both stay on the good side of the little blue line, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 rough estimate probably 4-4.5 inches in detroit you can head 10 miles north near my house and float around in the clinton river which will probably be as wide as the mississippi May of 2004 redo? My grandmother has pictures of whole trees floating down the St. Clair River from that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 At this point I'd rather pass any stupid amounts of rainfall, going to hurt my profession a little down the road. But in reality there's not a damn thing I can do about it. Color maps updated, and it's easily 3"+ of rainfall here. Of course the GGEM is kind enough to throw 2-4" or so of snow down here in the end. ok, I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Looks like Mo bootheel to Erie, PA. We both stay on the good side of the little blue line, but not by much. As long as we are on that side of it, I'm fine. This could be very very big for someone, or very very wet. Either way its not going to be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GGEM precip type (03/01/11 00z) http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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