dmc76 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 This is borderline a big snow event for SEMI on the EURO run. At this point looks like a Rain/Snow mix or Wet Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 996 low developing in COL already. Probably will die out, but who knows. Active pattern again. Everybody around here might be singing row row row your boat before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Pretty much anyone east of a ARK-S. IL-C. IN-E. MI receive nearly 2 inches of QPF from this system. It's rain in most areas, but it defintley has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Pretty much anyone east of a ARK-S. IL-C. IN-E. MI receive over 2 inch of QPF from this system. It's rain in most areas, but it defintley has potential. Also the Euro has a medium range warm bias, so considering that and factoring in climo, I'd say a narrow band of heavy snow is very much on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Where exactly is YZZ btw? What part of Canada? Through HR 144, parts of IN/OH receive over 2 inches of rain. TN/N. AL receive over 3-3.5 inches of rain. YYZ is the ICAO code for Pearson Int'l airport in Toronto, Ontario. Only have access to the freebies, but even though the EURO is marginal, it does looks colder than the 0z, at least through 144 with the first wave. Not sure if it'll spin up that secondary Apps runner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 2nd storm = coastal this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 are we including the WAA snows on thursday night in this thread? its all part of the same larger scale qpf event, so i think so IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Uncle UKIE has an elongated 1012 stretching from the MS river delta to C IN at 120. At 144 has a 1008 elongated stretching from DC to east of Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 major differences today at 12z between the GFS/Euro and the GGEM regarding how all this will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Here comes another system coming out of TX at hr 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Definitely hope at least one of these threats over the next 10 days pans out. Climo is working hard against me after that. In contrast, Moneyman/Bowme will be frolicking in the snow until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Definitely hope at least one of these threats over the next 10 days pans out. Climo is working hard against me after that. In contrast, Moneyman/Bowme will be frolicking in the snow until May. I hope not. Come March 28th, it better be spring. Temps in the 50's, sunny etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Here comes another system coming out of TX at hr 210. Looks like another slow mover on this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Amazing looking at the QPF maps. Even if most of it in the country is rain. Pretty much anyone east of a STL-Chicago due east of that, receive 2 inches of QPF with S. IN and Ohio getting over 3 inches of QPF. 1004 low just east of here at hr 240, another storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The jolly good JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The jolly good JMA If this pattern keeps up, we are going to have major hydro problems - MAJOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 If this pattern keeps up, we are going to have major hydro problems - MAJOR agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a surface low in northern Georgia at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a surface low in northern Georgia at 144 hours. Who knows whats going to transpire, but these systems look monsterous as they crash into the PAC NW. Unfortunately it looks like energy splits up and doesn't stay phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a surface low in northern Georgia at 144 hours. Wow thats way south of the OP Euro, and way way south of the GFS(somewhere in Canada). Gives some credence to the CMC being down in that area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a surface low in northern Georgia at 144 hours. Seems sort of like the GGEM with that latitudinal movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Interesting GRR mentions the FIM model today. First time I've seen that model mentioned in an AFD. THE FCST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS VERY TRICKY WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THAT SYSTEM WOULD IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER 12Z FIM AND GFS GUIDANCE STILL TAKES THE LOW ON A MUCH FURTHER WEST TRACK AND SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA WOULD RECEIVE A MIX OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 HPC going with the ECMWF ens/GGEM type solution, with a split flow and a slow moving cutoff low in the southern stream. These types of non-phased scenarios are always tricky for heavy snow. Usually it's a thin strip right on the NW fringe of the pcpn shield. That's if it develops at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Interesting GRR mentions the FIM model today. First time I've seen that model mentioned in an AFD. THE FCST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS VERY TRICKY WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THAT SYSTEM WOULD IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER 12Z FIM AND GFS GUIDANCE STILL TAKES THE LOW ON A MUCH FURTHER WEST TRACK AND SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA WOULD RECEIVE A MIX OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX. I know I've seen the DMX office mention FIM on rare occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 It would be nice for once for this to give areas between I 70 and I 64 a 5+ inch snowfall which we have failed to get this winter. I think we have our shot the first 15 days of March. After that we wait till November-December 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Keep em coming. I smell Thundersleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> <br /> agreed<br /> Labor Day 2003 problems? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 18z NOGAPS has like a 990 mb low in eastern lower Michigan at 132 hours, which deepens to 984 mb after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 18z NOGAPS has like a 990 mb low in eastern lower Michigan at 132 hours, which deepens to 984 mb after that. Hehe, nothing like 18 z runs of minor models for doses of realism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 18z GFS came west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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