Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ah yes, there's the famous Detroit dryslot of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Congrats Cyclone77! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 big shift north this run and stronger with the sfc low on the IN/OH border with the 18z run and now its west of DTX on the new run for the same time. The 850mb low is also much stronger this run. 0z NAM is progs 850mb winds at 70kts at 60hr in southern IL, quite the LLJ feeding this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ah yes, there's the famous Detroit dryslot of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I know the NAM's shyte, but I'd rather have it on my side than the SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I know the NAM's shyte, but I'd rather have it on my side than the SREFS. but i'll take the GFS over the NAM lets just hope it holds for our sakes, but i'm not exactyl confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 maybe the stronger this low is tthe more likley the next one comes further south? tryin to look at the glass um half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 maybe the stronger this low is tthe more likley the next one comes further south? tryin to look at the glass um half full. Unlike 18z DGEX, I don't think this run's going to spawn a second low. Unless you're talking about the D7 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Unlike 18z DGEX, I don't think this run's going to spawn a second low. Unless you're talking about the D7 storm? Yea I am out in fantasy not going to happen D7 land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 FWIW, very few of the 18z GFS ensembles look like the 00z NAM. Let's see what the 00z offers up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 At least the NAM has the EURO on it's side though. 12z euro had kinda the same track just faster/a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 At least the NAM has the EURO on it's side though. 12z euro had kinda the same track just faster/a tad weaker. EE rule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 EE rule... Actually, the old ETA has the low through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 EE rule... Yeah, this winter rules are meant to be broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 At least the NAM has the EURO on it's side though. 12z euro had kinda the same track just faster/a tad weaker. NAM is the most amped at this point with way more precip on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM is the most amped at this point with way more precip on the cold side. Not the first time. Rooting for a strong low that can bring down cold air for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 . the NAM actually looks like last night GGEM the most. it develops a single main low rather than a eastward progressing bz wave train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 True, but the EURO shifted towards a more amped solution on the 12z run. It was a weak 1012 low on the 0z from last night and 12z was 1006 or so, and gave parts of WI like .25 QPF of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Actually, the old ETA has the low through Ohio. My god. Lets just get this clusterf*ck of a storm out of here as quick as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 As I thought, NMM members are the furthest NW with the low in the SREF suite, but none look at far NW as the OP NAM. Furthest NW is roughly through Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Precip through hour 70 on the IWX WRF. It was fairly accurate with the last few storms precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 True, but the EURO shifted towards a more amped solution on the 12z run. It was a weak 1012 low on the 0z from last night and 12z was 1006 or so, and gave parts of WI like .25 QPF of snow. It almost had to be after that abortion of a run last night. I'm not choosing a side but imo, they're not as similar as you're making them out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It almost had to be after that abortion of a run last night. I'm not choosing a side but imo, they're not as similar as you're making them out to be. $bags doesn't know how to "read" models well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 RGEM extrapolated would be like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Precip through hour 70 on the IWX WRF. It was fairly accurate with the last few storms precip wise. Yuck. We still have over an inch of water in our frozen snowpack. Hydro issues galore if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 RGEM extrapolated would be like the NAM. Yeah, looks quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah, looks quite similar. Looks like this is the curveball. Swing and a miss for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Even with the NAO going back down to neutral, doesn't seem like there will be anything significant up in canada to suppress this thing like the last one. Is there possibly a PV thats phasing with this low which could bring it further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Skillings RPM model has ORD up to 61F and the southern suburbs in the mid-upper 60's on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Even with the NAO going back down to neutral, doesn't seem like there will be anything significant up in canada to suppress this thing like the last one. Is there possibly a PV thats phasing with this low which could bring it further NW? Given the trough placement and where the phase is taking place on the NAM/RGEM, you'd need a strong -NAO to get this thing not to cut. Transitioning to neutral NAO ain't gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.