kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can certainly say this will not be happening down here at LBF once I get forecasting (an admittedly long time with the training process). Full effort will be put forth in all forecasts and AFD's/forecast products. Didn't read GRR AFD/forecast so I can't comment that--but on this end there will always be full effort. Be sure to let us know when you write an AFD so we can see your handy work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DTX LOT DVN LAF seem to have reasonable AFDs as of late. GRR just seems to zip through them. I still think GRR is a good office based on years of tracking their every move..Maybe its time for them to not have the "rookies" write the AFDs. I was thinking about this too..We think AFDs are uninformative now...just wait until the budget cuts. lol. I can get real political here about this but its not worth it..Budget cuts for NWS is a crisis in the making and could actually put peoples lives ,property and interstate commerce at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Be sure to let us know when you write an AFD so we can see your handy work! It will be a long time with the rather lengthy and involved training process--but I will definitely let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z UKIE looks like it would be further north than 12z and more like the NAM. what site do you use for the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 what site do you use for the ukmet? For the off hour runs. Not pretty, but it gets the job done. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can certainly say this will not be happening down here at LBF once I get forecasting (an admittedly long time with the training process). Full effort will be put forth in all forecasts and AFD's/forecast products. Didn't read GRR AFD/forecast so I can't comment that--but on this end there will always be full effort. I am looking forward to them and not even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Are my ears fooling me? Did I just hear a local met say the words "sloppy seconds".Someone needs to Google Sean Avery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Are my ears fooling me? Did I just hear a local met say the words "sloppy seconds".Someone needs to Google Sean Avery Reminds me of an on-air met in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The 0z LSX WRF from last night, dont know why the 12z run isn't showing up on the site. ORD forecast sounding for the time of the precip image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Are my ears fooling me? Did I just hear a local met say the words "sloppy seconds".Someone needs to Google Sean Avery you mean this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The 0z LSX WRF from last night, dont know why the 12z run isn't showing up on the site. ORD forecast sounding for the time of the precip image. Newbie when it comes to reading those soundings. It showing a cold rain for ord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Pretty big shift with the SREFS. At 15z the mean was reminiscent of the NAM with a phased system riding into the lower lakes on Saturday. Now at 21z, it looks a lot more like the 12/18z GFS, with a lead northern stream wave on Friday, a fropa, and then a much more southerly path of the southern stream storm, through the Lower Ohio Valley. Might mean nothing because the SREFS suck massive ass the last 4 weeks, or maybe its a precursor of things to come with tonight's model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Pretty big shift with the SREFS. At 15z the mean was reminiscent of the NAM with a phased system riding into the lower lakes on Saturday. Now at 21z, it looks a lot more like the 12/18z GFS, with a lead northern stream wave on Friday, a fropa, and then a much more southerly path of the southern stream storm, through the Lower Ohio Valley. Might mean nothing because the SREFS suck massive ass the last 4 weeks, or maybe its a precursor of things to come with tonight's model suite. 18z gfs gave us 6"+ on the backend precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18z gfs gave us 6"+ on the backend precip Gave me 9"+. 21z SREFs would be good for us but they've been so terrible lately it's hard to give them much weight. But still, that was a huge shift, which is rare for ensembles. Let's see what the NAM says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Gave me 9"+. 21z SREFs would be good for us but they've been so terrible lately it's hard to give them much weight. But still, that was a huge shift, which is rare for ensembles. Let's see what the NAM says... Are ****ty looking storm your bread and butter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM might even be farther NW then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Are ****ty looking storm your bread and butter? Yup, I need strung out turds. Anything beautiful tracks to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah, HR 54 is def. farther NW then 18z hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM might even be farther NW then 18z. Yeah. Trough's already amplifying by 42 getting ready for the phase. SREFS had some spread on their north side, I'm guessing those were the NNM members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Amazing the spread considering we are only 2-3 days away so far. Gonna be a tough forecast, although, what storm hasn't been a nail biter so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yup, I need strung out turds. Anything beautiful tracks to my NW. Not everything. Don't forget the MECS and HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 1004 low near Chicago. At hr 63. Gonna be a nice hit here. To bad it's the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not everything. Don't forget the MECS and HECS. Thanks for reminding me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 sfc low bombs between 54-60hr.. stronger and further north than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 1004 low near Chicago. At hr 63. Gonna be a nice hit here. To bad it's the NAM though. You were warm initially, but NAM develops a beautiful comma head. DVN gets smoked. Meanwhile I'll be worrying about svr wx verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 0z NAM looks alot like the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ummm, the NAM is just sitting over MI. Tons of snow for WI it looks like. From HR 60-75, .1-.25 QPF+ in each of the 3 hr period, with some areas getting .25-.5 in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Guess I'll have to root for a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Guess I'll have to root for a turd Welcome to the dark side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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