Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Eww, 12z GFS would be our worst case scenario. It's ok the SE trend is still alive. I think... We need a strong storm to come along, wind up, which not only increases our snow chances with that particular storm but lays down some cold air for the next one. Until that happens look for weak lows with mostly rain here in the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Eww, 12z GFS would be our worst case scenario. meh.. Really not surprising as both the 00z GFS and euro was farther se vs their ensembles. Ofcourse this is not yet set in stone either. Just that typically when the ensembles are farther to the nw vs the OP we see shift that way on the following run. Personally i am happy because lately everything has been shifting south once we get inside of day 3-4 and so i could use a little breathing room. The 00z GFS/EURO sucked balls IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 meh.. Really not surprising as both the 00z GFS and euro was farther se vs their ensembles. Ofcourse this is not yet set in stone either. Just that typically when the ensembles are farther to the nw vs the OP we see shift that way on the following run. Personally i am happy because lately everything has been shifting south once we get inside of day 3-4 and so i could use a little breathing room. The 00z GFS/EURO sucked balls IMO. Speak for yourself. Eh, we're getting into "thread the needle" time for central Indiana...the hole is still big enough, but it's getting smaller every day. As for the pattern in the first week to ten days of March, NAO descending, PNA rising to neutral...I believe the getting will be good for some in the Midwest/GL (maybe more for the eastern 1/2, 2/3's) with the active pattern. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I will admit, it would be a hoot if this were the one storm (like the Groundhog Day Blizzard) that breaks the trend and goes NW after all these SE trenders. It's been the epic storms/bombs this season that have found a way to screw us. But even then, with another storm on its heels and nearly 60" for the season, I can't complain if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Speak for yourself. Eh, we're getting into "thread the needle" time for central Indiana...the hole is still big enough, but it's getting smaller every day. As for the pattern in the first week to ten days of March, NAO descending, PNA rising to neutral...I believe the getting will be good for some in the Midwest/GL (maybe more for the eastern 1/2, 2/3's) with the active pattern. We'll see... I have a strong hunch we are gonna be talking winter weather much later into spring then what many are thinking. JUST a hunch i have. We'll see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 I have a strong hunch we are gonna be talking winter weather much later into spring then what many are thinking. JUST a hunch i have. We'll see anyways. I have the same feeling myself. Not that it won't get warm at times, but I think the potential is there for wintry weather deeper into spring...especially in light after the past couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I have the same feeling myself. Not that it won't get warm at times, but I think the potential is there for wintry weather deeper into spring...especially in light after the past couple. I agree. The last couple have a little to do with my thinking as well but there is some other things as well related to Solar/enso etc. Maybe i'll do something up ( more detailed ) in the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Only positive imby I take from the 12z GFS is that it trended a bit colder with the lead wave. Main storm is a soggy disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Interesting on the GEM Southern stream cuts off. At 144 that low has only moved east less than 200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 I agree. The last couple have a little to do with my thinking as well but there is some other things as well related to Solar/enso etc. Maybe i'll do something up ( more detailed ) in the next week or so. Please do. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Interesting on the GEM Southern stream cuts off. At 144 that low has only moved east less than 200 miles. Euro had this solution a couple of runs back I think. Regardless, verbatim, the 12z GGEM drops a crap load of precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Please do. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Euro had this solution a couple of runs back I think. Regardless, verbatim, the 12z GGEM drops a crap load of precip here. Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Eww, 12z GFS would be our worst case scenario. Nothing like 40 degrees with Rain/Fog, Mud and flooding...with a crusty 1-2" on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4. Well at least most of the models are depicting a high QPF event. Timeframe, duration, track, etc etc to be determined I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 If we can get a bit more cold air to work with this could be a big event for someone, not quite there yet on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 man the 12z GGEM out through 180 would save the winter in ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z GGEM is out on e-Wall. Mike (SSC) pretty much gets continuous precip from hour 96 to 180. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z GGEM is out on e-Wall. Mike (SSC) pretty much gets continuous precip from hour 96 to 180. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html feet upon feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 feet upon feet Incredible. Like you said, it would save the winter for many of you. Nice to look at anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Winter needs to end as soon as possible. kthxs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 are we including the WAA snows on thursday night in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I think we should. NAM/GFS spitting out .3-.4 QPF for most of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 It looks like a series of wet, sloppy systems over the next two weeks, probably most of them resulting in sloppy messes for the GL,, esp. NE IL. SE WI..... I don't foresee any kind of "springlike" weather for any prolonged period within the next 2 weeks or so. It looks like day time highs in most places around the region don't eclipse 40 degrees. Friends and family are wondering where spring is, but I have a funny feeling that winter is going to be hanging around for at least the next 2-3 weeks, if not longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z GGEM is out on e-Wall. Mike (SSC) pretty much gets continuous precip from hour 96 to 180. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Seriously, that's the kind of storm you'd see in my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 GEM/NAM/GFS would probably be a 4-6 inch event for WI/MN for the WAA snows. EURO is less then .1 QPF. Out to 102 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4. I'll say this...the ceiling on this event is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Some areas are gonna end up with a lot of rain. Who knows about the snow part right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z Euro definitely a bit slower than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Where exactly is YZZ btw? What part of Canada? Through HR 144, parts of IN/OH receive over 2 inches of rain. TN/N. AL receive over 3-3.5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Euro ends up faster after starting out slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 996 low developing in COL already. Probably will die out, but who knows. Active pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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