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March 4-6 Potential Winter Storm


Chicago WX

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Eww, 12z GFS would be our worst case scenario.

It's ok the SE trend is still alive. I think... We need a strong storm to come along, wind up, which not only increases our snow chances with that particular storm but lays down some cold air for the next one. Until that happens look for weak lows with mostly rain here in the great lakes.

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Eww, 12z GFS would be our worst case scenario.

meh.. Really not surprising as both the 00z GFS and euro was farther se vs their ensembles. Ofcourse this is not yet set in stone either.

Just that typically when the ensembles are farther to the nw vs the OP we see shift that way on the following run.

Personally i am happy because lately everything has been shifting south once we get inside of day 3-4 and so i could use a little breathing room. The 00z GFS/EURO sucked balls IMO.

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meh.. Really not surprising as both the 00z GFS and euro was farther se vs their ensembles. Ofcourse this is not yet set in stone either.

Just that typically when the ensembles are farther to the nw vs the OP we see shift that way on the following run.

Personally i am happy because lately everything has been shifting south once we get inside of day 3-4 and so i could use a little breathing room. The 00z GFS/EURO sucked balls IMO.

Speak for yourself. :P

Eh, we're getting into "thread the needle" time for central Indiana...the hole is still big enough, but it's getting smaller every day. As for the pattern in the first week to ten days of March, NAO descending, PNA rising to neutral...I believe the getting will be good for some in the Midwest/GL (maybe more for the eastern 1/2, 2/3's) with the active pattern. We'll see...

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I will admit, it would be a hoot if this were the one storm (like the Groundhog Day Blizzard) that breaks the trend and goes NW after all these SE trenders. It's been the epic storms/bombs this season that have found a way to screw us.

But even then, with another storm on its heels and nearly 60" for the season, I can't complain if it did.

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Speak for yourself. :P

Eh, we're getting into "thread the needle" time for central Indiana...the hole is still big enough, but it's getting smaller every day. As for the pattern in the first week to ten days of March, NAO descending, PNA rising to neutral...I believe the getting will be good for some in the Midwest/GL (maybe more for the eastern 1/2, 2/3's) with the active pattern. We'll see...

I have a strong hunch we are gonna be talking winter weather much later into spring then what many are thinking. JUST a hunch i have. We'll see anyways.

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I have a strong hunch we are gonna be talking winter weather much later into spring then what many are thinking. JUST a hunch i have. We'll see anyways.

I have the same feeling myself. Not that it won't get warm at times, but I think the potential is there for wintry weather deeper into spring...especially in light after the past couple.

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I have the same feeling myself. Not that it won't get warm at times, but I think the potential is there for wintry weather deeper into spring...especially in light after the past couple.

I agree.

The last couple have a little to do with my thinking as well but there is some other things as well related to Solar/enso etc. Maybe i'll do something up ( more detailed ) in the next week or so.

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I agree.

The last couple have a little to do with my thinking as well but there is some other things as well related to Solar/enso etc. Maybe i'll do something up ( more detailed ) in the next week or so.

Please do. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter.

Interesting on the GEM

Southern stream cuts off. At 144 that low has only moved east less than 200 miles.

Euro had this solution a couple of runs back I think. Regardless, verbatim, the 12z GGEM drops a crap load of precip here.

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Please do. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter.

Euro had this solution a couple of runs back I think. Regardless, verbatim, the 12z GGEM drops a crap load of precip here.

Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4.

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Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4.

Well at least most of the models are depicting a high QPF event. Timeframe, duration, track, etc etc to be determined I guess. :lol:

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It looks like a series of wet, sloppy systems over the next two weeks, probably most of them resulting in sloppy messes for the GL,, esp. NE IL. SE WI.....

I don't foresee any kind of "springlike" weather for any prolonged period within the next 2 weeks or so. It looks like day time highs in most places around the

region don't eclipse 40 degrees.

Friends and family are wondering where spring is, but I have a funny feeling that winter is going to be hanging around for at least the next 2-3 weeks, if not longer.

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Precip maps are incredible. Here, SE MI/N IN would get destroyed. Looks like a stationary (although narrow) band of heavy snow. Too bad it's being depict as such by what is arguably the worst global model of the big 4.

I'll say this...the ceiling on this event is high.

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