snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Almost feel like it's pointless either analyzing the current batch of models or making a call on what I think is going to happen. I'm almost certain we're going to get thrown a curveball in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Almost feel like it's pointless either analyzing the current batch of models or making a call on what I think is going to happen. I'm almost certain we're going to get thrown a curveball in the next couple of days. The morning GRR discussion was speculating about whether the previous couple Euro runs were more correct. Imagine if we went back to that type of solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I'm almost certain we're going to get thrown a curveball in the next couple of days. And I am gonna hit it out of the park MKE AFD: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. THIS TAKES THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THICKNESS VALUES COOL ON THE GFS. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD SWITCH TO SNOW AROUND 9 PM AT MADISON AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MILWAUKEE. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES 0.40 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT WHICH COULD BE SNOW AT BOTH MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. TOTAL QPF FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS BACK UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE NAM...BUT MUCH LOWER ON THE GFS. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME LOCKING IN ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...SO WILL STILL USE MORE OF A BLEND IN POPS AND QPF BEFORE JUMPING BACK ON THE MORE NORTHERN NAM TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DTX likes the idea of deeper, more northerly moving low than what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Almost feel like it's pointless either analyzing the current batch of models or making a call on what I think is going to happen. I'm almost certain we're going to get thrown a curveball in the next couple of days. when you see all that energy sitting off the coast and spitting out at various intervals, its a fruitless endeavour to try and guess what may or may not happen. it really is an exercise in futility. by about 12z friday, we should have the 'general' idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Gonna be a pretty decent snow event for the cheeseheads on this run. Not to shabby here either. Now lets see this on the 00z runs! Harry, what's the spread like on the 12z Euro ensembles? One obvious trend is weaker. Another is less of them have east of apps low. The spread is now basically between here and eastern Ohio. However keep in mind that because it is a spag plot being used for all the members and only pic up on it if it is 1005mb or lower and a number of them may not just be showing it and thus weaker lows. There is however a couple ( 2 ) that has a slightly stronger lead wave that pops in WI at 54hrs that moves to N.MI. Remember this model has 51 ensemble members. In short there is still some decent spread granted it is slowly closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 when you see all that energy sitting off the coast and spitting out at various intervals, its a fruitless endeavour to try and guess what may or may not happen. it really is an exercise in futility. by about 12z friday, we should have the 'general' idea. I need storm 1 to phase less or storm 2 to reappear, otherwise I'm screwed. Looks like you get a decent thump on the 18z NAM although the transition line is really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not to shabby here either. Now lets see this on the 00z runs! One obvious trend is weaker. Another is less of them have east of apps low. The spread is now basically between here and eastern Ohio. However keep in mind that because it is a spag plot being used for all the members and only pic up on it if it is 1005mb or lower and a number of them may not just be showing it and thus weaker lows. There is however a couple ( 2 ) that has a slightly stronger lead wave that pops in WI at 54hrs that moves to N.MI. Remember this model has 51 ensemble members. In short there is still some decent spread granted it is slowly closing in. Did you read the GRR zone forecasts for tomorrow night through Saturday? They should have just said "any type of precip possible" instead of this "chance of freezing rain...rain likely...snow likely...sleet possible" laughable mumbo jumbo. I don't even know why I check their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I need storm 1 to phase less or storm 2 to reappear, otherwise I'm screwed. Looks like you get a decent thump on the 18z NAM although the transition line is really close. i suspect most of it is rain here. yesterday things were looking up, today things are looking down. there is zero consistency so not going to get too involved just yet. im still hopeful storm 2 reappaears, more of the 12z GFS ensembles had it vs the 00z ensembles, but it was along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z NAM Some of it's rain to start, but that's still a nice hit across E IA/NW IL/S WI/N MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Did you read the GRR zone forecasts for tomorrow night through Saturday? They should have just said "any type of precip possible" instead of this "chance of freezing rain...rain likely...snow likely...sleet possible" laughable mumbo jumbo. I don't even know why I check their forecasts. I saw it. Wait till you see the latest AFD that just went out. Yes the forecast is a hard one so i will give them that ( thus wise to do what they did with the zones etc ) but geez they are not even trying or so it seems following the AFD. It is really a shame to see what has been happening to this office because when i moved here i can safely say it was one of ( if not "the best" )the best in the region. I use to always post their AFD's because of how well written and detailed they were which had some good synoptic reasoning of their own as well and thus not just a crappy half assed run down of the models. Only one who still goes the distance anymore is WDM. Atleast in winter anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I saw it. Wait till you see the latest AFD that just went out. Yes the forecast is a hard one so i will give them that ( thus wise to do what they did with the zones etc ) but geez they are not even trying or so it seems following the AFD. It is really a shame to see what has been happening to this office because when i moved here i can safely say it was one of ( if not "the best" )the best in the region. I use to always post their AFD's because of how well written and detailed they were which had some good synoptic reasoning of their own as well and thus not just a crappy half assed run down of the models. Only one who still goes the distance anymore is WDM. Atleast in winter anyways. I read it a few minutes ago and pretty much put my hand on my head. I think they just wait until the 18Z NAM comes out and combine it somewhat with the 12Z GFS and create some messed up forecast that combines a bit of both model forecasts. They have been AWFUL this winter...AWFUL, as I'm sure you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I saw it. Wait till you see the latest AFD that just went out. Yes the forecast is a hard one so i will give them that ( thus wise to do what they did with the zones etc ) but geez they are not even trying or so it seems following the AFD. It is really a shame to see what has been happening to this office because when i moved here i can safely say it was one of ( if not "the best" )the best in the region. I use to always post their AFD's because of how well written and detailed they were which had some good synoptic reasoning of their own as well and thus not just a crappy half assed run down of the models. Only one who still goes the distance anymore is WDM. Atleast in winter anyways. They mentioned the fim model the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 i used to read AFDs all the time. now i get enough info from this board, and there are so many model runs, its impossible to follow everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS looks like it'll continue to have the northern and southern streams remain separate. Through 60, it looks like the northern stream is dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 They mentioned the fim model the other day. There is a few at this office who follow that model a bit closer and have been for a little over a year and or since it was released. Probably should check that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z NAM beyond 84hr would probably be a moderate snowfall too (like the GFS) here. I'll have to see the 18z DGEX to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z NAM beyond 84hr would probably be a moderate snowfall too (like the GFS) here. I'll have to see the 18z DGEX to be sure. DGEX has the 2nd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I saw it. Wait till you see the latest AFD that just went out. Yes the forecast is a hard one so i will give them that ( thus wise to do what they did with the zones etc ) but geez they are not even trying or so it seems following the AFD. It is really a shame to see what has been happening to this office because when i moved here i can safely say it was one of ( if not "the best" )the best in the region. I use to always post their AFD's because of how well written and detailed they were which had some good synoptic reasoning of their own as well and thus not just a crappy half assed run down of the models. Only one who still goes the distance anymore is WDM. Atleast in winter anyways. The forecaster for the synopsis,short term is hoving. I graduated with him and he started at that office about 4 years as a SCEP student so he's still a little bit new and i'm sure has only been writing AFD's for a short while, sometimes they just end up running out of time with the AFD and depends on how motivated the forecaster is with how in depth he wants to go also how comfortable he is going into the synoptics of the event at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DGEX has the 2nd low. Yeah, DGEX is basically the NAM extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Keep the streams separated longer, GFS buries me Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Keep the streams separated longer, GFS buries me Saturday night. At this time range, the GFS will either score a major coup or suffer a major bust. The next few model cycles will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The forecaster for the synopsis,short term is hoving. I graduated with him and he started at that office about 4 years as a SCEP student so he's still a little bit new and i'm sure has only been writing AFD's for a short while, sometimes they just end up running out of time with the AFD and depends on how motivated the forecaster is with how in depth he wants to go also how comfortable he is going into the synoptics of the event at this stage. I don't know because Bill ( WDM ) always seems to have plenty of time to write a decent AFD. Ofcourse he is the lead forecaster there but still. Point is though they have been lacking recently and it sucks to see considering what i remember coming out of this office at one time. I am not the only one to notice it either. Thus there is a problem. Hopefully they fix it. I did pass my concerns to Bill a few minutes ago. See what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Keep the streams separated longer, GFS buries me Saturday night. And all of Sunday. Nearly 1" of QPF all snow. We don't do too shabby back this way either with 3-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS QPF after 12z Sat. Find the 1.25" isohyet on the western side of that pcpn shield, and go west, and all that's snow (well at least from N IN northward). Compare that to the NAM's snow shield. World's apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The forecaster for the synopsis,short term is hoving. I graduated with him and he started at that office about 4 years as a SCEP student so he's still a little bit new and i'm sure has only been writing AFD's for a short while, sometimes they just end up running out of time with the AFD and depends on how motivated the forecaster is with how in depth he wants to go also how comfortable he is going into the synoptics of the event at this stage. Yeah, it wasn't a bad AFD other than not mentioning that the latest few trends have been colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 At this time range, the GFS will either score a major coup or suffer a major bust. The next few model cycles will be key. If I had to make a forecast for us, for the moment, I'd go with a GEM/UKIE compromise. Not as far north as the EURO/NAM but warmer than the GFS. Rather than all snow Saturday, I'd start us a rain, and maybe mix/change us later in the day/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z UKIE looks like it would be further north than 12z and more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I saw it. Wait till you see the latest AFD that just went out. Yes the forecast is a hard one so i will give them that ( thus wise to do what they did with the zones etc ) but geez they are not even trying or so it seems following the AFD. It is really a shame to see what has been happening to this office because when i moved here i can safely say it was one of ( if not "the best" )the best in the region. I use to always post their AFD's because of how well written and detailed they were which had some good synoptic reasoning of their own as well and thus not just a crappy half assed run down of the models. Only one who still goes the distance anymore is WDM. Atleast in winter anyways. I can certainly say this will not be happening down here at LBF once I get forecasting (an admittedly long time with the training process). Full effort will be put forth in all forecasts and AFD's/forecast products. Didn't read GRR AFD/forecast so I can't comment that--but on this end there will always be full effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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