Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ever heard of Cedar Point? I've been to Cedar Point, Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It would be something if end up back to where we started.. The highs and lows of the models is sort of like Charlie Sheen's life the past few months lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I've been to Cedar Point, Iowa. Never mind then. It's a small town east of Toledo and west of Cleveland on the Lake Erie shores (as 2 or 3 other people stated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 another run, another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How close is it from being the storm we saw on the models a few days ago, and what needs to change in order for this to happen? Obviously the LOW needs to be stronger, but what needs to happen in order for this to become stronger? Seems like the 12z EURO took a step forward today compared to the 0z EURO in terms of the strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It will be something if we end up right back where we started with a very wet part 1 and a very white part 2 in these parts. The amount of spread on the ensembles suggests that we shouldn't bite on any particular model yet. Some things are becoming a bit clearer but timing/track is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The amount of spread on the ensembles suggests that we shouldn't bite on any particular model yet. Some things are becoming a bit clearer but timing/track is still up in the air. I think i said it here a few days back but i'll say again. This thing will probably come down to nowcast time. Issues at hand is the lead wave. Some models/ensemble members put alot of their eggs in that while others not so much and have a better secondary system or whatever you like to call it and are struggling with that even. Then there is the kicker in the Pacific that plays into this mess. I strongly suspect the same will happen with that following system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS ensembles pick your outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS ensembles pick your outcome The wx buffet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS ensembles pick your outcome I'll take my chance with P009, P007, P004, P010, C000 and especially P002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 man what a dud the euro was lol couldnt get much worse for here.....warmer, drier and faster , the trifecta no consistency that i can see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How close is it from being the storm we saw on the models a few days ago, and what needs to change in order for this to happen? Obviously the LOW needs to be stronger, but what needs to happen in order for this to become stronger? Seems like the 12z EURO took a step forward today compared to the 0z EURO in terms of the strength. Well it sounds like the track is closer to the Armageddon scenario from 0z Tuesday, but I'll bet the moisture and cold air is lacking comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Kinda although on the EURO from about FDL to GB get about .25 QPF as snow from the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Kinda although on the EURO from about FDL to GB get about .25 QPF as snow from the system. So is it mostly rain south and east of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Well, my Thursday night-Friday snow is gone. Looks like the weekend potential is hanging by a thread. At least I picked up 0.1" this morning to get the fretting over a snowless March out of the way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 18z NAM looks fairly different than the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Here's what I'm talking about 18z at 54 hours 12z at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Here's what I'm talking about 18z at 54 hours 12z at 60 hours 18z looks a lot slower with both waves, but in both cases a phase is going to occur. Would love that northern wave to speed up some and sink the baroclinic zone south for the southern stream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Between 72 and 78 hours NAM kind of wobbles the sfc low eastward (maybe a tick SEward) across northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Gonna be a pretty decent snow event for the cheeseheads on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 interesting @81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Nice deformation snows continue over WI/IL/IN/MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 May not be the GGEM/EURO rainmaggedon of yesterday, but NAM sure gives me a drenching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Gonna be a pretty decent snow event for the cheeseheads on this run. Too bad it won't mean anything until it is within 12 hours of the event. This is worse than when the NAM predicted a foot with the last system 24 hours in advance. At least then, you thought you could trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NAM looks a bit like the EURO in terms of the track. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Too bad it won't mean anything until it is within 12 hours of the event. This is worse than when the NAM predicted a foot with the last system 24 hours in advance. At least then, you thought you could trust it. Sure, wouldn't be wise to take it verbatim, but just another indication that rather substantial shifts one way or another are very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Too bad it won't mean anything until it is within 12 hours of the event. This is worse than when the NAM predicted a foot with the last system 24 hours in advance. At least then, you thought you could trust it. you can never trust the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Harry, what's the spread like on the 12z Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Even larger differences between this run of the NAM compared to the 0z run at 12z saturday. This is what I talked about yesterday, the northern stream s/w is stronger this run and dives southeast out of MT in SD/NE and attempting to phase with the southern stream wave coming east where the 0z run last night had a much weaker northern stream and didn't phase them at all. This is causing it to be stronger and a tad slower this run. It would be an advisory level snow event here, a nice run. Lets see what the 0z run does. 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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