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March 4-6 Potential Winter Storm


Chicago WX

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How close is it from being the storm we saw on the models a few days ago, and what needs to change in order for this to happen? Obviously the LOW needs to be stronger, but what needs to happen in order for this to become stronger?

Seems like the 12z EURO took a step forward today compared to the 0z EURO in terms of the strength.

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It will be something if we end up right back where we started with a very wet part 1 and a very white part 2 in these parts.

The amount of spread on the ensembles suggests that we shouldn't bite on any particular model yet. Some things are becoming a bit clearer but timing/track is still up in the air.

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The amount of spread on the ensembles suggests that we shouldn't bite on any particular model yet. Some things are becoming a bit clearer but timing/track is still up in the air.

I think i said it here a few days back but i'll say again. This thing will probably come down to nowcast time.

Issues at hand is the lead wave. Some models/ensemble members put alot of their eggs in that while others not so much and have a better secondary system or whatever you like to call it and are struggling with that even.

Then there is the kicker in the Pacific that plays into this mess.

I strongly suspect the same will happen with that following system.

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How close is it from being the storm we saw on the models a few days ago, and what needs to change in order for this to happen? Obviously the LOW needs to be stronger, but what needs to happen in order for this to become stronger?

Seems like the 12z EURO took a step forward today compared to the 0z EURO in terms of the strength.

Well it sounds like the track is closer to the Armageddon scenario from 0z Tuesday, but I'll bet the moisture and cold air is lacking comparatively.

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Gonna be a pretty decent snow event for the cheeseheads on this run.

Too bad it won't mean anything until it is within 12 hours of the event. This is worse than when the NAM predicted a foot with the last system 24 hours in advance. At least then, you thought you could trust it.

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Too bad it won't mean anything until it is within 12 hours of the event. This is worse than when the NAM predicted a foot with the last system 24 hours in advance. At least then, you thought you could trust it.

Sure, wouldn't be wise to take it verbatim, but just another indication that rather substantial shifts one way or another are very possible.

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Even larger differences between this run of the NAM compared to the 0z run at 12z saturday. This is what I talked about yesterday, the northern stream s/w is stronger this run and dives southeast out of MT in SD/NE and attempting to phase with the southern stream wave coming east where the 0z run last night had a much weaker northern stream and didn't phase them at all. This is causing it to be stronger and a tad slower this run. It would be an advisory level snow event here, a nice run. Lets see what the 0z run does.

0z

18z

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