SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 BTW if you were referring just to severe weather.....its funny actually....severe weather was at a huge surplus from the late 1990s to early 2000s...then when the heavy snowfall took over the surplus of severe ceased and downright grinded to a near-halt in 2007-09. It returned with a vengeance in 2010 and we were finally able to overlap surplus of severe and surplus of snow at the same time (2010-11). If it continues in 2011 remains to be seen, but I have confidence in stebo's prediction (though for me personally snow is a TRILLION times more important than severe). Wow...Nice Rant but its obvious you didn't pick up on the joke.. Cant say I dont agree with you though..Good write up...(Look for the joke though ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's definitely done a decent job this winter. EURO on the other hand has been mediocre (which is poor by its standards). Yeah, I'm sure you can dig up its H5 scores and tell me different, but I don't think I'm delusional in saying that this winter it's come back to the pack. Yeah H5 scores don't tell the whole story. Euro was mediocre for some of the hybrid clippers back in December for MBY...of course the GFS was not much better. NAM seemed to handle those pretty well, though again talking about LAF. But as we've talked about before, no model is perfect and to take them verbatim (especially outside 60 hours) is probably a bit foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 a few 12z nam frames have dripped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The models are so sick of us bitching about them that they went on strike, effective 12z 3-2-11. Showing their solidarity with Wisconsin! Like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z NAM is out to 6hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Wow...Nice Rant but its obvious you didn't pick up on the joke.. Cant say I dont agree with you though..Good write up...(Look for the joke though ) As I said I sorta knew it was tongue in cheek But its really surprising how much complaining OVERALL we see on these boards, I mean from region to region throughout the board, not singling anyone out. From the lamenting about no epic storm here, to some in south-central OH complaining about "worst winter ever" when theyve still seen 30" of snow (theyve probably had 3 dozen winters under 20" in the last 100 years)...and I remember PLENTY of complaining in NE prior to Christmas. Weather is an interesting force, and I just worry that one of these winters soon karma is going to show and show everyone what a sh*tty winter is (I PRAY Im wrong)...thats why I try to enjoy the times we are in as much as possible. When you have to cancel your annual up-north snow trip because theres more snow in your yard than by Lake Superior, its good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 OT: This chase season could cost allot of money. NYMEX Light sweet crude Oil just blasted through 100.00 a barrel. 4 dollar a gallon gas is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 OT: This chase season could cost allot of money. NYMEX Light sweet crude Oil just blasted through 100.00 a barrel. 4 dollar a gallon gas is coming. It's already here, thankfully i fill up once every couple months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From the early looks..12z looks slightly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From the early looks..12z looks slightly unchanged. Pretty big differences compared to 6z. Much more phasing this run, which in turn shifts the track further north. Extrapolating, it doesn't look like there'd be a 2nd storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Pretty big differences compared to 6z. Much more phasing this run, which in turn shifts the track further north. Extrapolating, it doesn't look like there'd be a 2nd storm either. yep. I was going by hr 6..But your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 A nicely done AFD from DVN A CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT FIVE WAVE PATTERN TO A FOUR WAVE WILL OCCUR STARTING THIS WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS BUILDING A RIDGE ALONG THE DATE LINE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROF IS DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST AS THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THE AMPLIFYING FIVE WAVE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND TRANSITION INTO A LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLIFIED FOUR WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE NEGATIVE PDO...WEAKENING LA NINA...AND WARM SST ANOMALIES ARE TRYING TO OVERWHELM CLIMATOLOGY BUT ARE NOT SUCCEEDING AS WELL. AS A RESULT...ONCE THE PATTERN CHANGE HAS FINISHED A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK NOT FAR FROM THE AREA. STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS WHEN THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING. DUE TO THE ERRONEOUS SNOW FIELD INPUT INTO THE MODELS...ALL ARE TAKING THE NEXT SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH. THERE ARE MANY SIMILARITIES TO THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE THAT OCCURRED LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL MARK WHERE THE LEAD SFC WAVE WILL GO...WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA. THE MAIN SYSTEM LOW WILL GO THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SEVERE OUTBREAK. THE WRF IS RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASONS IF ONE USES THE 295K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND THE 300K-305K OMEGA. ADJUSTING THE GFS FURTHER TO THE NORTH/WEST ONE GETS THE SAME RESULTS. THEREFORE...THE LEAD SFC WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. ISOLD/SCT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIFT TOOL STRONGLY SUPPORTS AND HAS SO FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA FRIDAY EVENING...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KSQI TO KOTM LINE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST FORCING/CONVERGENCE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ALSO BE SEEN IN THIS AREA. THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLEAR BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME DRY AIR OVER THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING TRUE... THEN STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL OCCUR WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF SLEET OR FZRA IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA. CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ICE DURING THE CHANGE OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS is more of the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GGEM moves the low near the Ohio River and into central PA at 96 hours. I checked out the 00z GFS ensembles and there was a pretty decent amount of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Looks like a 50 mile swath of heavy snow on the backside that clips SE MI. Ottawa or places in canada will get hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 00z GFS ensembles at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There's a rather significant difference in the 500 mb height field between the 12z runs at 72 hours. UKMET has a sharper trough farther west than the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Looks like a 50 mile swath of heavy snow on the backside that clips SE MI. Ottawa or places in canada will get hammered with snow. Yeah, on the 12z GGEM the far east side gets a moderate dumping, but there's nothing NW of there. This is with the second wave BTW. Everyone else besides far SE Michigan (some lighter snows in KY/OH) and parts of Ontario/Quebec gets all rain with both waves. SSC gets a light to moderate dumping too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 UKMET has a 1005 mb low near Sandusky at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Lets see how this plays out, I am not convinced this system will be so weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I never had any hope for snow across southern Ohio on this one. I just didn't see that secondary doing anything to write home about. I think if were going to get another measurable snow which we have NOT had one since January. What I mean by that is 1+ inches. That will happen next week or the week after.....If we don't get another 1+ snowfall it would be a pitiful way to end winter for areas south of I 70 in Ohio and north of i 64..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Where the heck is Sandusky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Between Toledo and Cleveland right on the lakeshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Between Toledo and Cleveland right on the lakeshore.... After looking again, the low might be closer to Toledo. Northwest Ohio either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Where the heck is Sandusky lol. Ever heard of Cedar Point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 No 1+ inch snow since January 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I never had any hope for snow across southern Ohio on this one. I just didn't see that secondary doing anything to write home about. I think if were going to get another measurable snow which we have NOT had one since January. What I mean by that is 1+ inches. That will happen next week or the week after.....If we don't get another 1+ snowfall it would be a pitiful way to end winter for areas south of I 70 in Ohio and north of i 64..... It happened up this way last year with our last inch+ in Feb which for some shattered some records for such a early occurrence. 2009 looked like it was headed for a record for the same and thus no snow that March either but ala April rolled in and had a couple of systems roll through dumping a few inches. Till the Calendar says May 1st i don't rule anything out and one look at the record books says why. Heck there has been snow storms here in May itself but that is extremely rare too and thus why i don't think much about it come May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z Euro looks pretty similar to the 00z run through 48. Maybe a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 UKMET has a 1005 mb low near Sandusky at 84 hours. It will be something if we end up right back where we started with a very wet part 1 and a very white part 2 in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 euro has a 1008 low over the southern tip of lake michigan. Much farther west and a tad stronger then 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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