Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 In all seriousness I often wonder why this is. Lake influenced after the MCS's cross the cooler water maybe?. It would be a great case study and interesting. Not sure whats worse...Getting a dry slot in a Blizzard or watching a Derecho fall apart just west of Lansing. Weather hates Michigan... Well, except for Joshy's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It just seems that everything under performs in SEMI. Although last Summer wasn't all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Stebo said it best in his signature he had. Hopefully this year I can change it to the Land of the Big Tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 In all seriousness I often wonder why this is. Lake influenced after the MCS's cross the cooler water maybe?. It would be a great case study and interesting. Not sure whats worse...Getting a dry slot in a Blizzard or watching a Derecho fall apart just west of Lansing. That might be a small factor in some situations but face it, you guys don't get the good combo of ingredients to come together as frequently as areas farther south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 In all seriousness I often wonder why this is. Lake influenced after the MCS's cross the cooler water maybe?. It would be a great case study and interesting. Not sure whats worse...Getting a dry slot in a Blizzard or watching a Derecho fall apart just west of Lansing. We should take that as a blessing. Why have a storm/tornadoes damage your home, kill people, and such. I know we all love weather, and the severity of it, but honestly the dying storms, derechos is fine with me. We dont need this city to be destroyed anymore, its already a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 We should take that as a blessing. Why have a storm/tornadoes damage your home, kill people, and such. I know we all love weather, and the severity of it, but honestly the dying storms, derechos is fine with me. We dont need this city to be destroyed anymore, its already a big mess. 7/2/97...F2 (or 3) in Detroit: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=30&year=1997&month=7&day=2&hour=12&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 LOL, no surprise.. Model madness continues.... Is it just me, or is this the worst winter for models ever!!! It seems like they used to come to some consensus even days before the event. Now it's like a Marx brothers movie! I think it all started with that December 12th storm that nobody could figure out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That might be a small factor in some situations but face it, you guys don't get the good combo of ingredients to come together as frequently as areas farther south and west. I would actually say that at times the lake can help the cause with severe wx especially out this way. All depends on the set up. Personally i have no complaints as far as this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 6z GFS would keep the heaviest snow SE of me. How far we've come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What about Mel Siliars? I think Paul Gross, Dave Rexroth and Sean Ash are the best then Chuck Gatica in our area....Hodak "blowdak" was always conservative, egotistical and arrogant in person. I got to know Sean personally when he was in Indy and still keep in contact with him on a regular basis and he is an awesome meteorologist - hated to see him leave Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It just seems like models tend to overhype the storms. then slowly cut down the prcp in half or even more. Then sometimes the storm comes back 48 prior to the event...so never know....6z gfs=boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Whens the last time a stronger secondary occured? February 5th-6th, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 If the #2 storm doesn't reappear in all its ferocity, this will be the 2nd time this season that a EURO/GGEM tag team tried to print out a QPF bomb in the med. range, and was schooled handily by the GFS. Other one was that early November phantom storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Weather hates Michigan... Well, except for Joshy's backyard. Meh Im sure thats tongue in cheek...but its really annoying how almost no one realizes how special these times are in. Yeah, weather hates MI..thats why weve been setting snowfall records left and right the past decade all over the state (particularly southern part). You look at other cities in the region with 120+ year climate bases (ORD, MKE, CLE, GRR) and they all have been setting some decent snow records too but not one has set nearly as many as DTW. And it all seems SO underappreciated by the storm lovers on this board (in contrast to the general public whos sick of it) just because we cant get that one damn epic storm. We will get it all right, Im guessing in the next 3 years, but its only fitting that it will occur in a less-than-stellar winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 7/2/97...F2 (or 3) in Detroit: http://mesonet.agron...our=12&minute=0 Yup, It already looks like a ef5 tornado moved through in some areas in Detroit... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Meh Im sure thats tongue in cheek...but its really annoying how almost no one realizes how special these times are in. Yeah, weather hates MI..thats why weve been setting snowfall records left and right the past decade all over the state (particularly southern part). You look at other cities in the region with 120+ year climate bases (ORD, MKE, CLE, GRR) and they all have been setting some decent snow records too but not one has set nearly as many as DTW. And it all seems SO underappreciated by the storm lovers on this board (in contrast to the general public whos sick of it) just because we cant get that one damn epic storm. We will get it all right, Im guessing in the next 3 years, but its only fitting that it will occur in a less-than-stellar winter. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 If the #2 storm doesn't reappear in all its ferocity, this will be the 2nd time this season that a EURO/GGEM tag team tried to print out a QPF bomb in the med. range, and was schooled handily by the GFS. Other one was that early November phantom storm. Contrary to popular belief by some, the GFS may not be useless after all. Who knows though, nothing lately has been modeled all that great...even in the short range. Still time left for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It just seems that everything under performs in SEMI. Although last Summer wasn't all that bad. Look at the 6 biggest snowstorms of this winter: Dec 12th: overperform Jan 11/12th- performed right at expectations Feb 1/2nd- underperform Feb 5- WAY overperform Feb 20/21- WAY overperform Feb 25- underperform for many, hit expectations for some Even the smaller events have been doing as forecasted or better. Outside of the Feb 1/2 storm, it has mostly been a season of overperformers. As for severe weather...yes last summer was exceptional. Much like we have been demolishing snowfall records left and right, last year SE MI set a record for something like the 2nd or 3rd most tornadoes ever in June. Seems like every region on this board has a great underappreciation for their weather, with SE MI leading the pack. It seems like unless someones house is destroyed by a tornado or buried in 4 feet of snow that falls in 10 hours, some are never happy (yes, now its MY turn to be tongue in cheek ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Look at the 6 biggest snowstorms of this winter: Dec 12th: overperform Jan 11/12th- performed right at expectations Feb 1/2nd- underperform Feb 5- WAY overperform Feb 20/21- WAY overperform Feb 25- underperform for many, hit expectations for some Even the smaller events have been doing as forecasted or better. Outside of the Feb 1/2 storm, it has mostly been a season of overperformers. As for severe weather...yes last summer was exceptional. Much like we have been demolishing snowfall records left and right, last year SE MI set a record for something like the 2nd or 3rd most tornadoes ever in June. Seems like every region on this board has a great underappreciation for their weather, with SE MI leading the pack. It seems like unless someones house is destroyed by a tornado or buried in 4 feet of snow that falls in 10 hours, some are never happy (yes, now its MY turn to be tongue in cheek ). +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Look at the 6 biggest snowstorms of this winter: Dec 12th: overperform Jan 11/12th- performed right at expectations Feb 1/2nd- underperform Feb 5- WAY overperform Feb 20/21- WAY overperform Feb 25- underperform for many, hit expectations for some Even the smaller events have been doing as forecasted or better. Outside of the Feb 1/2 storm, it has mostly been a season of overperformers. As for severe weather...yes last summer was exceptional. Much like we have been demolishing snowfall records left and right, last year SE MI set a record for something like the 2nd or 3rd most tornadoes ever in June. Seems like every region on this board has a great underappreciation for their weather, with SE MI leading the pack. It seems like unless someones house is destroyed by a tornado or buried in 4 feet of snow that falls in 10 hours, some are never happy (yes, now its MY turn to be tongue in cheek ). Yes sir, and I got to see one!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Contrary to popular belief by some, the GFS may not be useless after all. Who knows though, nothing lately has been modeled all that great...even in the short range. Still time left for some changes. It's definitely done a decent job this winter. EURO on the other hand has been mediocre (which is poor by its standards). Yeah, I'm sure you can dig up its H5 scores and tell me different, but I don't think I'm delusional in saying that this winter it's come back to the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol, looks like no NAM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This system is going to have a strong Plains cap associated with it, and thus I expect most of the convection to be north of the warm front (in the cool/cold sector). It will have a significant portion of its QPF from convection, and models don't particularly handle that too well (as we saw with the last system), so just be aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DET gets .15 frozen after over 1" rain... Its nice how the GFS/EURO keep waffling over us getting advisory+ type snow or nothing at all. Just need 1" for another 60"+ season, would be 5th in last 9 years. This winter gets an A or A+ from me regardless, but it will be "A" if March 2011 pulls a March 2009/2010 and we dont get that minor snow to hit 60" (chances of that actually happening are like 5% imo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol, looks like no NAM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It just seems that everything under performs in SEMI. Although last Summer wasn't all that bad. BTW if you were referring just to severe weather.....its funny actually....severe weather was at a huge surplus from the late 1990s to early 2000s...then when the heavy snowfall took over the surplus of severe ceased and downright grinded to a near-halt in 2007-09. It returned with a vengeance in 2010 and we were finally able to overlap surplus of severe and surplus of snow at the same time (2010-11). If it continues in 2011 remains to be seen, but I have confidence in stebo's prediction (though for me personally snow is a TRILLION times more important than severe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol, looks like no NAM this morning. The models are so sick of us bitching about them that they went on strike, effective 12z 3-2-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yes sir, and I got to see one!!!! I saw the destruction of the Dundee tornado last summer. I was filled with awe at the power of nature, but it was sad more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 +100 :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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