Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 True, but the chances of that happening are going down by each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 1-2 feet here lol sad part is that i want the more complex scenario to play out with that second piece of energy and a big second low after the wave train i want this to be epic qpf even if it mean ptype issues sad Plus you get some snow from that coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Don't underestimate the importance of sampling. There's a good reason the models failed epicly with our 4-6" of partly sunny back in early February. Oh..You mean the storm that Rich Lutterman went for the win on...When he called for 0.8 for Downriver and they ended up with 10 inches..How can I forget? I know the importance of sampling its just funny hearing that quote every night 2-3 days prior to our regional events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can't believe we were talking about a 20 inch + storm on some of these models just 24-36 hours ago. Wow. GFS has consistently been the most progressive/unimpressive (relatively) with QPF of the globals. If the GEM or the EURO come in with a similar solution, then I'd start to worry if I were you. Now personally, I'd take the 0z GFS in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Plus you get some snow from that coastal. some yeah anyways, thats 5+ days out. im glad the bz zone is shfting SE for the first event....but im still going to hope that S piece for the second storm is more energetic and we get a bigger storm further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Powerball: Or are you talking about the other Rich Lutterman fail...1 inch for Feb 5th..Most of Detroit received in excess of 5 inches..Or his greatest call with the Dec 12-13th storm..."well folks just a little to shovel about 1 to 3 inches" Bingo 7-9 inches here..lol happens every year..When will WJBK demote that clown to traffic reporting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Oh..You mean the storm that Rich Lutterman went for the win on...When he called for 0.8 for Downriver and they ended up with 10 inches..How can I forget? I know the importance of sampling its just funny hearing that quote every night 2-3 days prior to our regional events.. No, that was the February 20th-21st (President's Day) storm. I'm talking about our 4-6" of partly sunny on February 4th-6th, the one where the models made the 200+ mile shift within 24 hours of the storm (they went from a supressed low along the gulf coast to a dumping in Dallas/Tulsa to a cutter over Cleveland in less than one day). But back to Rich Lutherman, that guy received an award on air for "accurately forecasting" The Groundhog Day Blizzard. I really hate that one underachieved after discovering what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 No, that was the February 20th-21st (President's Day) storm. I'm talking about our 4-6" of partly sunny on February 4th-6th, the one where the models made the 200+ mile shift within 24 hours of the storm (they went from a supressed low along the gulf coast to a dumping in Dallas/Tulsa to a cutter over Cleveland in less than one day). But back to Rich Lutherman, that guy received an award on air for "accurately forecasting" The Groundhog Day Blizzard. I really hate that one underachieved after discovering that. Gotcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Luterman/Channel 2 are a joke when it comes to snowfall forecasting. They are worse at lowballing than the models are at fantasizing qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Luterman/Channel 2 are a joke when it comes to snowfall forecasting. They are worse at lowballing than the models are at fantasizing qpf. Being a TV Met must be a hard job..Not only are you expected to forecast but your dead center in the eyes of people who dont know anything about Weather. Your average person wants to know the basics..Rain or shine? Snow and how much? Warm or cold?.. Seems like Channel 7 is the best..Jerry built that forecasting empire. He was a great Met! Detroits Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Luterman/Channel 2 are a joke when it comes to snowfall forecasting. They are worse at lowballing than the models are at fantasizing qpf. If nothing else, that pissed me off the most about the Groundhog Day Blizzard. Lutherman got lucky if nothing else, and they shower him with all sorts of fancy "best forecaster" awards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Being a TV Met must be a hard job..Not only are you expected to forecast but your dead center in the eyes of people who dont know anything about Weather. Your average person wants to know the basics..Rain or shine? Snow and how much? Warm or cold?.. Seems like Channel 7 is the best..Jerry built that forecasting empire. He was a great Met! Detroits Skilling. Detroit's Skilling would be Jim Madeus or Paul Gross IMO. I also still miss Sonny Eliot. I remember him specifically forecasting (the day before) 4-8" for the metro are with the FEbruary 5th -6th, 2008 storm, and he was the only one who got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Detroit's Skilling would be Jim Madeus or Paul Gross IMO. I also still miss Sonny Eliot. I remember him specifically forecasting (the day before) 4-8" for the metro are with the FEbruary 5th -6th storm, and he was the only one who got it right. What about Mel Siliars? I think Paul Gross, Dave Rexroth and Sean Ash are the best then Chuck Gatica in our area....Hodak "blowdak" was always conservative, egotistical and arrogant in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS BUFKIT for YYZ is 1.64" of QPF, 1.25" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS BUFKIT for YYZ is 1.64" of QPF, 1.25" snow. Nice!!! Let's just get things a tad colder and then we can safely lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What about Mel Siliars? I think Paul Gross, Dave Rexroth and Sean Ash are the best then Chuck Gatica in our area....Hodak "blowdak" was always conservative, egotistical and arrogant in person. Rexroth and Ash are good..Funny because Ash has a FB page..He really knows his stuff when you pick his brain..I made a comment about a EURO Run on his page about the 20th storm..He went off on a serious rant about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Nice!!! Let's just get things a tad colder and then we can safely lock it in. haha, lock it in. It's all downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What about Mel Siliars? I think Paul Gross, Dave Rexroth and Sean Ash are the best then Chuck Gatica in our area....Hodak "blowdak" was always conservative, egotistical and arrogant in person. Agreed...Gross, Rexroth and Ash are most willing to advertise a storm as opposed to passing it off until the storm is right on us. Gross deserves the lead spot but he's not on often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 fooking ggem slow as maple syrup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What about Mel Siliars? I think Paul Gross, Dave Rexroth and Sean Ash are the best then Chuck Gatica in our area....Hodak "blowdak" was always conservative, egotistical and arrogant in person. Hey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Hey now [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Rexroth and Ash are good..Funny because Ash has a FB page..He really knows his stuff when you pick his brain..I made a comment about a EURO Run on his page about the 20th storm..He went off on a serious rant about the models. Justin Ryan the night before the Feb 20/21 storm called for 7-10 inches north of 59. The next morning Luderman pulled that plug. called for 1-3 inches north. Hes by far the worst Met in Detroit. So I think Justin Ryan has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 haha, lock it in. It's all downhill from here. Sitting in a good spot for this one.... knock on woody. Me and Harry sitting and trying to figure out how we can lower the grades to this winter.. If it wasn't for the blizzard this winter would be looking at a c- lol at your sig "its time for spring" pulling out the tricks to try and piss ole man winter off, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GGEM through 84. Looks somewhat south of its 12z run with storm 1 but not as weak/south as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Justin Ryan the night before the Feb 20/21 storm called for 7-10 inches north of 59. The next morning Luderman pulled that plug. called for 1-3 inches north. Hes by far the worst Met in Detroit. So I think Justin Ryan has potential. Him and Starr... Glad they got rid of Breese on 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sitting in a good spot for this one.... knock on woody. Me and Harry sitting and trying to figure out how we can lower the grades to this winter.. If it wasn't for the blizzard this winter would be looking at a c- lol at your sig "its time for spring" pulling out the tricks to try and piss ole man winter off, nice. Yeah, c- is what I'm thinking about. Works for me since I didn't get the blizzard. lol, time for spring as kick in the balls to old man winter. Didn't think of it that way. Hey, worked with the not getting to 30" nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 ukie at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 UKIE looks a bit north of the GFS at hr 72 and a tad stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z GEFS mean looks identical to the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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