wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Thus what happens when systems don't dig and YES it could happen with this. So the best way to get decent snow/precip in coldsector would be have the low come into the Plains/Texas farther south before making a turn towards the north. This helps bring up more GOM moisture and as well allows the cold air to get in a bit deeper. Rare is the day when you see a system tracking ene dumping big huge amounts of snow. Most of the biggest snowstorms have come up from the sw/ssw/south in this region. The exception is with closed lows tracking east/ene etc. Thanks, I'll know what to hope for. Right now, do most of the models have this coming in around the TX panhandle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Trough with the NAM at 84 looks pretty flat. Unless it undergoes rapid digging/deepening, I think it'd be pretty far east with the 2nd storm. At least UKMETish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Thanks, I'll know what to hope for. Right now, do most of the models have this coming in around the TX panhandle? W.TX might be the best way to put it. BTW. It would be different if we have a better supply of cold as well. Still even in deep winter i notice models tend to over do QPF with these type of systems in the mid range leading up to day 2-4. Always exceptions ofcourse as well and thus see the MN/MSP special back in Dec. In short can get help from elsewhere via more dynamics for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Trough with the NAM at 84 looks pretty flat. Unless it undergoes rapid digging/deepening, I think it'd be pretty far east with the 2nd storm. At least UKMETish. Meh it IS the nam and beyond 48hrs at that we are discussing. Thus why i am not worried about it. Still like discussing it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Meh it IS the nam and beyond 48hrs at that we are discussing. Thus why i am not worried about it. Still like discussing it though. Yeah, I hear you. I'm sure the models will be all over the map before this one's settled We were discussing the EURO ensembles before. Mean sfc low progression seemed to be in between the GFS and the OP EURO. Any insights about what the individual members showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, I hear you. I'm sure the models will be all over the map before this one's settled We were discussing the EURO ensembles before. Mean sfc low progression seemed to be in between the GFS and the OP EURO. Any insights about what the individual members showed? Seriously? They were a bit all over the place between say Chicago ( none of the members were nw of Chicago ) into MI to east of the apps to about i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Seriously? They were a bit all over the place between say Chicago ( none of the members were nw of Chicago ) into MI to east of the apps to about i95. lol, no help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Seriously? They were a bit all over the place between say Chicago ( none of the members were nw of Chicago ) into MI to east of the apps to about i95. In other words, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 In other words, stay tuned. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS going even further SE with wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS is worse then 18z. Rain for pretty much everybody. Weak low, no signs of a secondary developing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS is worse then 18z. Rain for pretty much everybody. Weak low, no signs of a secondary developing as well. At least it goes along with its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS going even further SE with wave 1 Front end stuff keeping it suppressed, just like the last storm. GRR mentioned this earlier today. Can we just fast forward to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS is worse then 18z. Rain for pretty much everybody. Weak low, no signs of a secondary developing as well. Looks like some type of wintry precip here by 96, but it'd be marginal. And yeah, no secondary development here. H5 s/w is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol, I actually end with a good deal of snow with this run. Good news for the rest of you. Zero chance it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There's a little surface reflection in Alabama at 96 hours but that probably won't do much for anyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Definitely a big difference for Detroit this run. We least get moderate snow after all that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, for me it's more an indication of nervousness, but I have a feeling this is going to be shifting a bunch over the next couple of days at least until BETTER SAMPLING can be attained. I know, we've heard it said a thousand times. If I got a buck for every time I heard that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 talk about a change in the models in the last 24-36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There's a little surface reflection in Alabama at 96 hours but that probably won't do much for anyone here. There's some additional s/w energy coming in from the west at 120 that looks like it's going to try and phase with the initial s/w over the Apps. But like you said, probably too far east for most of us. However, it gives the EURO/GEM solution some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Snow bugs just got B-Smacked with these 2 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 If I got a buck for every time I heard that.. I didn't say it this time.... I have NEVER said anything of the sort....we could almost start a thread of classic quotes....me and my "once in gets sampled....or once it enters the upper air network"...."cutter"....etc....well not a thread but you get the point........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Storm 2 remains a coastal on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 1-2 feet here lol sad part is that i want the more complex scenario to play out with that second piece of energy and a big second low after the wave train i want this to be epic qpf even if it mean ptype issues sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can't believe we were talking about a 20 inch + storm on some of these models just 24-36 hours ago. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 If I got a buck for every time I heard that.. Don't underestimate the importance of sampling. There's a good reason the models failed epicly with our 4-6" of partly sunny back in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Storm 2 remains a coastal on the GFS. Who the heck cares about the Go Far South model? I think I'm done with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can't believe we were talking about a 20 inch + storm on some of these models just 24-36 hours ago. Wow. It wouldn't take a whole lot to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can't believe we were talking about a 20 inch + storm on some of these models just 24-36 hours ago. Wow. It's still on the table, the cold air has sort of adjusted itself though. But as Hoosier said it won't take much to re-adjust it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS Data supports a decent snowfall here, a little marginal but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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