snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 almost a non event for the western lks Verbatim it looks pretty meh, but I think's a strong step towards the EURO/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Verbatim it looks pretty meh, but I think's a strong step towards the EURO/GEM. Its actually a decent run for SEMI Rain>to Wet Snow considering what the GFS was showing last night..I wonder if the GTA will see an Ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Its actually a decent run for SEMI Rain>to Wet Snow considering what the GFS was showing last night Two favorable tracks in a row but no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Its actually a decent run for SEMI Rain>to Wet Snow considering what the GFS was showing last night..I wonder if the GTA will see an Ice event Another shift to the SE and maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Just noticed TWN has 2" of rain forecast for Saturday. It'll be 0.1" by Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Takes forever for the secondary to get going. So much so that the next storm is already in the plains before the secondary leaves New england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...HAVE GREATLY TONED DOWN THECURRENT HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT ADVERTISED ON THE LATEST GFS/00C ECMWF FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES OF THE ABOVE SUGGEST A MUCH MORE TAME...SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT PIVOTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A TRACK EERILY FAMILIAR TO SO MANY OTHERS THIS PAST WINTER. ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT. STORM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAD A SIMILAR SET-UP ON EARLY MODEL ITERATIONS...ONLY TO SEE NORTHERN ENERGY OUTPACE ITS SOUTHERN COUNTERPART...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND FORCING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HAVE LEAPED FULL BORE TOWARDS THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...RELEGATING JUST CHANCE SNOW MENTION FAR SOUTHEAST...WHILE KEEPING NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOW...BY NO MEANS SAYING A MUCH HIGHER IMPACT EVENT CANNOT OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF NORTHERN ENERGY CAN DIG FURTHER...FORCING BUILDING EASTERN HEIGHTS AND A MUCH FURTHER NORTH PROPAGATION TO SAID STORM. HOWEVER...FEEL PERSISTENCE MUST REIGN SUPREME IN SUCH A PATTERN UNTIL EVIDENCE OVERWHELMING SUPPORTS THE LATER (AND EVEN THAN I MAY BE HESITANT!). Gaylord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It looks pretty impressive on the Water Vapor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18z nam is much colder and further south. A lot more where I was hoping it would go. I haven't had a chance to look but the h8 low must be south just based on the 850 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Silence is always an indication of palpable excitement for the upcoming model suite run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Silence is always an indication of palpable excitement for the upcoming model suite run. Yeah, for me it's more an indication of nervousness, but I have a feeling this is going to be shifting a bunch over the next couple of days at least until BETTER SAMPLING can be attained. I know, we've heard it said a thousand times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Silence is always an indication of palpable excitement for the upcoming model suite run. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DVN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE PROPAGATING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THIS PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LATEST 12Z RUNS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL MUCH INCONSISTENCY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS. WITHOUT SNOW COVER AND THINKING THAT LLVL BAROCLINICITY WILL LIE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA... WOULD THINK THE SYSTEM WOULD PULL UP FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE 06Z RUN GFS HAD SHOWED FOR A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THAT MODEL HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH IT/S LATEST RUN. FOR NOW WILL BALANCE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS BUT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IT/S WET BIAS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT POTENTIALLY HEAVY DEF ZONE RAINS TP SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. A HALF INCH POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLY BY MID SAT MORNING WITH THE APPROPRIATE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED UP OFF THE GULF. THIS WOULD PRESENT SOME HYDRO ISSUES ON THE RVR BASINS THAT ARE IMPACTED. A MIXTURE OF WET SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OR REGULAR RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA. TEMPS RISING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST HALF. AS DEEPENING SFC LOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MO AND TOWARD THE SOUTH CHICAGO AREA ON SAT...LLVL COLD CONVEYOR AND DYNAMICAL COOLING COULD PRODUCE A SWITCH OVER TO A BOUT OF HEAVY WET SNOW...BUT SNOW DEF ZONE PLACEMENT VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL GO WITH SNOW CHC/S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...AND A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. LINGERING DEF ZONE SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO SAT EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 DVN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE PROPAGATING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THIS PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LATEST 12Z RUNS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL MUCH INCONSISTENCY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS. WITHOUT SNOW COVER AND THINKING THAT LLVL BAROCLINICITY WILL LIE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA... WOULD THINK THE SYSTEM WOULD PULL UP FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE 06Z RUN GFS HAD SHOWED FOR A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THAT MODEL HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH IT/S LATEST RUN. FOR NOW WILL BALANCE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS BUT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IT/S WET BIAS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT POTENTIALLY HEAVY DEF ZONE RAINS TP SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AFTER 06Z WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. A HALF INCH POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLY BY MID SAT MORNING WITH THE APPROPRIATE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED UP OFF THE GULF. THIS WOULD PRESENT SOME HYDRO ISSUES ON THE RVR BASINS THAT ARE IMPACTED. A MIXTURE OF WET SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OR REGULAR RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA. TEMPS RISING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST HALF. AS DEEPENING SFC LOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MO AND TOWARD THE SOUTH CHICAGO AREA ON SAT...LLVL COLD CONVEYOR AND DYNAMICAL COOLING COULD PRODUCE A SWITCH OVER TO A BOUT OF HEAVY WET SNOW...BUT SNOW DEF ZONE PLACEMENT VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL GO WITH SNOW CHC/S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...AND A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. LINGERING DEF ZONE SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO SAT EVENING. Interesting that they are taking into account a low track that goes a little south of Chicago. I didn't think any of the models were this far north, were they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS took the low just south of Chicago. 6z GFS took it even farther north then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 In that case there were larger differences between the 12z Euro and 12z GFS than I thought, although I probably just remember the 18z GFS looking more in-line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From a cursory glance, 21z SREF mean is SE of the 15z mean but in fairly good agreement with the 18z GFS/12z EURO. Looking at H5 at 87, I can't tell what it would do (if it even has it) with the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 For those who were curious about the 12z GGEM precipitation type, it was all rain for everyone with the first wave and then with the second wave it was a nice hit for Eastern Indiana/Western Ohio through 120hr (Rain/Snow line stretched from Dayton to Sarnia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NAM looks to be a non-event for snow lovers. This is turning lame by each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z and 12z NAM are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 vs. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NAM looks to be a non-event for snow lovers. This is turning lame by each run. Yep, NAM is looking like last weekends' storm, with nothing on the cold side! What the heck is with these storms lately. Very lame indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NAM looks to be a non-event for snow lovers. This is turning lame by each run. Yea I think the past few runs of the euro have the secondary too far west. It only makes sense its a bit further east with all of the confluence and energy with the first couple waves of precip. Unless they move out pretty quick. We'll see. Not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z and 12z NAM are worlds apart. Yeah it's still too early to get caught up in the details. The thing that I'm noticing though is that no matter the final evolution, there is a lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 One thing I have learned with march storms is that more than any other time it seems you have to take model runs in the mdeium range with a huge grain of salt. March just seems to be a very volatile month for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 vs. 12z You should probably fix the times so that we're actually comparing runs valid at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Worrying about p-type pointlessness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I just had fun looking at the 12z and 18z clown maps for the GFS and NAM; until, that is, I stumbled upon the 18z GFS, putting us in a narrow area of very minor accumulations in between two areas of larger (4-6") snowfall. Will be interesting, as things can only go up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 00z NAM actually does have a narrow band of winter on the northwest side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yep, NAM is looking like last weekends' storm, with nothing on the cold side! What the heck is with these storms lately. Very lame indeed! Thus what happens when systems don't dig and YES it could happen with this. So the best way to get decent snow/precip in cold sector would be have the low come into the Plains/Texas farther south before making a turn towards the north. This helps bring up more GOM moisture and as well allows the cold air to get in a bit deeper. Rare is the day when you see a system tracking ene dumping big huge amounts of snow. Most of the biggest snowstorms have come up from the sw/ssw/south in this region. The exception is with closed lows tracking east/ene etc. *Edit* Not saying that happens either but i would give much better odd's to alot less QPF/Precip on the cold side if this thing does take that sort of track with that strength. East of here where they have more Ocean etc to work with a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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