snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Great minds think alike. Your agility FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 ECM ensembles back the GFS Disagree, GFS is a one hit wonder. Where as the Euro and its ensembles are a two parter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Obviously just potential at this point, but combining the prospects of massive flooding, svr wx threat, backside blizzard, and maybe even a narrow ice storm potential, this storm could make the GHD storm look like a little b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Obviously just potential at this point, but combining the prospects of massive flooding, svr wx threat, backside blizzard, and maybe even a narrow ice storm potential, this storm could make the GHD storm look like a little b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Obviously just potential at this point, but combining the prospects of massive flooding, svr wx threat, backside blizzard, and maybe even a narrow ice storm potential, this storm could make the GHD storm look like a little b**ch. Octo-bomb, Groundhog Day, and this potential one make for a nice set of storms. Not to leave out the Dec 2010 MN blizzard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 DTX The pseudo zonal flow over North America on Friday looks to be undergoing amplification as we head into the weekend...with eventual phasing off the northern and southern branches. Whether we end up with one large storm...or a series of lows remains to be seen. 12z GFS and majority of ensemble members indicate main low tracking through or west of Southeast Michigan late Saturday...suggesting we are looking mostly at heavy rain threat for the first half of the weekend. The 12z European however...indicating a flatter wave/cold front moving through the first half of the weekend...with more significant second low pressure system advancing into the southern/eastern Ohio Valley...placing Southeast Michigan in favorable spot for accumulating deformation snow for the second half of the weekend...with just enough cold air in place or feeding in. Even so...still not enough confidence to carry more than high chance this far out...see weaker and farther east solution of the 12z UKMET. Dry and seasonably cold conditions expected to follow for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 DTX goes with UKMET They didn't exactly go with the UKMET. They just mentioned the UKMET's easterly solution as a reason not to go overboard with pops this far out. Had they gone with the UKMET they probably would have dropped pops completely from their Sunday forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 LOL, how is that them going with the UKMET? They are saying that is a possibility, and they are showing why they don't have high confidence right now. That doesn't mean that they perfer the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 DTX goes with UKMET I wouldn't call that "going with the UKMET" at all...they were just listing off another possibility that the UKIE was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Damn, SSC beat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Euro has some 50+ kt 850 mb winds on the backside at 120 hours. Don't know if it would get tapped into but there would surely be some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Haha...shot down three times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Damn, SSC beat me. Like 30% of the satisfaction compared to if I had beat Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hurricane force wind warnings just off the shore of portland. This storm is monsterous. 968 as it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Octo-bomb, Groundhog Day, and this potential one make for a nice set of storms. Not to leave out the Dec 2010 MN blizzard either. compared to this tranquility http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_lite_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Would a more southern solution actually make sense, just checked the NAO/AO and it looks like it is trending towards neutral thus a more southern solution makes more sense? The euro wants to phase the 2 energies and move it slower while the GFS really whisks this thing through. I don't think the GFS even shows it negatively tilted. Either way looks like WI get's nailed and Chicago get's dissected just like last weekends storm...winter north heavy rains south. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 compared to this tranquility http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_lite_loop.php Yeah not much going on outside of the Pac NW and south Florida. Really a pretty nice day here with a temp of 47º and sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Whoa tough crowd! Mistake sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 DGEX now on the two storm bandwagon. But the 2nd storm is pretty far east. Looks a bit like the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Whoa tough crowd! Mistake sorry its all good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Haha...shot down three times in a row. Still not as much as you get shot down by woman! Taking care of a new born all day...misread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Still not as much as you get good shot down by woman! Taking care of a new born all day...misread Not to sound too much like a candyass, but your baby is adorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Not to sound too much like a candyass, but your baby is adorable. Thanks...shes amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18z GFS looks like it's coming in a bit south with storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Screams ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18z GFS looks like it's coming in a bit south with storm 1. Yeah. I'm wondering if this run is going to take a step toward the Euro/GGEM with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18z GFS with the strung out POS look at 90 hours as I think Bowme put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah. I'm wondering if this run is going to take a step toward the Euro/GGEM with the second low. Check out the isobars over MS at 0z/6. Looks like storm two taking shape. edit: probably going to be well east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 almost a non event for the western lks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hurricane force wind warnings just off the shore of portland. This storm is monsterous. 968 as it hits the coast. Bring it here so I can get prepared for Alaska........roadie begins next Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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