BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 That's what I was expecting to come out.. Instead i laid a cadbury egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some strange posts today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Adjust your bookmarks accordingly. This site is scheduled to be decommissioned on April 5th 2011. Please bookmark the new Model Analyses and Guidance Web site which replaces it. Out with the old: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ In with the new: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some strange posts today... Yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 That's what I was expecting to come out.. Instead i laid a cadbury egg. BowMe's March Turd Bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 BowMe's March Turd Bomb: lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Can't wait to see how juiced the NAM is gonna be with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah... I think we've filled our 6th grade bathroom humor quota for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 BowMe's March Turd Bomb: interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I think there is more than one reason for me to wait a couple days before posting again. Coincidentally, he is on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Can't wait to see how juiced the NAM is gonna be with this thing. i'm sure it will bust out a few totally ridiculous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Can't wait to see how juiced the NAM is gonna be with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 15z sref spread predictably huge with the ETA members comprising the southern camp. Mean looks reasonable enough taking the initial low to the eastern MO, west central IL border area. Just about all are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 IWX GREATER PERIOD OF CONCERN LIES STARTING FRI NGT AND INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND A BIT MORE SE TOWARDS THE PREV ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS STILL WILL RESULT IN A INCREASINGLY LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY AS FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL DAY SATURDAY DURING MOST FAVORABLE TIME OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE AGAIN...THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO MORE THAN AN INCH AND A HALF AGAIN. SOME INDICATIONS THIS COULD OCCUR MORE OVER NW PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE JUST A BIT MORE. RIGHT NOW NOT GETTING FANCY WITH TRENDS WITH ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES LIKELY. GFS CONTINUES WITH A PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE SYSTEM WITH ALL PRECIP CUTTING OFF BY SAT NGT. ECMWF AND GEM LEAN AGAINST WITH 500 TROUGH DIGGING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THIS LOW MAY HAVE A FURTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF IT. IF THIS WERE TO COME TOGETHER...A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW COULD TAKE SHAPE FOR SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING MORE ISSUES. NO CHANGES MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC SAT NGT AND INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS SUNDAY. CHANGES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODELS HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SETUP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Can't wait to see how juiced the NAM is gonna be with this thing. So what you are saying is when the NAM pumps out 7" it might be a bit high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 So what you are saying is when the NAM pumps out 7" it might be a bit high? lol I'm sure the hi-res models will go ballistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Adjust your bookmarks accordingly. This site is scheduled to be decommissioned on April 5th 2011. Please bookmark the new Model Analyses and Guidance Web site which replaces it. Out with the old: http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ In with the new: http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller End of an era. I think that incarnation of the NCEP model page has been going since the GFS became operational in the fall of 2002. How time flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 End of an era. I think that incarnation of the NCEP model page has been going since the GFS became operational in the fall of 2002. How time flies. I could be wrong, but I think that page has been around since at least December 2000...at least for me because that's when I first found computer weather models. Of course that was back in the ETA and AVN days, and the NGM had some legitimacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How do the Euro Ensembles compare to the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I could be wrong, but I think that page has been around since at least December 2000...at least for me because that's when I first found computer weather models. Of course that was back in the ETA and AVN days, and the NGM had some legitimacy. Maybe. I remember during the Jan 31, 2002 storm I was looking at the AVN through a webpage that was a vertically divided split-screen, with a toolbar on the left side comprising maybe 1/4 of the screen, and the maps on the right side comprising 3/4. It was definitely NCEP, but maybe it was something experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 DTX THE PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH EVENTUAL PHASING OFF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. WHETHER WE END UP WITH ONE LARGE STORM...OR A SERIES OF LOWS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 12Z GFS AND MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE MAIN LOW TRACKING THROUGH OR WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY...SUGGESTING WE ARE LOOKING MOSTLY AT HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z EUROPEAN HOWEVER...INDICATING A FLATTER WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN FAVORABLE SPOT FOR ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION SNOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE OR FEEDING IN. EVEN SO...STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CARRY MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE THIS FAR OUT...SEE WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE 12Z UKMET. DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Maybe. I remember during the Jan 31, 2002 storm I was looking at the AVN through a webpage that was a vertically divided split-screen, with a toolbar on the left side comprising maybe 1/4 of the screen, and the maps on the right side comprising 3/4. It was definitely NCEP, but maybe it was something experimental. I know what you're talking about I think. That site was a bit of a cluster **** at times if I recall correctly. I'll have to give the new site a try soon, might as well get used to it. Even with better options out there today, I still use the NCEP site for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How do the Euro Ensembles compare to the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 At 144 there's a low hugging the EC. Not sure if that's the 2nd storm, or a potential 3rd one. Tough to tell with only 24 hour intervals available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z Euro ensembles look in step with the OP at 96 hours for the first low. At 120 hours they diverge, with the mean farther NE/quicker than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 NAM warm for almost everyone with the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 pretty big differences between this run of the NAM and the 12z run. The northern stream s/w that kicks out from the base of the big cyclone spinning its way off the coast of BC is much weaker this run as it comes onshore into the pac northwest and moves across the Canada/MT border and moves it east. The 12z run is much stronger with this feature and phases it into more of a longwave between it and the southern stream s/w with the one were watching in the TX PH and 84hrs on the 12z NAM. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 ECM ensembles back the GFS I don't know about that. If anything I'd say they're between the op Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 ECM ensembles back the GFS I wouldn't go that far. Seems to be more of an intermediate position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I wouldn't go that far. Seems to be more of an intermediate position. Great minds think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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