snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 dont forget the euro has a mid-range warm bias. i dont think thats just hearsay either, ive seen it do it plenty of times. but of course at this range, its all just pictures i'm really pleased to see the euro/GEM go back to the multi-wave scenario with a slow moving bz + final developed low riding the front.....thats some good stuff right there Yeah, even if ended up being all rain...3.53" is a lot of juice. Would make for quite the prolonged, interesting storm. And thanks for filling me in about the warm bias. I thought I had heard something like that before but I wasn't sure. Can get accumulating snow if it's falling hard enough with a sfc temp around 1c, but once you get into the 1.5-2c range it's not happening, especially during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Here you were thinking only 50", hell that'd put LAF right at 60".. We'd be approaching 65" if this run panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Stoney Creek area/Washington TWP is high up. You ever drive on 26Mile/Shelby Rd? Yea and it doesn't seem much higher than here along 21 mile in southern macomb township. I drive to oakland a lot and its definately higher up over there. Not only do you get more snow but we will get your flooding rain running off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Guys dont make me beg for asking if this run hits STL. It has to be 2-4 at least looking at H7/H8 and the SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah, even if ended up being all rain...3.53" is a lot of juice. Would make for quite the prolonged, interesting storm. And thanks for filling me in about the warm bias. I thought I had heard something like that before but I wasn't sure. Can get accumulating snow if it's falling hard enough with a sfc temp around 1c, but once you get into the 1.5-2c range it's not happening, especially during the day. agree on the temp. even with a mixed precip event, would be fun to watch across this entire forum. just dont give me the GFS cuz thats a yawn-fest. tons of potential here, hopefully not to be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Here you were thinking only 50", hell that'd put LAF right at 60".. #2 all time would be secure if the Euro panned out. Would be quite a spectacle. Might as well cherish this run because it's probably only downhill from here. Safe to say it would be in my top 5 storms of all time. 0.5% chance of happening though as the Euro indicates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 120 ptype on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Of precip? If so, yikes, this thing is wide-ranging. This would be what you would call a spread the wealth event if it pans out this way. Weak elongated low that's longer than the turd i just squeezed out at hr 72 on the euro... We need what the GFS or Euro showed last night or this is a nothing to see up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 #2 all time would be secure if the Euro panned out. Safe to say it would be in my top 5 storms of all time. 0.5% chance of happening though as the Euro indicates... Well, it'll be interesting to see what the next few model runs show.. Especially the 00z EURO.. I would say anything is possible this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Guys dont make me beg for asking if this run hits STL. It has to be 2-4 at least looking at H7/H8 and the SLP track. sounds about right.. 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Guys dont make me beg for asking if this run hits STL. It has to be 2-4 at least looking at H7/H8 and the SLP track. 2-4", kinda warm initially with the second wave, so that number could be higher if it would cool faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Guys dont make me beg for asking if this run hits STL. It has to be 2-4 at least looking at H7/H8 and the SLP track. STL the interesting portion: SUN 00Z 06-MAR 2.7 -0.7 1013 83 87 0.03 552 541 SUN 06Z 06-MAR 0.6 -5.8 1011 81 98 0.10 546 537 SUN 12Z 06-MAR -1.9 -7.6 1013 72 98 0.20 542 531 SUN 18Z 06-MAR 2.2 -5.2 1017 48 55 0.06 543 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 So much depends on that first wave and the strength of it. The weaker the better. Looks like it's inevitable that areas that will see the most snow will have to deal with a drenching first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 JMA is a crusher...resembles the Euro/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well, it'll be interesting to see what the next few model runs show.. Especially the 00z EURO.. I would say anything is possible this winter.. Yeah I guess anything is possible. No matter, a crap load of precip is headed our way. In what form and quantities TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah I guess anything is possible. No matter, a crap load of precip is headed our way. In what form and quantities TBD. This may be the year to build the ark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Weak elongated low that's longer than the turd i just squeezed out at hr 72 on the euro... We need what the GFS or Euro showed last night or this is a nothing to see up here. BowMe, you have quite a talent of painting a picture with words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 JMA is a crusher...resembles the Euro/GGEM My fav frame: Now we just need the models to stay put for 5 days. Easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 This may be the year to build the ark.. For real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 This may be the year to build the ark.. It took Noah about 100 years to build the ark, I think you are a little behind schedule if you haven't started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 BowMe, you have quite a talent of painting a picture with words. Its true I had to crap so bad and I couldn't hold it no longer during the 12z euro so I ran to the john to pinch one off real quick and all that pops out after pushing like I'm having a baby is a dam half a twinkie. That pos elongated low was longer than it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Build a treehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 JMA is a crusher...resembles the Euro/GGEM Pretty crazy to say the least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It took Noah about 100 years to build the ark, I think you are a little behind schedule if you haven't started yet. I've got some coleman rafts in the meantime.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 nice kokomo hole over me on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Models love to flip on John Dee after he puts the morning forecast out. By later Friday, rains will be spreading across most of MO, IL, IN, OH, southeast WI and southern lower MI. A very narrow band of snow could fall just to the north of the rain area later Friday and into early Saturday and then by later Saturday into Saturday night, there are indications that that thin area of light snow will expand a bit and intensify and as much as 4-8" of snow could fall in eastern IA, NW IL, southern WI and central lower MI, although that snow idea is a little low on confidence right now. Temps for most of the next 4 days will run close to average, with the freeze line generally hovering around I-80, the exceptions will be today, when temps in much of the region will find their way above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Its true I had to crap so bad and I couldn't hold it no longer during the 12z euro so I ran to the john to pinch one off real quick and all that pops out after pushing like I'm having a baby is a dam half a twinkie. That pos elongated low was longer than it. Well there goes eating the rest of my lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 120 ptype on the GGEM GEM is much much warmer than the euro, even though they have a somewhat similar idea. looks like the GEM holds onto the initial wave longer and it blows the cold out further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well there goes eating the rest of my lunch. You didn't really want that twinkie anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well there goes eating the rest of my lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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