snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean at 120 hours. Pretty broad SLP from the look of this map. Also the Euro ENS predicted NAO value, though it's not the last couple needed or had a -NAO. I know that much rain could be catastrophic for you, so it's tough to look for the silver lining, but I noticed that the models (especially GFS/GEFS) are trending colder with that emerging D7-8 storm. A deep/wrapped up solution with the initial storm could provide us with the necessary March blocking for some winter weather thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Does anyone have a QPF map from the 0z Euro? Whenever I'm feeling down or negative, I want to be able to look at that fantasy monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Plain NAM extrap is pointless. That's what the DGEX is, essentially, and it has a very similar track to last nights GFS and EURO. Not that I'd throw much stock into it by itself, but it helps to have the EC along for the ride I guess. Anyways, I still maintain that we're getting a little too worked up about it, given the spread still evident in the ensemble products. Lots of chaos to iron out. There's going to be a decent sized snow band, and probably a pretty decent sized mixing zone as well. If the Euro is still here honking about it in 24-36 hours with those ridiculous QPF numbers, then I'll start paying attention to its track. Even then... remember that the GFS does better in the extreme cases with regards to QPF in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 I know that much rain could be catastrophic for you, so it's tought to look for the silver lining, but I noticed that the models (especially GFS/GEFS) are trending colder with that emerging D7-8 storm. A deep/wrapped up solution with the initial storm could provide us with the necessary March blocking for some winter weather thereafter. I haven't looked ahead to anything right now...but I suppose you could be right about a possible storm #2 and it's future destination. The increased activity is nice, but the ill effects increase as well. Going to be interesting to watch it all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The NAM may be a little too amped but with most ensemble means going NW and wide open gulf flow at 850 pumping up the baroclinic zone, i think a pretty far NW solution is the way to go at this point. I think the opposite. Per grr, there is alot of stuff up north to keep this from cutting too much. The last storm came through with a strongly positive nao and it was suppressed a bit. It was mostly rain as there was no block to hold the cold in but there were confluences to the north. Thats where i get a bit confused. Even with no nao to block the cold, wouldnt the confluence to the north help keep some cold air south, thus there should have been more snow with the last system? Or maybe it was too neutral/positively tilted and weaker thus no real cold sector. That being said this system looks to be a bit stronger and will likely go a little more NW than the last one but colder air will be in place because of the nao. Not sure if it's east or west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I haven't looked ahead to anything right now...but I suppose you could be right about a possible storm #2 and it's future destination. The increased activity is nice, but the ill effects increase as well. Going to be interesting to watch it all unfold. amen to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I must say I like being in the middle of the possible solutions. Some signs point to this not cutting so much and putting Michigan in the best snow zone, but the GFS and a few other models put Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota in the best zone. We're right in the middle. Also, the potential Lafayette luck is another good sign. That said, I really should take a day or two off from these fantasy storm projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 For once I think henry may be somewhat right this time... "The NAO is going neutral to negative while the PNA is predicted to go slightly positive to neutral. That should lead to more ridging along the West coast and a deeper trough in the East. Add in the NAO, and one has to look to the East Coast for secondary development which has major implications to the Northeast flood threat. As for snow, we may see two areas of snow. One that goes across the western Great Lakes and a second area that develops in the Appalachians late in the weekend." Last sentence says FU SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Why are you guys getting worked up over a threat 90+ hours out? Anything can happen right now, just watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Lie. And I don't even have to finish reading that sentence. Maybe an exaggeration, but then again you were making a few "exaggerations" yourself during that late December hiatus. In any event, the GFS is coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Maybe an exaggeration, but then again you were making a few "exaggerations" yourself during that late December hiatus. In any event, the GFS is coming out now. lol. yup. Actually you don't have to go back that far. I said I was ready for spring 5 days ago and now I'm trying to wish the weekend storm SE. Exaggerations and contradictions abound with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Why are you guys getting worked up over a threat 90+ hours out? Anything can happen right now, just watch the trends. I think the higher magnitude the event, the more worked up people get 90+ hours out. Since this system appears to have so much moisture to work with, people are getting more excited than usual. Someone in the Midwest should see an awful lot of rain in the next week, and there will likely be areas that see an awful lot of snow. Unfortunately, the most important question, where, is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 For once I think henry may be somewhat right this time... "The NAO is going neutral to negative while the PNA is predicted to go slightly positive to neutral. That should lead to more ridging along the West coast and a deeper trough in the East. Add in the NAO, and one has to look to the East Coast for secondary development which has major implications to the Northeast flood threat. As for snow, we may see two areas of snow. One that goes across the western Great Lakes and a second area that develops in the Appalachians late in the weekend." Last sentence says FU SE MI. It's Henry M, so it's more like congrats SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 So, who in the Midwest in most due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 This thread is going down the crapper fast. However I do think he may have been joking though. Yes, it was a joke. But the coincidence of something similar happening twice would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Looks like a 1008 low in C. IL on the GFS at hr 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 So, who in the Midwest in most due? I would like to personally see NE Iowa-MKE-Eastern UP line to get a good hit, you guys are well overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 No one is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I would like to personally see NE Iowa-MKE-Eastern UP line to get a good hit, you guys are well overdue. I agree, but I'm not expecting people to feel sorry for us, as we're not due so much as it would be nice for us to hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 System phases in the MS valley. Lead wave Harry wants us to keep an eye on is too flat and progessive to create any kind of confluence. Moreover, the Hudson Bay vortex which GRR mentioned as a potential suppressing agent looks somewhat farther north than with last Friday's storm. Good news is that the GFS keeps the rain train moving. No closed low at H5 like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 not too worried at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Of any of the posters here, I think I'm the most due for a big storm (last 6"+ storm Jan 16-17, 2009). But I'm not from the MW so maybe I don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GFS seems too weak/positve/neutral tilted. Looks like better sampling will occur thurs/fri. Flint/Saginaw towards Mt pleasant, west towards chicago and milwaukee look to be in the best spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Of any of the posters here, I think I'm the most due for a big storm (last 6"+ storm Jan 16-17, 2009). But I'm not from the MW so maybe I don't count. that was around my last 6+ one as well. I just want to see a blanket of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I agree, but I'm not expecting people to feel sorry for us, as we're not due so much as it would be nice for us to hit the jackpot. We hit the jackpot with the Groundhog Blizzard! So, I don't expect pity from anyone either...lol. But it's always nice to get more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Of any of the posters here, I think I'm the most due for a big storm (last 6"+ storm Jan 16-17, 2009). But I'm not from the MW so maybe I don't count. Yes, you too. But I'm still amazed that SSM is seeing another well below average season (They've only reached half of their seaosnal average snowfall AS OF TODAY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 If anyone is due, I think it's the Minnesota, W. Iowa posters. I remember them getting hit once the past 1-2 months. I think we all had our fair share this winter though. Maybe the LAF crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Of any of the posters here, I think I'm the most due for a big storm (last 6"+ storm Jan 16-17, 2009). But I'm not from the MW so maybe I don't count. You count. Sorry, you are correct. That kind of 6 inch storm drought makes it unanimous. Maybe there's a way we can both get a foot plus with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 that was around my last 6+ one as well. I just want to see a blanket of wet snow But relative to my climo, my futility feat is more impressive. Statistically, I should have seen 3.4 six inchers since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GFS seems too weak/positve/neutral tilted. Looks like better sampling will occur thurs/fri. Flint/Saginaw towards Mt pleasant, west towards chicago and milwaukee look to be in the best spot. Madison to Alpena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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