Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GGEM 60 straight hours of precip in SE MI. Ridiculous. Not likely to verify but still, never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 does the euro have snow for STL??? I have only glanced at the gem and gfs and the gem looks really good. Probably at least 2", if not more. Rain to snow scenario though obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Wonder how the Euro ens. looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I likey grand rapids afd.. Reminds me like I said last night of last weekend and the past lame event up here. I'll remain skeptical. WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM THIS COMING WEEKEND HAS THE SAME PROBLEM THE ONE THIS PAST WEEKEND HAD. THAT IS THERE IS A LARGE BLOCKING UPPER LOW STALLED OVER HUDSON BAY CREATING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT WAS THEN OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IT WILL BE SIMILARLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS EVEN A SIMILAR SOUTHERN STREAM JET CORE COMES IN FRONT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF TO PHASE THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM JET ON SATURDAY. ALSO...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THIS ONE WILL HAVE GOOD GULF INFLOW AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING PWAT VALUES OVER 250% OF NORMAL (NEAR 0.9 INCHES TO NEAR I-94) INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WE EVEN HAVE AN 80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN CWA SAT AFTERNOON WITH 850 DEW POINTS NEAR 5C. SEEMS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ME. SO HERE IS MY QUESTION... IF THIS PAST SYSTEM WENT SOUTH OF MICHIGAN DUE TO THE BLOCKING FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WOULD NOT THIS ONE DO THE SAME THING? ACTUALLY THERE IS LITTLE ARGUMENT ABOUT THAT BUT WHERE THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE IS THE ECWMF ON THE 01/00Z RUN HAS AN ALMOST NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN THE STORM BY SATURDAY. CURIOUSLY THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN BETTER THEN THE ECMWF RECENTLY. THE GFS HAS HAD A FLATTER WAVE SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LOWER MICHIGAN. SO I INCREASED POP TO LIKELY SATURDAY. LIKE THIS PAST SUNDAY THE QUESTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WOULD AGAIN BE IN PLAY WITH THIS SYSTEM (NOT IN THE GRIDS JUST YET). THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN / SNOW LINE SHOULD NEAR OR SOUTH OF ROUTE 10 THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW / RAIN EVENT BUT LIKE THIS PAST WEEKEND... THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW MUCH WILL THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DIVERT THE FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN? CLEARLY THIS IS OUR NEXT BIG FEATURE TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 6z GFS says congrats southeast minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 looks like i missed some action last night. I'd be a lot more comfortable 100 miles northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I want but it is looking like I am going to get Would be some epic big time flooding with the euro. wow Harry is screwed with an ice storm I am getting the bullseye of all snow. I would say I like my chances this far out with not being in the bullseye, but there really is nothing to prevent this from going west of michigan. Still plenty of time and 2-3 days before its on land. Also the stronger the first one the better chance at snow further south and east. Or is that not as likley in march. It is possible any time of the year. More a matter of how much cold can this thing draw in. Looks like the NAO currently is strongly positive and its slowly heading back down to neutral. Not sure where its at exactly when this storm hits but maybe that will help push it a little futher east. Something to be watched for sure. Remember when NAO/AO is heading down so does the storm track and thus south/se and when the AO/NA is rising it goes the other way. You still will get off runs though and thus see the 06z GFS. Wonder how the Euro ens. looks. A bit to the se of the euro but thats to be expected. 6z GFS says congrats southeast minnesota. I would like a little of whatever it is the GFS is smoking. I remember this same model doing this with the last system and one before that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yes it was. Seems as though it has been north and west of other guidance at this range a lot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I have not been paying too much attention to this event but was forced to after seeing the 0z Euro. Anyways after looking around the different guidance on the way into the office this morning i think a solution 100-200 miles west of the 0z Euro makes most the most sense, especially if the trough does take on that neg tilt. It's also hard not to place some weight on climo now that we're into March, which i know isn't an automatic game over, but a ripping gulf flow and march climo throws up warning flags. As for model performance, they've each had their ups and downs this year, sometimes changing rapidly at this range and in a few instances locking in, so i'll just watch the means/trends and hope for the best there. The main take away seems to be the excellent signal for a major and more importantly wet system with a ridiculous spring-like gulf connection. If the trough can start neut/pos the snow band will probably pretty thin but keep those further east in play, but if it wraps up neg, there could be a ridic defo band....but the potential for a hard left turn will be high. just for fun long range probs for chicago miss to the south/east <.50" rain/snow: 4% heavy rain/brief changeover w/little accums: 75% heavy rain to advisory accums: 15% heavy snow: 5% heavy snow >10": 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 csnavywx probably has the odds right, but how funny/ironic would it be if ORD and MKE got blasted with another huge snowstorm...with both storm threads started by LAF posters. I say we ban LAF poters from posting storm threads. :gunbandana: Everytime you guys do we get screwed (in the relative sense). I would quit tracking weather if Chicago got ANOTHER epic snowstorm in the same season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 goknights- You and me get 12+ inches on the GFS :) I'll believe it when i see it.... Be a warm rain for MKE. I'm sticking with the EURO until it shows different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sand Bags anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I say we ban LAF poters from posting storm threads. :gunbandana: Everytime you guys do we get screwed (in the relative sense). I would quit tracking weather if Chicago got ANOTHER epic snowstorm in the same season. Don't worry this one is mine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sand Bags anyone? Dont believe that we will see so much rain. You know that systems tend to look so impressive days out, as we approach slowly the qpf cuts down in half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z MAM is looking much like the 6z GFS so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z MAM is looking much like the 6z GFS so far! It would probably be even northwest of that. Either way the NAM has been over amped on just about every recent storm in this range. I think the large shifts NW in the GFS mean are more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 I say we ban LAF poters from posting storm threads. :gunbandana: Everytime you guys do we get screwed (in the relative sense). I would quit tracking weather if Chicago got ANOTHER epic snowstorm in the same season. Well certainly don't hold back your feelings on the matter. Of course the whole "whoever starts the storm thread is either a jinx or good luck" thing is quite played out. It's going to be whatever it wants it to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I can not see how the nam would end up that far NW. the 300mb jet is somewhat weak and out of the west, or even tilts south some. the H5 vort is digging with more energy dumping in the SE ridge is not very strong...and there is some suppression of heights north of the lakes. the slp placement on the nam is a bit deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well certainly don't hold back your feelings on the matter. Of course the whole "whoever starts the storm thread is either a jinx or good luck" thing is quite played out. It's going to be whatever it wants it to be... This thread is going down the crapper fast. However I do think he may have been joking though. Amazing how we have to go through the same crap with every storm. Same folks constantly screaming it is gonna go nw and have the other group with the se crap as well. Would be another if just once they would post something with decent reasoning behind it. Always some lame ass reasoning behind it to. Oh it is early March, or oh every storm does this or that. Sorry but that is not decent reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I can not see how the nam would end up that far NW. the 300mb jet is somewhat weak and out of the west, or even tilts south some. the H5 vort is digging with more energy dumping in the SE ridge is not very strong...and there is some suppression of heights north of the lakes. the slp placement on the nam is a bit deceiving. The NAM may be a little too amped but with most ensemble means going NW and wide open gulf flow at 850 pumping up the baroclinic zone, i think a pretty far NW solution is the way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I can not see how the nam would end up that far NW. the 300mb jet is somewhat weak and out of the west, or even tilts south some. the H5 vort is digging with more energy dumping in the SE ridge is not very strong...and there is some suppression of heights north of the lakes. the slp placement on the nam is a bit deceiving. My hunch is that if the NAM went out farther it would close off the system rather quickly. Where it would go is another issue. And if it did not close off you can bet that low would still end up farther nw of the 06z GFS. It is the NAM though and at 84hrs so meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 My hunch is that if the NAM went out farther it would close off the system rather quickly. Where it would go is another issue. And if it did not close off you can bet that low would still end up farther nw of the 06z GFS. It is the NAM though and at 84hrs so meh.. looking at the SREF spread it's hard to place any weight on a single 84hr NAM solution now. I'm going to watch the shifts in the GFS/euro/GGEM ensemble mean and base my hunches off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 This thread is going down the crapper fast. However I do think he may have been joking though. Amazing how we have to go through the same crap with every storm. Same folks constantly screaming it is gonna go nw and have the other group with the se crap as well. Would be another if just once they would post something with decent reasoning behind it. Always some lame ass reasoning behind it to. Oh it is early March, or oh every storm does this or that. Sorry but that is not decent reasoning. I hope he was joking, but I'm not sure anymore. And yes, the same old stuff is regurgitated with every storm. Of course as we know, all storms don't act the same way...despite some that think they'll all go NW, or whatever. It gets old, but I guess it is what it is. Anyways, back to the storm topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 looking at the SREF spread it's hard to place any weight on a single 84hr NAM solution now. I'm going to watch the shifts in the GFS/euro/GGEM ensemble mean and base my hunches off that. Good way to do it. Keep a eye on the front runner and the AO/NAO trends as well. I know some hate the idea of it but it has done well with me. More of a matter of figuring out temps/WAA if you do happen to be north of the low track. See the last event which took a great track for us but was still too warm for any meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 looking at the SREF spread it's hard to place any weight on a single 84hr NAM solution now. I'm going to watch the shifts in the GFS/euro/GGEM ensemble mean and base my hunches off that. Serious question, but what value do the SREF's have in the 72+ hour time range? Let alone looking at the NAM outside of 60+ hours. I've been less than impressed with both of their performances lately. Of course maybe it's just me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Serious question, but what value do the SREF's have in the 72+ hour time range? Let alone looking at the NAM outside of 60+ hours. I've been less than impressed with both of their performances lately. Of course maybe it's just me... little which was kind of the point, they're all over the map. If there was an odd case of agrement, it would be another thing. I do like watching the mean though to see which solutions fail and which hang around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I say we ban LAF poters from posting storm threads. :gunbandana: Everytime you guys do we get screwed (in the relative sense). I would quit tracking weather if Chicago got ANOTHER epic snowstorm in the same season. Lie. And I don't even have to finish reading that sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean at 120 hours. Pretty broad SLP from the look of this map. Also the Euro ENS predicted NAO value, though it's not the last couple needed or had a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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