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March 5-8 storm discussion


OKpowdah

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haha I just weenied you cause the euro just showed 2 snowstorms over the next 2 weeks.

2 weeks away aka Fantasy land. speaking from MBY PVD metro doesn't get a lot of good snows after march 15th, sure there are the select few that we all remember aka april fools storm etc. This usualy would be the time for NNE/CNE/Berks to shine.

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Lean colder and snowier seems to be the theme

SUN INTO MON...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFSAND ECMWF IN THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROMTHE WEST. GFS PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON NORTHERN STREAM AND IS MOREPROGRESSIVE WITH QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUN WITH FROPA THEN DRY MON.ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT QPFEVENT SUN INTO MON. WE LEANED TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF WHICH HASSUPPORT OF UKMET BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL. ECMWF WOULDBRING EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN INTO MON WITH ONESHOT OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUN...THEN HEAVIER PERIOD OF PRECIP SUNNIGHT INTO MON WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BY MON. .

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Lean colder and snowier seems to be the theme

SUN INTO MON...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFSAND ECMWF IN THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROMTHE WEST. GFS PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON NORTHERN STREAM AND IS MOREPROGRESSIVE WITH QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUN WITH FROPA THEN DRY MON.ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT QPFEVENT SUN INTO MON. WE LEANED TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF WHICH HASSUPPORT OF UKMET BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL. ECMWF WOULDBRING EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN INTO MON WITH ONESHOT OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUN...THEN HEAVIER PERIOD OF PRECIP SUNNIGHT INTO MON WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR BY MON. .

Shocked that you of all posters would lean colder/ snowier

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I hope this trends to snow, but it has some work to do.

Most tv news casts have 50F for this weekend, so I'm hoping it ends up being a 33F wet snow 12+ bomb, so that spring lovers can get all their hopes up only to be shutdown. (or at least rain then snow like the euro shows, all snow is unrealistic. Its either 100% rain or a rain/snow combo)

:banned::thumbsup:

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I think best chance for snow in this will have to be an anafrontal wave...there could be some ice issues again near the onset.

The whole evolution looks weird though and it might be tough on the models until we get a bit closer. Its trying to shoot a low pressure between two monster highs....one that tries to hold on to our northeast at like 1045mb and then a brutal arctic high to the NW.

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I think best chance for snow in this will have to be an anafrontal wave...there could be some ice issues again near the onset.

The whole evolution looks weird though and it might be tough on the models until we get a bit closer. Its trying to shoot a low pressure between two monster highs....one that tries to hold on to our northeast at like 1045mb and then a brutal arctic high to the NW.

If you had to lean in one direction...would you lean towards a colder either ice/cold rain snowier solution..or would you lean more warm rain solution?

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Well yeah but your area always hits 50 in these cutters or triple pointers...I hit 40.9...while mild..I don't consider that a torch

Still hanging to 38.5 here, but once in a while, the wind feels warmer. Skies above only have mid level clouds so cold is probably very shallow...though MQE down to 42 now.

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Today torched pretty good imo

50F for Feb 28th is damn warm.

Your point and click is far from the sustained below normal and cold we had Dec - early Feb. It looks like - early Spring.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind between 9 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind between 9 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 13. Northwest wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 26.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Your point and click is far from the sustained below normal and cold we had Dec - early Feb. It looks like - early Spring.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind between 9 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind between 9 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 13. Northwest wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 26.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

We get it its been warmer then January. His point and click avg high is 41. Guess what he averages in early March is? 43!! He's forecast to be below normal this week, so that's not a torch lol. lmaosmiley.gif

BOS is -1.1 for the month. Yes it hasn't been crazy below normal but nothing crazy warm either.

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I am just wondering. I like to get a gage on how everyone is thinking..it helps me formulate a forecast in my own mind.

For instance..Phil favors flooding rains. and 50's..Tip seems to be favoring an 1888 solution..so I have to factor those 2 extremes in

It's a complicated pattern when you look at everything. You have a southern cutoff that could keep us mild with heavy rain and then move away with perhaps a change to snow in NNE, or you have the euro that wants to flip everyone to snow. The Canadian ensembles aren't far off from the euro with it perhaps ending as something more wintry.

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We get it its been warmer then January. His point and click avg high is 41. Guess what he averages in early March is? 43!! He's forecast to be below normal this week, so that's not a torch lol. lmaosmiley.gif

BOS is -1.1 for the month. Yes it hasn't been crazy below normal but nothing crazy warm either.

Month 4 of below normal temps for the hub. The elephant has been silenced.

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It's a complicated pattern when you look at everything. You have a southern cutoff that could keep us mild with heavy rain and then move away with perhaps a change to snow in NNE, or you have the euro that wants to flip everyone to snow. The Canadian ensembles aren't far off from the euro with it perhaps ending as something more wintry.

Translation..Your're leaning colder but urging extreme caution

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Watching Ryans news channel, man still tons of snow left in West Hartford and they are only 36 . This winter has to be killing him. I am getting interested in scooter saying the Ens are interesting, why IDK

I don't know how much we have on the ground in wooded or shaded areas... too hard to tell where I live.

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