ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Some of the scenarios on the ensembles are close to a massive ice storm in the interior with wave #2....it doesn't cool off the mid-levels in time for big snow but the sfc cools ahead of it and it produces an ice storm. The 06z DGEX is a Dec '08-esque ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Some of the scenarios on the ensembles are close to a massive ice storm in the interior with wave #2....it doesn't cool off the mid-levels in time for big snow but the sfc cools ahead of it and it produces an ice storm. The 06z DGEX is a Dec '08-esque ice storm. That's like the 06z GFS on roids with the second wave...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This is the time of year for the die hard winter wx lover now. We aren't gonna gain base (generally) anymore, but if you can get rain to snow events etc. it is still fun. Gotta savor every bit of winter wx knowing that after March we enter the desert for about seven months. It 4F when I went to bed a midnight and it says 34 now..... obviously a major spike ahead of the front. Yeah there still could be a flip to snow, even the euro has that. The question is how much moisture is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 6Z gfs at least brings cold air into it..... I think the 6Z gfs went east generally - now having wave #1 passing east of here, but still 90% rain so no real gain. Then #2 is out to sea. That's like the 06z GFS on roids with the second wave...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That's like the 06z GFS on roids with the second wave...lol. The gfs ensembles from 12z yesterday had a stronger 2nd wave/system forming (to a lesser extent 00z). Fair chance of it shaking out that way, IMO. HPC on board somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I'm starting to feel the chance of a big snow if this shakes out right. Yesterday's GFS had over 2.2" of QPF as snow at BTV... this morning's 6z GFS has only 1.3" QPF as snow now. Still good signal for a maple mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This is the time of year for the die hard winter wx lover now. We aren't gonna gain base (generally) anymore, but if you can get rain to snow events etc. it is still fun. Gotta savor every bit of winter wx knowing that after March we enter the desert for about seven months. Agree with all but the snowpack comment, which varies as one moves farther into NNE. Winter's deepest snow IMBY has come in March, in half of my 12 years here, and I'm only 1" from this winter's max to date. Admittedly, only 3 times has the peak come after 3/10. In Ft. Kent the max came in March about 80% of the years, and only the drift pattern prevented it from being in April 1982. (Began that 17" blizzard with 28" at the stake, finished with 27" and a 6" drift 10' away. Winter topped at 38" that year.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS shows the ice potential in the interior...the low level cold will filter in easier than the ML Cold. It will be interesting to see if this potential begin to ramp up on other guidance as we get closer. Hopefully everything trends colder and its just snow for the 2nd wave. But ice is a legit possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS shows the ice potential in the interior...the low level cold will filter in easier than the ML Cold. It will be interesting to see if this potential begin to ramp up on other guidance as we get closer. Hopefully everything trends colder and its just snow for the 2nd wave. But ice is a legit possibility. Funny that some think an ice storm can't happen in March considering the heavy icing we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Funny that some think an ice storm can't happen in March considering the heavy icing we just had. Well there;s a big difference between getting some ice and a damaging ice storm. Sure there can be ice in March...but chances of an all out icestorm are less than they would be in Dec or jan..though there have been a few decent winds over the past 100 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Funny that some think an ice storm can't happen in March considering the heavy icing we just had. With that big high pushing that cold south, it's a good possibility for someone, especially if surface temps are very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Funny that some think an ice storm can't happen in March considering the heavy icing we just had. Early March ice storms are not that uncommon...we had a pretty good one on March 2, 2007. February 28-Mar 1, 1995 was a really bad one that got even downtown BOS with big icing. Ray's biggest ice storm he remembers was in March 1990. We had an ice event near the equinox in 1991 too. I think it was Mar 22-23, 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 With that big high pushing that cold south, it's a good possibility for someone, especially if surface temps are very cold. Until some other modelling besides the goof shows this scenario..it's hard to give it much credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Until some other modelling besides the goof shows this scenario..it's hard to give it much credence It's just one possibility among other things, but we are 5 days out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Until some other modelling besides the goof shows this scenario..it's hard to give it much credence Euro last night essentially showed it...maybe it was a tad colder so more sleet and snow was in the 2nd wave, but its set up was not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's just one possibility among other things, but we are 5 days out still. I hope it happens..it would quiet down the few enthusiasts on here who are hoping for flooding and home damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro last night essentially showed it...maybe it was a tad colder so more sleet and snow was in the 2nd wave, but its set up was not far off. Last nite's Euro was snow and ice for SNE? I thought it looked more like rain ending as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Last nite's Euro was snow and ice for SNE? I thought it looked more like rain ending as snow Rain to ice to snow...all models have rain initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Nothing is off the table with this next complex storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The new CMC has the initial wave passing over NYC and then it takes whats leftover and quickly exits stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I hope it happens..it would quiet down the few enthusiasts on here who are hoping for flooding and home damage It's probably going to have a wintry end for someone in New England, but could very well have a ton of rain preceding it. Someone is getting a ton of water I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Rain to ice to snow...all models have rain initially. Ryan would be really upset if the colder solutions pan out. he's anxious to get out and enjoy the mud..and kick off that enjoyable season when you can enjoy all kind of outdoor activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It would be a huge slap in the face to the GFS if QPF averaged less than 2" considering what yesterdays runs were spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's probably going to have a wintry end for someone in New England, but could very well have a ton of rain preceding it. Someone is getting a ton of water I think. It looks to me like much of the flooding rains will fall to our west. Maybe the OV into upstate NY get most of it. That would upset a few of the flood enthusiasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It would be a huge slap in the face to the GFS if QPF averaged less than 2" considering what yesterdays runs were spitting out. Ehh ... wouldn't be the first time the GFS has gotten embarrassed. I think it's grown accustomed to the shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It would be a huge slap in the face to the GFS if QPF averaged less than 2" considering what yesterdays runs were spitting out. I wouldn't consider it a slap. I don't take QPF all that serious from 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I wouldn't consider it a slap. I don't take QPF all that serious from 4+ days out. The hell with the qpf, I want to see where the low is at H5 and H8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It looks to me like much of the flooding rains will fall to our west. Maybe the OV into upstate NY get most of it. That would upset a few of the flood enthusiasts Hvy hvy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It would be a huge slap in the face to the GFS if QPF averaged less than 2" considering what yesterdays runs were spitting out. its qpf so cant take too seriously.. but there has been plenty of face slapping of the euro/backpatting of the GFS for this event in the central forum, where the euro was predicting qpf outputs in the 4-6 inch range in spots. some of those same places now look to get maybe 1, much more in line with the GFS had there. once again, its all about perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 EC looks like it's late as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.