Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,612
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 429
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

That's a gorgeous H5 map going into December 8th. The dec 5th clipper bombs and sets up our strong greenland block / 50-50 low couplet. Nice confluence across sern Canada, just the right amount of ridging in the SE US, southern stream energy gathering in the Plains via the next short wave. Man, I just want to hold that image for the next 8 days. Expect it to be lost and reappear on each run, but it's a definite sign of what can occur in this pattern.

Very sexy look here. Almost reminds me of last winter.

gfs_500_174s.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nikolai

Nikolai

Posted
Posted

Verbatim no...block is not as strong and its further north so it will allow the storm to come further up the coast....Early december storm like this would prob give some problems to those that really cashed in on feb 5th 2010

lol.

The DC area does no worse than the NYC area during the early part of the winter season. Having a storm in "early December" does not make a difference between DC and NYC, the track of the storm is what matters. As depicted, DC gets crushed while NYC gets merely 6-8" of snow, a "problem" I'd be glad to deal with.

The models are beginning to converge, and I think this is a very legitimate threat. The 00z runs tomorrow night should be very fun as the storm should be coming into view before the GFS truncates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

is it a must to see the euro tonight? for the dec 5th event or does it not hold as much merit as later on in the week?

I'm staying up.:sun:

Yes, it does. Would that be a rain at the start to snow storm? 0c 2m temp line is close.

End of the run warms up a bit, but there's still cold air in Canada.

All snow. This looks like a cold storm.

Actually Tim, what made Feb 5 2010 surpressed was due to the Polar Vortex sitting north of Maine.

And December 20th 2009, was a heck of a storm for DC-PHL area (just not as big as Feb 5, of course)

and I am SURE all of us would take that.

If this storm would occur as modeled, this would be colder than both of those storms.:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yes, it does. Would that be a rain at the start to snow storm? 0c 2m temp line is close.

End of the run warms up a bit, but there's still cold air in Canada.

at hr 216, the maps i have access to show 925mb temp at -4 for philly, there could be a bl issue but i doubt it with a surface temp at frz. Now between 216 and 228 it could warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

lol.

The DC area does no worse than the NYC area during the early part of the winter season. Having a storm in "early December" does not make a difference between DC and NYC, the track of the storm is what matters. As depicted, DC gets crushed while NYC gets merely 6-8" of snow, a "problem" I'd be glad to deal with.

The models are beginning to converge, and I think this is a very legitimate threat. The 00z runs tomorrow night should be very fun as the storm should be coming into view before the GFS truncates.

Where did i say DC? The poster was from cape may. and also referring to the delmarva....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

is it a must to see the euro tonight? for the dec 5th event or does it not hold as much merit as later on in the week?

Im still tracking it but the Dec 6 - 8th threat is looking more interesting. Will see what the GGEM has. Overall blocking appears ready to do its dirty work in an otherwise La NIna dominated winter and bring some real cold and snow potential this December,

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chris L

Chris L

Posted
Posted

That's a gorgeous H5 map going into December 8th. The dec 5th clipper bombs and sets up our strong greenland block / 50-50 low couplet. Nice confluence across sern Canada, just the right amount of ridging in the SE US, southern stream energy gathering in the Plains via the next short wave. Man, I just want to hold that image for the next 8 days. Expect it to be lost and reappear on each run, but it's a definite sign of what can occur in this pattern.

Very sexy look here. Almost reminds me of last winter.

gfs_500_174s.gif

That is a BEAUTIFUL map for a Kocin storm, yes it is.... just get the vortmax to set up right, we will get it..... Amplificaiton will happen given the bit of split flow..

And that block is absolutely beautiful, textbook indeed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Im still tracking it but the Dec 6 - 8th threat is looking for interesting. Will see what the GGEM has. Overall blocking appears ready to do its dirty work in an otherwise La NIna dominated winter and bring some real cold and snow potential this December,

do you have the link to the post 144 hr black n white charts for the ggem? the one i use comes out around the euro that shows the precip for that timeframe to

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

PV situated over western hudson bay, good position for a mid atlantic/coastal storm. Usually when you see the PV over eastern hudson's bay, there's a good chance the event will be suppressed. But taken verbatim, yeah, this is about as good as it gets. Nice ridge axis poking up in the intermountain West, 50-50 and block downstream. At this point I'm more worried about a miss to the south than a Lakes cutter. The chances of the latter occurring are virtually nil w/ a strong neg nao/ao.

gfs_500_204s.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

PV situated over western hudson bay, good position for a mid atlantic/coastal storm. Usually when you see the PV over eastern hudson's bay, there's a good chance the event will be suppressed. But taken verbatim, yeah, this is about as good as it gets. Nice ridge axis poking up in the intermountain West, 50-50 and block downstream. At this point I'm more worried about a miss to the south than a Lakes cutter. The chances of the latter occurring are virtually nil w/ a strong neg nao/ao.

gfs_500_204s.gif

Very informative post Tom thanks. Where was the PV on Dec 09?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

do you have the link to the post 144 hr black n white charts for the ggem? the one i use comes out around the euro that shows the precip for that timeframe to

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

hr 168 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hde_50.gif

hr 192 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdj_50.gif

hr 216 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdk_50.gif

hr 240 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdf_50.gif

http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

That is a good run but don't expect it to last. I'm taking things one step at a time. I hope we do get a nice early December storm because they're my favorite kinds due to the low sun angle, knowing winter just begun, it's the holiday season, and it would be the first snow of the season which I love the most. I just hope we don't draw in too much of that pesky warm ocean and get a rain snow mix even in central jersey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...