Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[tombo82685]

sub 996 low moving ene away from the coast lgt precip over va, lgt to mod precip over e nc se va

[CooL]

sub 996 low moving ene away from the coast lgt precip over va, lgt to mod precip over e nc se va

meh..supressed

[Animal]

Thanks of the info tombo.

Seems to be a decent event for 40 south possibly on this run for early season.

[tombo82685]

the block was a little to strong this run, and pushed it to far south

[tombo82685]

Thanks of the info tombo.

Seems to be a decent event for 40 south possibly on this run for early season.

yea dc prob gets a couple inches

[Animal]

meh..supressed

this event is a good week away. Nothing to write off at this point in central and northern nj.

[Dsnowx53]

Definitely a good sign that in a strong La Nina, modeling is showing storms suppressed to the south...you know all the crap we dealt with in the 07/08 and 08/09 winters with models teasing us, then of course bumping north as the storm got closer.

Of course, it could be like last year, where the block is just constantly too strong, but I think more times than not, we can count on the guidance being too suppressed at this juncture.

[tombo82685]

that next storm looks sick, the dec 5th storm strengthens, would become our 50/50 low, block is in place, a 1044 high is in northern plains

[Dsnowx53]

that next storm looks sick, the dec 5th storm strengthens, would become our 50/50 low, block is in place, a 1044 high is in northern plains

[tombo82685]

Definitely a good sign that in a strong La Nina, modeling is showing storms suppressed to the south...you know all the crap we dealt with in the 07/08 and 08/09 winters with models teasing us, then of course bumping north as the storm got closer.

Of course, it could be like last year, where the block is just constantly too strong, but I think more times than not, we can count on the guidance being too suppressed at this juncture.

bingo, its already been like that so far this late fall, forcasted to strong.

[Rtd208]

In my opinion this is probably a decent spot to be in this far out for the Philly/NYC crowd, this storm could easily shift further north during the course of the coming week.

[tombo82685]

lol dec 5th is down to sub 984 due east of bar harbor me by about 300 miles, mid west storm is taking shape shooting precip up into nebraska, while a 1048 high is in the northern plains

[tombo82685]

lol a 1050 high in northern plains

[jrodd321]

In my opinion this is probably a decent spot to be in this far out for the Philly/NYC crowd, this storm could easily shift further north during the course of the coming week.

Exactly my thinking.

[Alpha5]

Euro misses wide left with storm #1

[CooL]

In my opinion this is probably a decent spot to be in this far out for the Philly/NYC crowd, this storm could easily shift further north during the course of the coming week.

going by tombo's updates, the euro has been pretty consistent on having a storm for the mid atlantic area. Is it even on the GFS? still a long way to go.

[MJO812]

Exactly my thinking.

Let the north trend commence

[LMolineuxLM1]

I hope this Board will be shored up for traffic concerns if we are going to have an active winter. Especially if we jump into events already this early in this boards early term.

[tombo82685]

below zero highs for the northern plain under that high, sub 510 thickness over n mid atl and ne hr 210

[jrodd321]

below zero highs for the northern plain under that high, sub 510 thickness over n mid atl and ne hr 210

Doesn't that intense cold mean storm #2 is going to be squashed?

[tombo82685]

Doesn't that intense cold mean storm #2 is going to be squashed?

so far it is, the euro's bias has taken over now, its held the storm in the sw over a day now

[tombo82685]

yea the euro's bias has gone in full affect its still holding the storm in the sw

[MJO812]

I would think the ridge would be much stronger, considering we are in a strong la Nina.

[tombo82685]

by hr 240 the whole united states is under a ridge, while the ne still has a trof, unthe ridge in western tx the storm is cutoff

[Alpha5]

Still time for the first one to trend more favorable, block isnt helping though

[CooL]

by hr 240 the whole united states is under a ridge, while the ne still has a trof, unthe ridge in western tx the storm is cutoff

lol w/o the massive -nao i bet we would have spring like temps at that point.

[Riptide]

I'm still surprised at how clueless the GFS is on both events.

[MJO812]

I'm still surprised at how clueless the GFS is on both events.

Why are you surprised? It's the goofus

[MJO812]

HPC has this storm further north than the models.

http://www.hpc.ncep....dayfcst_wbg.gif

[Chris L]

that next storm looks sick, the dec 5th storm strengthens, would become our 50/50 low, block is in place, a 1044 high is in northern plains

Sounds like a classic event in the making...