Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[tombo82685]

Tom just asking where is the cold air supply now? Everyone keeps talking about we need to get our snow in the next few weeks....or the pattern will go down hill......The pattern sucks now and does not looks to change..........I dont see how it can get any worse in january, then it is now.

Tim, it can get a lot worse trust me. The only reason we really haven't torched is because we have had a -nao to keep us somewhat normal. If we didn't have that the se ridge would be baking us. The cold air is in canada, but can't make it down here do to the -pna and se ridge combo, so it gets bottled up north or deposited out west. What we need is a -epo to dislodge the cold from the pole into canada, combined with a neutral or pos pna to get it down here.

'

[Allsnow]

Tim, it can get a lot worse trust me. The only reason we really haven't torched is because we have had a -nao to keep us somewhat normal. If we didn't have that the se ridge would be baking us. The cold air is in canada, but can't make it down here do to the -pna and se ridge combo, so it gets bottled up north or deposited out west. What we need is a -epo to dislodge the cold from the pole into canada, combined with a neutral or pos pna to get it down here.

'

Well i was in the 60's the other day, and look to make a run at that before wed front......seems like 2007-2008 cold.....warm up and rain..then cold again. I think the only diff as of now is the trough access is further west........Are there signs of a -epo in the long range? Or its ten days away? And who is to say we get the cold in here, and its dry. We have seen that many of times...... i rather torch with a +nao, beacuse the -nao is pretty much giving me nothing right now

[Alpha5]

If the GGEM verifies I promise I will never complain about not getting snow

.....for a week or two

[tombo82685]

Well i was in the 60's the other day, and look to make a run at that before wed front......seems like 2007-2008 cold.....warm up and rain..then cold again. I think the only diff as of now is the trough access is further west........Are there signs of a -epo in the long range? Or its ten days away? And who is to say we get the cold in here, and its dry. We have seen that many of times...... i rather torch with a +nao, beacuse the -nao is pretty much giving me nothing right now

yea the euro and it ens were hinting at it in the 7 day range, though it looks short lived. 0z euro had a pos epo at day ten, with pos pna, but it looks transient.

[Allsnow]

yea the euro and it ens were hinting at it in the 7 day range, though it looks short lived. 0z euro had a pos epo at day ten, with pos pna, but it looks transient.

I refuse to except this tombo

[MJO812]

The GFS is still showing the retrogading storm.

[ChescoWx]

December looks likely to have several wintry/mixed events...if you enjoy wintry weather this will likely be your one shot as once we get to January I am anticipating some nice days in the 60's. I have a feeling we see above normal December snow then almost nothing in January followed by below normal February and an above normal snow month in March with even an early April event thrown in for good measure.

Should be a very interesting next few weeks!

Enjoy!

Paul

www.chescowx.com

Well i was in the 60's the other day, and look to make a run at that before wed front......seems like 2007-2008 cold.....warm up and rain..then cold again. I think the only diff as of now is the trough access is further west........Are there signs of a -epo in the long range? Or its ten days away? And who is to say we get the cold in here, and its dry. We have seen that many of times...... i rather torch with a +nao, beacuse the -nao is pretty much giving me nothing right now

[ChescoWx]

Hi Tom

Any updates on your home search?

Regarding the weather I am confident we see some very interesting winter weather over the next few weeks. I think we see at least 3 snow to IP to ZR to rain events in the Philly Burbs....what say you?

Take care,

Paul

yea the euro and it ens were hinting at it in the 7 day range, though it looks short lived. 0z euro had a pos epo at day ten, with pos pna, but it looks transient.

[tombo82685]

The GFS is still showing the retrogading storm.

yea but further north. Its almost acting like a 50/50 low and locking the high pressure in forcing the midwest storm south. 12z run gives dc some snow.

[tombo82685]

Whatever happens with that dec 5th event the coastal that forms may be huge in forming a 50/50 low down the road for the next storm a couple days later or so. 12z gfs forms it and retrogrades it back into maine. Boy the atlantic loooks like...

[mattinpa]

yea but further north. Its almost acting like a 50/50 low and locking the high pressure in forcing the midwest storm south. 12z run gives dc some snow.

We get snow showers as well.. and it has a nice storm moving along the south, but it sheers out again.

[tombo82685]

Hi Tom

Any updates on your home search?

Regarding the weather I am confident we see some very interesting winter weather over the next few weeks. I think we see at least 3 snow to IP to ZR to rain events in the Philly Burbs....what say you?

Take care,

Paul

Yea i have narrowed it down to nw chester county with elevations over 500 ft or the green lane area. I want to see how this winter does to see which does best. I agree with your thoughts i think we get some wintry precip in here with snow to ice or rain events. All snow events would be clippers imho.

[usedtobe]

Whatever happens with that dec 5th event the coastal that forms may be huge in forming a 50/50 low down the road for the next storm a couple days later or so. 12z gfs forms it and retrogrades it back into maine. Boy the atlantic loooks like...

The low off the coast still looks to be too far south to allow much to happen in the longer ranges. Even the dec 5th event is flurries to a dusting at most for places like dca. It ends up with the low getting squashed so much that the model show mostly cold advection with a vort going through the area. Usually in those cases, it's tough to get much south of the vort track. Beyond that threat, the gfs pattern looks cold and dry and the vortex is to far south and west in the atlantic to allow room for any system to get into the mid atlantic region. Thankfully, it's so far out there that the pattern there is no way to know what might happen.

[tombo82685]

The low off the coast still looks to be too far south to allow much to happen in the longer ranges. Even the dec 5th event is flurries to a dusting at most for places like dca. It ends up with the low getting squashed so much that the model show mostly cold advection with a vort going through the area. Usually in those cases, it's tough to get much south of the vort track. Beyond that threat, the gfs pattern looks cold and dry and the vortex is to far south and west in the atlantic to allow room for any system to get into the mid atlantic region. Thankfully, it's so far out there that the pattern there is no way to know what might happen.

going by how the gfs over does the cold 9 time out of 10 it could get interesting if you lessen the grip of the cold. Im pretty positive the block won't be as strong as modelled. So far this season it seems like all the models have developed the block to strong in the long-medium range only to slacken it off in the short range.

[MJO812]

12z GFS ensemble mean still has the retrogading low.

[tombo82685]

through hr 150 12z euro is stronger with the block and further west compared to the 0z run

[tombo82685]

goa low is also not present at hr 156

[tombo82685]

hr 162 has a 1008 low in central iowa

[tombo82685]

hr 174 block further west than 0z run. 850 line runs through central va then up through pittsburgh then through central ohio then down to st louis. 1008 low over milwaukee

[tombo82685]

hr 180 1012 low over grand rapids, 850 line oc md, to richmond to sw corner of pa. lgt precip in central and western pa

[tombo82685]

hr 186 1012 low over detroit, lgt precip all of pa, except lgt to mod precip in western pa. 850 line ocmd to dc to hagerstown then down the shenandoah valley

[tombo82685]

hr 192 broad area of llow pressure 1016 over pa, lgt precip over nyc and li, dc balt, and pa, with lgt to mod precip from susquhanna river east to nj turnpike. 850 line sea isle city nj to knet/new castle county border in del to fredricksburg va to just nw of richmond

[tombo82685]

hr 198 1008 low 100 miles east of cape may nj, lgt precip all of pa dc balt. lgt to mod precip phl and western burbs to elmira ny to bridgeport ct to montauk pt. 850 line on southern nj coast.

[CooL]

hr 198 1008 low 100 miles east of cape may nj, lgt precip all of pa dc balt. lgt to mod precip phl and western burbs to elmira ny to bridgeport ct to montauk pt. 850 line on southern nj coast.

That sounds alittle interesting. Precip issues?

[tombo82685]

hr 204 sub 1008 low 300 miles east of toms river, nj lgt precip all of pa dc balt. lgt to mod precip all of delaware to north east md to harrisburg to stroudsburg to ct coast. area of mod precip just on eastern li coast. 850s off shore.

[tombo82685]

hr 210 sub 1004 low moving ene lgt precip lingering over ny pa dc balt, delmarva and southern pa

[tombo82685]

That sounds alittle interesting. Precip issues?

yea most likely bl issues around the cities and coast, further nw is a different story. By hr 204 the cities are in the 30s while nand w are close to or below frz. This looks like an elevation or latitude system per this

[daxx]

Tom how does the Pacific look on this run?

[tombo82685]

Tom how does the Pacific look on this run?

once the trof kicks east, a huge ridge develops out west. By day 9 and 10 the ridge is still there but a pos epo is ongoing with goa low

[tombo82685]

12z gfs indiv ens out to 180, some interesting solutions

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html