Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[Weathergun]

I think the key to getting the storm closer to the coast like the 12z Euro is showing is how soon the upper low closes off.

If the upper low doesn't close off in time,the low will bomb out too far to the east.So it will be important to see how the Euro

handles this in the future runs.

The Euro bias I think is also at play here. The 12z run also hangs back more energy across the SW than at 0z. Which gives more room for the Dec 5 storm to amplify along the coast.

[atownwxwatcher]

Has anyone looked at the UKMET?

Looks like at 120 it has pretty much NADA....

[bluewave]

Has anyone looked at the UKMET?

Weaker block on the UKIE so the storm rides futher to the north.

[bluewave]

The Euro bias I think is also at play here. The 12z run also hangs back more energy across the SW than at 0z. Which gives more room for the Dec 5 storm to amplify along the coast.

And the Euro has more blocking 12z than 0Z as the low approaches the coast and it closes off sooner.

All the blocking that we have been experiencing lately has really been a challenge for the models but makes

the pattern more interesting to follow.The models really didn't start picking up on our first sleet/snow back

in early November with a block and closed low until a few days in advance.

[Eskimo Joe]

Haven't seen anything about it. Have you seen it?

No, just asking around.

only stuff i have is out to 72 hrs. Psu e wall has it to hr 144 but its hard to decipher whats going on

Cool beans. I didn't see anyone talking about the UKMET. Seems to be taking a middle-of-the-road approach.

Weaker block on the UKIE so the storm rides futher to the north.

Ah thanks.

[Alpha5]

Upton

A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH S OF GREENLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEWENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD... ANDPER THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF...STEER A DIGGING NORTHERNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT-SAT...ANDTHEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY... WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTSUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLEFARTHER NORTH AND NOW BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...ESPECIALLY TO LONG ISLAND/CT...WITH H8 TEMPS AND PARTIALTHICKNESSES ALL SUPPORTING SNOW. THE 12Z GGEM THROUGH 12Z SUNDAYSUPPORTS THIS GENERAL IDEA...WHILE THE MUCH SLOWER 12Z GFS IS ATLEAST A DAY LATER AND MORE THAN A DOLLAR SHORT IN BRINGING THISSYSTEM ABOUT...WITH THE BULK OF ITS PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE MONNIGHT-TUE. DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HAVE FORECAST ONLYSLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY...WITH P-TYPE SNOW INLAND...AND RAIN/SNOW AT THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND ALL SNOW AT NIGHT.

[mattinpa]

GFS has been consistent pretty much with the no storm theme now....

The off runs show nothing while the 0z and 12z runs have something or are close to something. Right now, I think the GFS will get on board if the Euro/DGEX/GGEM are consistently showing something.

[SnoSki14]

It's a good pattern so that you expect something to happen. I'm concerned that the lack of a PNA or western ridging is the cause of the storm not being able to amplify in the east so we see more late development or suppression. It's amazing to see how great this pattern is working for those in Europe while it's a case of hit or miss for us.

[Thunder Road]

WHILE THE MUCH SLOWER 12Z GFS IS ATLEAST A DAY LATER AND MORE THAN A DOLLAR SHORT IN BRINGING THISSYSTEM ABOUT

:lol:

[Alpha5]

:lol:

Yeah glad to see Upton has a sense of humor