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Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in New York City Metro

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Chris L

Chris L

Posted
Posted

Where is everyone for crying out loud? Our first legit snow threat and I have heard crickets in here all day. GGEM? Ukie? GFS Ens Anthony? WTF is wrong with you people? :)

This is no where as big as Eastern....

One day, we will get the same amount of members as they used to have.

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Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

The 18z GFS should be interesting but we'll probably be asking for the 0z GFS. It looks like the GFS won't win this one.

For all the Jets fans out there..this storm has a modeled start time of late saturday night into sunday and it could very well continue into Monday...esp in Mass where the game is being played. Could make for a very interesting game. A lot of speculation obviously, for all we know this may not amplify and be more of a light event, but is at least fun to think about.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

NWS

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

a blocking upper high S of Greenland and an upper trough over New

England will maintain cold conditions through the period... and

per the last two runs of the European model (ecmwf)...steer a digging northern

stream shortwave across the northern plains Friday night-Sat...and

then across the Ohio Valley to the middle Atlantic coast Sat night-

Sunday... with rapid cyclogenesis off the middle Atlantic coast

Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended a little

farther north and now brings precipitation into the area Sunday night-

Monday...especially to Long Island/CT...with 800 mb temperatures and partial

thicknesses all supporting snow. The 12z ggem through 12z Sunday

supports this general idea...while the much slower 12z GFS is at

least a day later and more than a dollar short in bringing this

system about...with the bulk of its precipitation remaining offshore Monday

night-Tue. Due to the forecast uncertainty have forecast only

slight chance pop for Sunday-Monday...with p-type snow inland...

and rain/snow at the coast during the day and all snow at night

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

It looks at this time like the GGEM/ECMWF are showing this clipper to the south of NJ, with most of the snow in the central Mid Atlantic (I'm not taking the GFS yet as a serious consideration as it still seems to have difficulty handling the pattern for this time frame, also the ECM/GGEM recently seem to have catched onto trends earlier than the GFS). There's still a few days left so the storm will probably trend, but with the cold air and the -NAO in place, is there a chance that it trends north to put the main snow bands near NJ/NYC or does it seem likely that the clipper stays suppressed with the best chance of snow in the central Mid Atlantic?

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Probably the GFS losing the storm in the medium-range again, only to bring it back with 3-4 days left...

Seems like it, considering every other model is showing a storm for this time frame. The same also happened with the mid October nor'easter that the ECM/GGEM showed way before the GFS, and the Thanksgiving storm where the GFS had a mess of weak low pressures while the ECM was already consistently showing the GLC idea. It may take some time, but eventually the GFS should start showing this storm again.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I think the key to getting the storm closer to the coast like the 12z Euro is showing is how soon the upper low closes off.

If the upper low doesn't close off in time,the low will bomb out too far to the east.So it will be important to see how the Euro

handles this in the future runs.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

GFS just wont give in.

With this past weekend's cold wave it's important to note the GFS was locked with a similar solution for several runs and then caved around day 5 to a general idea the Euro had at day 7. Don't be surprised if the Euro caves to the GFS for a couple of runs before coming back with something close to what it has been showing for a while.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

FWIW, the 18z DGEX starts out like the GFS with no storm on Sunday, but then develops a storm near the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday night which looks like it would produce snow/mix from NYC into extreme southern SNE. It will probably change by its next run though, the DGEX sometimes has horrible accuracy in its longer range.

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