Chris L Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 DT is going absolutely crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 DT is going absolutely crazy. Haha I know, I love it. Gotta say its pretty nice seeing him go nuts about this storm after seeing like all the different threads over at you know where starting with NO COLD AIR FOR NORTHEAST WHY -NAO WONT DO ANYTHING FOR THE EAST blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS is a great step in the right direction. Very close to a very nice system. The clipper storm has improved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 DT is going absolutely crazy. A little bit too crazy if you ask me...the storm is 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 A little bit too crazy if you ask me...the storm is 10 days away More like 8 days. But that's still too far. Rare for DT to be this excited about a storm so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 More like 8 days. But that's still too far. Rare for DT to be this excited about a storm so far away. maybe because it's the first potential one of the season... we probably are all itching for the first big one so there's a tendency to get overly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 maybe because it's the first potential one of the season... we probably are all itching for the first big one so there's a tendency to get overly excited. I guess, but I don't see the use in getting over amped right now. There's so much uncertainty and each of the guidance forecasts are so conditional on certain pieces falling into place. This is being proven to us on a run by run basis as we see the inconsistency with the blocking regime to our north. I think ultimately, as I gave away in my thread yesterday, this is our first real shot for significant snow...but there's still a ton of questions left to be answered. Day 8-10 threats don't do it for me after the debacles I've seen on these models inside 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 DT is going absolutely crazy. Yes he is but he also fears the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I guess, but I don't see the use in getting over amped right now. There's so much uncertainty and each of the guidance forecasts are so conditional on certain pieces falling into place. This is being proven to us on a run by run basis as we see the inconsistency with the blocking regime to our north. I think ultimately, as I gave away in my thread yesterday, this is our first real shot for significant snow...but there's still a ton of questions left to be answered. Day 8-10 threats don't do it for me after the debacles I've seen on these models inside 72 hrs. yep.. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 maybe because it's the first potential one of the season... we probably are all itching for the first big one so there's a tendency to get overly excited. We all are, just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 There will probably be a storm in this time frame, the NAO rising from strongly negative to less negative is a good indication of a storm, usually. Also a less negative NAO would favor less suppression. This isn't like last winter where we had a consistent huge block and major confluence holding the storms further south. This storm will most likely end up closer to the coast and further north than depicted. It's a very fine line though and these early December systems have to be timed pretty perfectly for I-95 to see big snows. Afterward, I see some moderation and then perhaps another big cold shot between the 15-20th. There is a lot of cold up in western and central Canada. If the block and NAO become a bit more negative around then, then we'd have another storm threat with a big shot of cold air right after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 DT is going absolutely crazy. I've heard a lot about DT since joining Eastern back in February and just as much after transitioning to American. Where can I find his blog? I'd love to see what all the fuss is about. edit to add: Nevermind, google to the rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS ensemble mean doesn't show much, but indicates that some individual members probably show a storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I've heard a lot about DT since joining Eastern back in February and just as much after transitioning to American. Where can I find his blog? I'd love to see what all the fuss is about. He is on StormVista Forums & also his own site www.wxrisk.com!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The GFS bombs the Dec. 8th storm a little too late, and offshore, but still a threat 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I've heard a lot about DT since joining Eastern back in February and just as much after transitioning to American. Where can I find his blog? I'd love to see what all the fuss is about. His website is wxrisk.com and a lot of people comment on him because of his interesting personality. He is very sarcastic and sometimes a bit of an ass but he knows his weather. He also has very strong opinions and tends to get very bitter when things don't turn out his way. That being said, he usually has really amazing analysis and I have learned a lot from him. He coined the "weekend rule" and has many good resources on his website with regard to winter storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The GFS bias is at play right now, and offshore is where we want the storm to be at this point. As long as the storm is there, we're good. Even though NYC didn't jackpot with any storm last winter (aside from 2/25), they were all forecast to pretty much miss the city until two or three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 He is on StormVista Forums & also his own site www.wxrisk.com!! I found him using this magical search engine known as Google I probably should have done that before posting, but thanks for taking the time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 His website is wxrisk.com and a lot of people comment on him because of his interesting personality. He is very sarcastic and sometimes a bit of an ass but he knows his weather. He also has very strong opinions and tends to get very bitter when things don't turn out his way. That being said, he usually has really amazing analysis and I have learned a lot from him. He coined the "weekend rule" and has many good resources on his website with regard to winter storms as well. You know why the weekend rule works so well? Because it includes Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Based on this alone, it has a 4/7 chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 His website is wxrisk.com and a lot of people comment on him because of his interesting personality. He is very sarcastic and sometimes a bit of an ass but he knows his weather. He also has very strong opinions and tends to get very bitter when things don't turn out his way. That being said, he usually has really amazing analysis and I have learned a lot from him. He coined the "weekend rule" and has many good resources on his website with regard to winter storms as well. Pretty much what I've gathered from the comments posted about him. I really haven't seen anyone criticize his forecasting, just his demeanor. Thanks for the quick profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 You know why the weekend rule works so well? Because it includes Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Based on this alone, it has a 4/7 chance of verifying. Hey...I never said it was such an amazing discovery I'm just saying it is something he stumbled upon. Also, I'm sure at some point you have taken a statistics course, if it was 4/7 days (which it isn't because the storm has to start or end on fri sat or sun which is 3 not 4...) then there should still be a 60/40 split between KU storms on the "weekend" and during the week. And we all know this to not be the case. I haven't looked at it in a while but it is something like 90/10 or something ridiculous like that...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Where is everyone for crying out loud? Our first legit snow threat and I have heard crickets in here all day. GGEM? Ukie? GFS Ens Anthony? WTF is wrong with you people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Where is everyone for crying out loud? Our first legit snow threat and I have heard crickets in here all day. GGEM? Ukie? GFS Ens Anthony? WTF is wrong with you people? lol im very happy with the gfs showing a bomb ots right now. We are in a very good position 8 days out. Where's tombo with the new euro? it should be rollin now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Where is everyone for crying out loud? Our first legit snow threat and I have heard crickets in here all day. GGEM? Ukie? GFS Ens Anthony? WTF is wrong with you people? Individual ensembles of the GFS are all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I've seen the other models in the 12z suite, I just had to go to other regional threads in order to see them and the analysis. Which sucks. Where is Earthlight? Metfan? 4DVAR? The other 10-12 regulars from Eastern? C'mon people. Snow might be coming, DT is honking, GFS SE bias in in effect, and it seems this regional board is asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 If those ensemble members agreed 8 days away i would be in shock. But they def. show hints of the cold air in place and possibly a phased storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Those are some fruitful indiv. ensemble members. I'm hyped to see what happens in the next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I've seen the other models in the 12z suite, I just had to go to other regional threads in order to see them and the analysis. Which sucks. Where is Earthlight? Metfan? 4DVAR? The other 10-12 regulars from Eastern? C'mon people. Snow might be coming, DT is honking, GFS SE bias in in effect, and it seems this regional board is asleep. I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 12 Z ECM first event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 For my se pa people euro is 1 to 3 2 to 4 esp south dc cashes in. Euro takes clipped across central vs then develops a coastal as It heads ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.