Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[nzucker]

whats also may not be helping is the polar vortex sitting just north of the great lakes lol

Brutally cold?

[CooL]

so it gets supressed lol atleast its there, great job tombo

[atownwxwatcher]

Actually sounds in pretty close agreement with the GFS...just deeper then what the GFS was showing...pretty similar & certainly enough to pay attention to...

GFS just takes it north

[SnowGoose69]

Brutally cold?

Not really from what I see....again, it seems the last 15-20 years, even with these PVs into or almost into the states we are not getting the degree (literally) of cold air we seemed we used to get.

[tombo82685]

Not really from what I see....again, it seems the last 15-20 years, even with these PVs into or almost into the states we are not getting the degree (literally) of cold air we seemed we used to get.

thickness wise its pretty compacted the core of the cold, prob once that storm exits that will dump down somewhat

[tombo82685]

alright im off to bed, ill check in tomorrow on my phone with a couple of 12z euro things

[iverson3]

Thanks for the play-by-play tombo, night

[atownwxwatcher]

Thanks for the play by play

Will take this at this point and time!

[nzucker]

Not really from what I see....again, it seems the last 15-20 years, even with these PVs into or almost into the states we are not getting the degree (literally) of cold air we seemed we used to get.

It's not really the full PV that's coming down. The GoA low is preventing the coldest air from moving into the CONUS, but the PV sitting over the Canadian Archipelago is close to tumbling into the CONUS due to the massive NAO block. There's a massive ridge over the Bering Strait which reaches all the way to the North Pole, and that's causing Canada to fill up with colder air, especially Northeast Canada. I could see an arctic outbreak in this pattern if that ridge starts to bleed east into AK as it did last week.

I think January 2009 was a pretty historic arctic outbreak. Maine recorded its coldest temperature ever with a -50F reading at Big Black River.

[CooL]

a PV on the lakes, i dont buy it. Watch the storm merge with the PV now lol Blocking likely overdone imo, now lets hope that beauty of a storm stays.

[Rtd208]

Like I had mentioned earlier, per the Euro, this is probably a pretty good spot for the Philly/NYC crowd to be in right now considering the storm is roughly 7-9 days away. The Euro will probably wind up trending further north over the next few days or so IMO. I think the next 2-3 weeks will yield some good winter storm potential for portions of the mid-atlantic and northeast, personally I would be happy with a couple of 6" snowfalls during the first few weeks of December.

[ptb127]

a PV on the lakes, i dont buy it. Watch the storm merge with the PV now lol Blocking likely overdone imo, now lets hope that beauty of a storm stays.

I know this is a new season, but the models always overdo the blocks and keep the storms too far to the south initally. I would expect this to come farther north..

[jrodd321]

Sounding a lot like the early stages of Dec 19 last year...

[Riptide]

I also think the latter system will trend farther north. We should probably take into account the very impressive snowcover across Canada. As a result, I don't think this will be another December 19th, should be fun to track either way.

[CooL]

I know this is a new season, but the models always overdo the blocks and keep the storms too far to the south initally. I would expect this to come farther north..

i agree, and lets get some run to run consistency with the gfs/euro and then things will really start to fire up..

[jrodd321]

i agree, and lets get some run to run consistency with the gfs/euro and then things will really start to fire up..

I think tonight was a big step in getting somewhat of a close solution for the GFS/Euro. Last night the GFS and Euro were on opposite pages for that dec 6-8 storm. Good to see them both showing it now, and I"ll take the Euro showing it just a little too far south for our area right now.

[SnowGoose69]

Like I had mentioned earlier, per the Euro, this is probably a pretty good spot for the Philly/NYC crowd to be in right now considering the storm is roughly 7-9 days away. The Euro will probably wind up trending further north over the next few days or so IMO. I think the next 2-3 weeks will yield some good winter storm potential for portions of the mid-atlantic and northeast, personally I would be happy with a couple of 6" snowfalls during the first few weeks of December.

Pretty much right, I'd be very surprised if this system ultimately happened and did not track further north than what is currently shown.

[phlwx]

Given how craptastic the GFS was this past weekend based on modeling 7-8 days prior to the Thanksgiving weekend I'd be very leery of supporting anything it spits out wrt to the first system on 12/5.

[tombo82685]

the dec 5th storm on the gfs is starting to show a lil more life.

[tombo82685]

0z jma for dec 5th

[opengeo]

0z jma for dec 5th

[NEG NAO]

Given how craptastic the GFS was this past weekend based on modeling 7-8 days prior to the Thanksgiving weekend I'd be very leery of supporting anything it spits out wrt to the first system on 12/5.

6Z GFS once again is showing the retrograding low just west of Maine at 204 supressing the precip down towards the gulf coast which is complete turn around from the 0Z which showed a storm coming up th east coast - these off run hour runs must be getting bad data initially same thing happened yesterday.........

Also by the 11th the NAO is positive for a few days on the 6Z ........

[Alpha5]

Sounding a lot like the early stages of Dec 19 last year...

Exactly what I was thinking...but even better, as some models have the storm hitting us not missing to the south. The euro was too south but the GFShas been good

[phlwx]

6Z GFS once again is showing the retrograding low just west of Maine at 204 supressing the precip down towards the gulf coast which is complete turn around from the 0Z which showed a storm coming up th east coast - these off run hour runs must be getting bad data initially same thing happened yesterday.........

Also by the 11th the NAO is positive for a few days on the 6Z ........

the 6/18 are more often than not the worst performing model runs.

[LVblizzard]

The GFS is so remarkably inconsistent that it's almost worthless to look at right now. At least the Euro has some clue about what might happen, with really the only difference between tonight's 0z and yesterday's 12z being the handling of the energy in the SW. The GFS has a lot of flip-flopping with a lot of things changing each run.

[MJO812]

12z GFS has the clipper. It is further north than the Euro.

RH field looks good.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...010+12UTC+162HR

[BL03]

my gut says something will happen next week just from the cold/ snow happening in Europe.

[atownwxwatcher]

12z GFS has the clipper. It is further north than the Euro.

RH field looks good.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...010+12UTC+162HR

[jrodd321]

Doesn't look like the GFS is going to have storm #2.

[MJO812]

Big shift towards the Euro on the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F29%2F2010+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=11%2F29%2F2010+12UTC+192HR