Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[tombo82685]

Instead of clogging up the long range threads and the obs threads, why don't we post anything that is dec 5th related into this topic.

[tombo82685]

18z gfs ens

[MGorse]

Perhaps time to get the snowblower ready to go.

[tombo82685]

Perhaps time to get the snowblower ready to go.

lol mega jinx, maybe for rochester

[tombo82685]

some of the 18z indiv ens runs have some pure weenie weather porn

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture

[MGorse]

lol mega jinx, maybe for rochester

You do know why we got some much snow last winter, right? It was simple, it was the first winter in my new house and the snowblower was not working for the December snowstorm. Therefore, historic snowfall!

[tombo82685]

You do know why we got some much snow last winter, right? It was simple, it was the first winter in my new house and the snowblower was not working for the December snowstorm. Therefore, historic snowfall!

how about for February?

[MGorse]

how about for February?

The snowblower was repaired just in time for the February storms, but the damage was already done.

[tombo82685]

The snowblower was repaired just in time for the February storms, but the damage was already done.

that was the true historic month, maybe your snowblower is a good luck charm

[tombo82685]

0z gfs sheers out the system and backs in a coastal storm into sne and new england. I would love to see what this storm looks like before the truncation Before the truncation happens the storm looks like its heading to the lakes, but i wonder how far it gets before it hits the block and where a 2ndry forms. On to the euro...

[tombo82685]

0z gfs ens look a little more spread out in terms of the dec 5th storm

[tombo82685]

so far on the 0z euro, the block is further east, and the overall look in the northeast and plains is warmer compared to the 12z euro, the system is also a lot further north, at hr 168 its in nw iowa, albeit weak though

[tombo82685]

at hr 192 storm went to the lakes, though its not strong 1004 low. Lgt precip over pa, looks like lgt snow i80 north in pa, nw nj, and hudson valley. lgt mix or llgt rain south of i80. Looks like a glorified, weak swfe.

[tombo82685]

Big difference this run is the block is a lot further east, allowing for the more northern push of the storm thus warmer temps.

[tombo82685]

hr 204 has lgt snow for the same area as mentioned abv

[tombo82685]

hr 210 has a nice storm starting to brew down in texas, with the block starting to work its way westward, and a nice ridge popping out west.

[tombo82685]

hr 216 nice west based nao starting to get going, while a storm is gathering shape in ne tx

[tombo82685]

hr 240 has a storm located over nw alabama. 850 line runs from sea isle city, nj to dover to la plata md to elkins wv. lgt to mod precip over pa

[mattinpa]

hr 240 has a storm located over nw alabama. 850 line runs from sea isle city, nj to dover to la plata md to elkins wv. lgt to mod precip over pa

That's another one the GFS never gets going. Is that precip. snow in PA?

[tombo82685]

That's another one the GFS never gets going. Is that precip. snow in PA?

i only have access to 2m temps and 850s and thicknesses. There are most likely bl issues, thicknesses are running right around 546, in late nov thats a fail unless your in the pocs. The precip is lgt like .01-.1, hvy stuff is still sw. I don;t think it really matters much, cause i think if it were to go out another 6 hours the 850 temps would push past us. The lack of 50/50 low is allowing the se ridge to flex its muscles.

[mattinpa]

i only have access to 2m temps and 850s and thicknesses. There are most likely bl issues, thicknesses are running right around 546, in late nov thats a fail unless your in the pocs. The precip is lgt like .01-.1, hvy stuff is still sw. I don;t think it really matters much, cause i think if it were to go out another 6 hours the 850 temps would push past us. The lack of 50/50 low is allowing the se ridge to flex its muscles.

See the GFS is cold through the period. Maybe the Euro will catch on and have a colder storm.

[tombo82685]

huge lol at the 0z canadian for this event

http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm

[tmagan]

huge lol at the 0z canadian for this event

http://www.stanford....0zPrecipGLB.htm

As good as the RGEM is, its just the opposite for the GGEM. Of course any short term model will be better than a long term model.

[nzucker]

I don't think the event post Day 10 on the 0z ECM would work out for us...too much ridging ahead of it. Pacific is starting to look better at this juncture with a monster +PNA block but we've lost the Atlantic side.

[CooL]

huge lol at the 0z canadian for this event

http://www.stanford....0zPrecipGLB.htm

lmao, at this point i'll take any model that is on our side for a coastal storm around that time period.

[atownwxwatcher]

Thing is though that the 00z GGEM may be laughable ..a couple things that may have to be considered..

Here is the 00z GGEM at 216

Here was the 12 Z ECM at 216

Pretty similar in there look. Difference is that the 12 Z ECM took that low out to sea and was weaker.

GGEM moves it more NNE ...and is deeper..

The other thing to potentially consider is that the GGEM is colder which would kind of lend support to the earlier ECM data as well as the GFS...and the GGEM alot of times in the cold season is the warmer model with a warm bias...

So at the very least i find it interesting.. considering that there have been alot of modeled changes with this potential or non potential event!

[Nikolai]

The key thing in all this is that the GFS, EURO, and GGEM all have some sort of storm. I think there's clearly a threat for our first wintry weather event in the D8-10 time-frame; whether it turns out wet or wintry is another issue, but the threat is definitely there. If anyone has noticed, the EURO and GFS have both turned significantly colder in the long-term as well... I think December should start with a bang.

[tombo82685]

Thing is though that the 00z GGEM may be laughable ..a couple things that may have to be considered..

Here is the 00z GGEM at 216

Here was the 12 Z ECM at 216

Pretty similar in there look. Difference is that the 12 Z ECM took that low out to sea and was weaker.

GGEM moves it more NNE ...and is deeper..

The other thing to potentially consider is that the GGEM is colder which would kind of lend support to the earlier ECM data as well as the GFS...and the GGEM alot of times in the cold season is the warmer model with a warm bias...

So at the very least i find it interesting.. considering that there have been alot of modeled changes with this potential or non potential event!

the thing i dont like about the ggem is after that storm goes by, we would most likely torch or get warm. Look at that +epo, that has basically cut off the cold air supply to canada.

[Allsnow]

the thing i dont like about the ggem is after that storm goes by, we would most likely torch or get warm. Look at that +epo, that has basically cut off the cold air supply to canada.

Tom just asking where is the cold air supply now? Everyone keeps talking about we need to get our snow in the next few weeks....or the pattern will go down hill......The pattern sucks now and does not looks to change..........I dont see how it can get any worse in january, then it is now.

[NYCSuburbs]

huge lol at the 0z canadian for this event

http://www.stanford....0zPrecipGLB.htm

It's interesting to notice how every model run shows the storm, but each one does something completely different, and some of them do crazy things with it, like this GGEM run and the 00z GFS that keeps snow in the NE for nearly 100 hours. Also the GGEM seems to take the heavy rain event on Wednesday and instead of showing it leave the region, turns it into a strong retrograding low in the NE by hour 168 that I've seen no other model show.