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Feb 28 potential ice discussion


ORH_wxman

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NAM at 12z tomorrow....it should start off pretty cold but it will moderate as winds come out of the E

...

Watch for a CF of sorts ...perhaps a diffused one, W of which might get a N/NE light drain and/or calm... That silly westward bulge in the isobaric layout is probably in part an attempt to resolve llv cold. It very cold up in NH/ME right now and that air mass will be loading in at least through midnight tonight, which may set up more static resistance in the interior - but I think NWS must have that covered because they hoisted advisories for much of the area.

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Watch for a CF of sorts ...perhaps a diffused one, W of which might get a N/NE light drain and/or calm... That silly westward bulge in the isobaric layout is probably in part an attempt to resolve llv cold. It very cold up in NH/ME right now and that air mass will be loading in at least through midnight tonight, which may set up more static resistance in the interior - but I think NWS must have that covered because they hoisted advisories for much of the area.

I'm guessing the NAM stream lines and a lot of other models are likely too much out of the SE...esp early in the event.

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The 18Z NAM is getting the idea that the low level mild air is probably never getting here. Same over toward MPM probably. I looked and the highest 2M temp seems to be 3C here at 21Z. Back down to 0C by 0Z.

This is gonna end up being a pretty good snow and snow/sleet event from YOW to YUL probably. I see BTV is not mentioning any FZRA in the Northeast Kingdom.

My p/c has a high of 44 tomorrow. hmmmmmmmm

27.7/24

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The 18Z GFS just jumped on board that track... ALB to the ME Coast.... ..or maybe it center jumps to there....

It gets a little interesting up here as the EC and NAM try to keep the sfc reflection passing through CNE. My winds back to the NE tomorrow afternoon and the NAM 10m streamlines show that well. Quite a monster warm sector of 70s up near PHL/TTN too.

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Let's try and get this track to continue to sag SE last minute like Fridays did. It won;t be as cold..but let's try to maximize icing and minimoze the amount of time we're all well into the 40's

I think you'll get some icing tomorrow. It's unclear if a lot of us in CT are stuck in the low 40s tomorrow afternoon or can make a run at 55 or so with afternoon convection!

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I think you'll get some icing tomorrow. It's unclear if a lot of us in CT are stuck in the low 40s tomorrow afternoon or can make a run at 55 or so with afternoon convection!

Nice to get that low level cold that was in mass all day in here now..Looks like it makes it to at least HFD.. Down to 29 here as soon as winds went NE

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You think we see some ice storm warnings for C NE?

EDIT: Will what is warning criteria ice?? >.25"??

Ice storm warning is for half an inch of ice or more.

fzrawarning.jpg

I'm not sure there will be widespread half inch ice because its not a long duration event....but someone will likely get close.

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BTV has a better worded advisory than GYX for around here... The only reason for no warning right now would be because there's just a little of everything (SN, PL, and ZR) and not enough of any one of them...

To me, QPF just doesn't seem all that significant... the magnitude of mixed precipitation just doesn't scream warning event to me. I want limbs on my car for them to issue a warning... none of this warning stuff for a couple inches of snow and sleet followed by a little ice.

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Ice storm warning is for half an inch of ice or more.

I'm not sure there will be widespread half inch ice because its not a long duration event....but someone will likely get close.

I don't expect anything more than slick driving (as opposed to branches/wires) down this way. Probalby prolonged enough where they might cancel schools.

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Looks like there could be a decent amount of sleet in NNE.

Yeah, I doubt anyone gets more than 2" of snow except far, far NNE... but I could see a lot of this falling as sleet in central/northern NH and ME.

I think we do a good deal of sleet tomorrow (1/4" QPF), some freezing rain (1-2/10" QPF), and then a few hours of 32-34F rain showers/drizzle.

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Well, I'm expecting nothing short of a complete disaster tomorrow. Will confirms bad icing and so does GYX.

All snow till 1pm, then ice and sleet to follow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

343 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NEW

HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE

THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE

REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND

FOOTHILLS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE

PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A

QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING

BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS SNOW SHOWERS.

afd

THE LOW TRACKS THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS PUSHES WARM

AIR INTO THE REGION...FROM S TO N. WARM AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST

EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE SFC ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE

DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT. THUS SN GOES

TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RN...THEN EVENTUALLY TO RN OVER SRN AND

COASTAL AREAS. ACCUMULATING SN OF SEVERAL INCHES N TO MAYBE AN

INCH OR TWO ALONG THE COAST FOLLOWED BY A COATING OF ICE...UP TO A

HALF INCH MORE NRN AREAS TO AS LITTLE AS A TRACE FOR SOME COASTAL

AREAS. SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING OVER N/MT AND

FOOTHILL AREAS AND SOME INTERIOR SRN AREAS. BEST CHC TO TOP 32 DEG

WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST.

GYX hints that I might never hit 32

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