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Feb 28 Severe Storm Threat - Discussion and obs


yoda

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Pretty ominous shelf cloud overhead right now... even if the storm is "eh."

Going to try to get S eventually...

Outflow is moving way ahead of the line, which is why the storms are weakening. Nothing to do with climo... get that out of your head right now.

the models didnt catch the outflow creating this stuff which is not climo but climo is an issue nonetheless.

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False.

May get more into it later...

i'll be eagerly awaiting. like anything else you can't give it full weight but we don't get big severe in feb and we will have a heck of a lot harder time recovering in feb than april. that's climo.

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I wouldnt quite give up on anything for later today. It's not like we're going to lose a whole lot of instability. We're relying more on dynamics than anything and we'll still have those as the front moves through. Not expecting an outbreak or anything but storms are still possible. Plus, who doesn't enjoy hours of Mod rain?

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Really now...

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1101 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

MDZ009-VAZ031-042-052-053-501-281630-

CLARKE VA-FAIRFAX VA-LOUDOUN VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER

VA-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-

1101 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.NOW...

AT 1101 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ST. LOUIS...MOVING

EAST AT 90 MPH.

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I wouldnt quite give up on anything for later today. It's not like we're going to lose a whole lot of instability. We're relying more on dynamics than anything and we'll still have those as the front moves through. Not expecting an outbreak or anything but storms are still possible. Plus, who doesn't enjoy hours of Mod rain?

we're still better off getting 500-1000 cape compared to being stable. the secondary low looks to go south of us or overhead. we'll get some good rains if we're lucky. se va might do ok still svr wise.

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I wouldnt quite give up on anything for later today. It's not like we're going to lose a whole lot of instability. We're relying more on dynamics than anything and we'll still have those as the front moves through. Not expecting an outbreak or anything but storms are still possible. Plus, who doesn't enjoy hours of Mod rain?

I was hoping for thunderstorms to give a nice birthday present. Well that's out

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we're still better off getting 500-1000 cape compared to being stable. the secondary low looks to go south of us or overhead. we'll get some good rains if we're lucky. se va might do ok still svr wise.

Yeah, I just went back and looked at the national radar mosaic. depressing. Though I like my richmond call.

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i'll be eagerly awaiting. like anything else you can't give it full weight but we don't get big severe in feb and we will have a heck of a lot harder time recovering in feb than april. that's climo.

I agree. Climo isn't killing a particular line or particular storm but climo makes things harder to happen in late Feb.

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Really now...

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1101 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

MDZ009-VAZ031-042-052-053-501-281630-

CLARKE VA-FAIRFAX VA-LOUDOUN VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER

VA-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-

1101 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.NOW...

AT 1101 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ST. LOUIS...MOVING

EAST AT 90 MPH.

Even if that was, St. Louis, MO, that would be here soon.

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Yeah, I just went back and looked at the national radar mosaic. depressing. Though I like my richmond call.

stuff in loudoun still looks OK tho behind the outflow boundary im not sure how much it can do besides rain a lot... some rain would be good.

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stuff in loudoun still looks OK tho behind the outflow boundary im not sure how much it can do besides rain a lot... some rain would be good.

It is nothing like the rest of the day, this is just another Yawner of an event here.

Just some rain falling here now

57/54

tornado watch is not neccesary

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