Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 From latest SPC outlook Up next the NAM lol and then 1630z SPC update - oh the fun never stops!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'll go 5 Tor / 30 Wind / 5 Hail with this update for the DC area. I was close to the current forecast... Ellinwoods original call a few days ago looks solid - 30 wind 5 tornado 5 hail it seems. My reply to my own forecast got ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I was close to the current forecast... My reply to my own forecast got ninja'd The 30 isn't in MD, so you failed. At least unitl the next outlook comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I was close to the current forecast... My reply to my own forecast got ninja'd - So what do you think now? Do we hold where we are and hope for the best or do you think there's any room for SPC improvement? And do you think we get a watch this PM? TOR or SVR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The 30 isn't in MD, so you failed. At least unitl the next outlook comes out. He did say "close" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Up next the NAM lol and then 1630z SPC update - oh the fun never stops!!! 11z HRRR still showing quite the messy area of showers with maybe some embedded thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 11z HRRR still showing quite the messy area of showers with maybe some embedded thunderstorms. Ianspeak - Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 - So what do you think now? Do we hold where we are and hope for the best or do you think there's any room for SPC improvement? And do you think we get a watch this PM? TOR or SVR? I'd say TOR watches from the MD/PA border (maybe into southern PA?) south through NC as we go along. Not expecting the SPC forecast to change much unless there's some big changes when nowcasting comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'd say TOR watches from the MD/PA border (maybe into southern PA?) south through NC as we go along. Not expecting the SPC forecast to change much unless there's some big changes when nowcasting comes along. Sounds like a solid call to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Sounds like a solid call to me. Actually, going back and looking at what's happening now I would include southern PA and southern/central NJ in the TOR watches. Busy at work today... not much time to look at stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Hazyish blue sky here - some sun would help dramatically I believe. More sun = more instability = higher chances at something memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Clearing taking place in the city, sun is starting to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just an obs here up in millersville, no sun, and rain, ocnl thunder. Not going to get anythinng severe up here today if this holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Suns out here...right in my eyes no less, while I lounge on the couch. Keeping an eye on the Putnam Co WV area of the line. Add: Roane Co too. Not expecting anything emminent, but that's where the eyes are watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just an obs here up in millersville, no sun, and rain, ocnl thunder. Not going to get anythinng severe up here today if this holds up. You just need the front to clear you and you should get into some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 *snip sat pic* Interesting feature back in Illinois. What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No tornado watch folks. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 30 CONTINUES. A NEW WATCH...LIKELY A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 30 FROM SWRN TO NRN VA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MD INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO...AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE. AT 1315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAST MOVING QLCS EXTENDING FROM SWRN PA THROUGH WRN WV TO ERN KY. THE NRN WV PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS TRACKING EWD AT 55-60 KT WHILE FARTHER SW INTO SWRN WV THE LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 45 KT. SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING TO THE EAST OF WW 30. ALTHOUGH CURRENT MUCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL INTO WRN/NRN VA /100-400 J PER KG/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE QLCS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. MODIFIED 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS LOWER-MIDDLE 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...THE CAP EVIDENT ON THIS SOUNDING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Meh... Watching visible it looks like I'm locked in for at least the next few hours. I was planning to have my target location near wesminster but even they have clouds. if I didn't have any classes today I would be temped to go into VA but that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No tornado watch folks. Most likely due to the stable layer present over the area (see IAD's sounding this morning). Things will start looking interesting again once we go surface-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Meh... Watching visible it looks like I'm locked in for at least the next few hours. I was planning to have my target location near wesminster but even they have clouds. if I didn't have any classes today I would be temped to go into VA but that's not the case. It's 8:45am... some clouds will burn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Most likely due to the stable layer present over the area (see IAD's sounding this morning). Things will start looking interesting again once we go surface-based. I feel like once SPC issues a discussion like that, though it's generally what ends up being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Interesting feature back in Illinois. What is that? That is cool, looks a tad like the knuckles of a back sheared anvil, but scale is a tad large. That would be a very cool spot to be in a plan right now, heading south and have a seat on the left side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Although looking at that sounding I realize that I have to see that it was based on low surface temps. As soon as we start cooking (as Ellinwood said) we should have it get much more interesting. That sounding came in with a surface temp in the lower to middle 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I feel like once SPC issues a discussion like that, though it's generally what ends up being issued. And it probably will be just a SVR watch. It won't be hard to upgrade the DC area and N-S-E to a TOR watch once storms get firing at the surface again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 And it probably will be just a SVR watch. It won't be hard to upgrade the DC area and N-S-E to a TOR watch once storms get firing at the surface again. Though with severe tstm watches there already is the text that says they can produce tornadoes with little or no warning. Don't know if I've ever (except for one time maybe) seen them upgrade a portion of a watch around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Mid-Level Lapse rates look pretty good... 7+C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Right now I'm liking the setup... once temps hit the upper 60s to lower 70s, we'll have a weak/moderate cap in place with some decent MUCAPE. If/when the storms re-fire in our area they could pack a better punch (at least initially) as they break through the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 It appears that me in SE PA will not get alot of the fun. Enjoy what yous get. Always more times ahead just was hoping for a good filming event for my birthday present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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