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Feb 28 Severe Storm Threat - Discussion and obs


yoda

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:lol: - So what do you think now? Do we hold where we are and hope for the best or do you think there's any room for SPC improvement? And do you think we get a watch this PM? TOR or SVR?

I'd say TOR watches from the MD/PA border (maybe into southern PA?) south through NC as we go along. Not expecting the SPC forecast to change much unless there's some big changes when nowcasting comes along.

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No tornado watch folks.

mcd0172.gif

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 30 CONTINUES.

A NEW WATCH...LIKELY A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF

WW 30 FROM SWRN TO NRN VA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MD INCLUDING THE

WASHINGTON D.C. METRO...AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE.

AT 1315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAST MOVING QLCS

EXTENDING FROM SWRN PA THROUGH WRN WV TO ERN KY. THE NRN WV PORTION

OF THIS LINE WAS TRACKING EWD AT 55-60 KT WHILE FARTHER SW INTO SWRN

WV THE LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 45 KT. SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE

MORNING TO THE EAST OF WW 30. ALTHOUGH CURRENT MUCAPE VALUES ARE

MARGINAL INTO WRN/NRN VA /100-400 J PER KG/ PER OBJECTIVE

ANALYSIS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE QLCS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL

LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER MOMENTUM

AIR TO THE SURFACE.

MODIFIED 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS LOWER-MIDDLE 70S SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS

HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...THE CAP EVIDENT ON THIS SOUNDING MAY

WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.

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Meh... Watching visible it looks like I'm locked in for at least the next few hours. I was planning to have my target location near wesminster but even they have clouds. if I didn't have any classes today I would be temped to go into VA but that's not the case. :(

It's 8:45am... some clouds will burn off.

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And it probably will be just a SVR watch. It won't be hard to upgrade the DC area and N-S-E to a TOR watch once storms get firing at the surface again.

Though with severe tstm watches there already is the text that says they can produce tornadoes with little or no warning. Don't know if I've ever (except for one time maybe) seen them upgrade a portion of a watch around these parts.

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