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Feb 28 Severe Storm Threat - Discussion and obs


yoda

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Another rumble of thunder and lightning now, thunder getting more frequent

IAD detecting lighting now 4 miles or less away with Heavy rain there

SPECI KIAD 280527Z 30007KT 3SM +RA BKN028 BKN055 OVC075 08/04 A3000 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001

METAR KJYO 280520Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM +TSRA SCT020 BKN070 OVC090 09/05 A2999 RMK AO2 P0004 LTG DSNT N NE AND SW

.10 in the bucket since midnight

43/40

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The discussion screams "not today pals"

Not necessarily, though I do agree that the wording is certainly not as strong. The discussion for such an evolving pattern seems rather short, especially for Day 1. The uncertainties and changes to the forecast were not mentioned at all! Seems like Broyles woke up on the wrong side of the bed :P

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Considering how busy things are with the current system and being sligtly out-of-season, I'm not surprised. They'll likely regroup overnight and we'll see more discussion later in the AM. Part of me also says....not this time. As much as Ellinwood wants to go, I'm still thinking limited results will abound. Timing/light (light for photography/video) being an issue or distance. If I don't chase, I'm likely to be down at Reagan National getting some plane imagery.

If I was going to pick a target, I'd probably say Washington, VA kinda between Luray and Front Royal. Probably take the ferry across the river (avoid the VA CF that is the beltway these days), and take US 15 s across I-66 to Rt. 29 then west to Washington. From there decision on the next move would be made or just wait for the convection to arrive.

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Actually, the weather action really kicked in this past Friday afternoon as soon as you went into a meeting at work -- any chance you could arrange for that same setup again tomorrow afternoon? Might thereby expand the severe outlook in DC/Balt area... :thumbsup:

I'll see what I can do! :)

Heard a rumble of thunder this morning while getting ready for work, around 615. Currently foggy and 46 in downtown Baltimore

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From latest SPC outlook

...LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

AN EXPANSIVE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z FROM THE UPPER OH

VALLEY SWWD TO INTO CNTRL KY. FARTHER S...A MORE RECENT

INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF A GRAVITY

WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST MESOSCALE AND

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ONGOING QLCS WILL

CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES TODAY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE

REGION. 12Z OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY

STRONG WIND FIELDS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWS AND

SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW

TORNADOES.

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