Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Another rumble of thunder and lightning now, thunder getting more frequent IAD detecting lighting now 4 miles or less away with Heavy rain there SPECI KIAD 280527Z 30007KT 3SM +RA BKN028 BKN055 OVC075 08/04 A3000 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 lol about to be hit it looks like, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Another rumble of thunder and lightning now, thunder getting more frequent IAD detecting lighting now 4 miles or less away with Heavy rain there SPECI KIAD 280527Z 30007KT 3SM +RA BKN028 BKN055 OVC075 08/04 A3000 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 METAR KJYO 280520Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM +TSRA SCT020 BKN070 OVC090 09/05 A2999 RMK AO2 P0004 LTG DSNT N NE AND SW .10 in the bucket since midnight 43/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 This is a peaceful thunderstorm, just enough to where its relaxing and not too stirring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Colesville, Bethesda, about to get some fun stuff as it is looking to cross the Potomac Rvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No wind at all, just heavy rain with 3 lightnings. I'll take it thou! Temperature lowered to 46F with the rain. Edit: Should end with near 0.4" of rain for the night, can't hurt I guess. Off to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Any system that brings in CG +TSRA METAR reports with the warm front is going to be good.. P.S. 0z NAM Fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Radar is lit up like a christmas tree to the west and southwest tonight. Impressive for end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 MDT risk held back to the west on new day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Any system that brings in CG +TSRA METAR reports with the warm front is going to be good.. As i sit here hacking my brains up what stations reported CG + TSRA in there Metar report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 MDT risk held back to the west on new day 1 outlook. It dun' shrunk! They don't have much faith in the diurnal re-firing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 They cut back to 15% and the disco is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The discussion screams "not today pals" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The discussion screams "not today pals" Not necessarily, though I do agree that the wording is certainly not as strong. The discussion for such an evolving pattern seems rather short, especially for Day 1. The uncertainties and changes to the forecast were not mentioned at all! Seems like Broyles woke up on the wrong side of the bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Considering how busy things are with the current system and being sligtly out-of-season, I'm not surprised. They'll likely regroup overnight and we'll see more discussion later in the AM. Part of me also says....not this time. As much as Ellinwood wants to go, I'm still thinking limited results will abound. Timing/light (light for photography/video) being an issue or distance. If I don't chase, I'm likely to be down at Reagan National getting some plane imagery. If I was going to pick a target, I'd probably say Washington, VA kinda between Luray and Front Royal. Probably take the ferry across the river (avoid the VA CF that is the beltway these days), and take US 15 s across I-66 to Rt. 29 then west to Washington. From there decision on the next move would be made or just wait for the convection to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Tornado Watch and Flood Watch for most of WV until 1PM. There's a line of storms coming across OH and KY that should be here in a couple of hours. Winds are gusting out of the SW bringing a surge of warm air in...currently 68F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The question becomes - do we see improvement in the 1300z update from SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 only if you see some improvement in forecasted parameters....right now they don't suggest a MOD risk... The question becomes - do we see improvement in the 1300z update from SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Locally run NMM (LWX) model - 22z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 only if you see some improvement in forecasted parameters....right now they don't suggest a MOD risk... I don't think we hit moderate now - but at least pulling us back into the 30% for wind. Looks pretty marginal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Actually, the weather action really kicked in this past Friday afternoon as soon as you went into a meeting at work -- any chance you could arrange for that same setup again tomorrow afternoon? Might thereby expand the severe outlook in DC/Balt area... I'll see what I can do! Heard a rumble of thunder this morning while getting ready for work, around 615. Currently foggy and 46 in downtown Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 OT but planes are flying really low over my house today. I guess weather related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Fog's burning up this morning and the sun's peaking through... good stuff. Line of storms out west looks crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 10z HRRR for 20z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The question becomes - do we see improvement in the 1300z update from SPC? It's truly an "F5" moment. Reload, reload, reload...lol. A lot of mtn. to get thru. for that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 10z HRRR for 20z today Looks messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The update is out - moderate shrunk a bit more it seems. We got 30% wind back in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I don't think we hit moderate now - but at least pulling us back into the 30% for wind. Looks pretty marginal right now. Close, but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 From latest SPC outlook ...LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... AN EXPANSIVE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD TO INTO CNTRL KY. FARTHER S...A MORE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF A GRAVITY WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ONGOING QLCS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Ellinwoods original call a few days ago looks solid - 30 wind 5 tornado 5 hail it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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