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Feb 28 Severe Storm Threat - Discussion and obs


yoda

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Who are your friends? Other freshman or any sophs in there? I might know some of them if that's the case.

I'm the only freshman who even has the right gear to go out and chase effectively. My GF said she'd come with me. Kyle Elliot might go out (haven't talked to him yet) and i'm sure some juniors and seniors may go out with just iphone's and work it that way.

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I'm the only freshman who even has the right gear to go out and chase effectively. My GF said she'd come with me. Kyle Elliot might go out (haven't talked to him yet) and i'm sure some juniors and seniors may go out with just iphone's and work it that way.

iPhone's lol. Good luck to them. Gotta have the 4G!!!

Don't know Kyle Elliot...I was with the group that has Justin in it (you met me and him at the conference last summer).

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don't say I never did nothin for ya

I make no promises ;)

Are the chances for tornadoes better with a QLCS than the usual squall line? I assume when you have broken clusters of storms versus a long straight line of them, the possibility of rotation is better?

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iPhone's lol. Good luck to them. Gotta have the 4G!!!

Don't know Kyle Elliot...I was with the group that has Justin in it (you met me and him at the conference last summer).

Yes, I remember. I don't know if justin is going out.. I haven't seen him in the WIC lately. Sad part is that I'm pretty sure none of the afformentioned people besides me even have GR3/GR2AE or even Spotter Network. Have to use phones like the ol' days. :thumbsdown:

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Yes, sorry I am late to the party, was at a baby shower all day in Germantown.

So it looks like there is a chance for showesr in the morning, some clearing and then the show begins? I know previous runs had rain in the morning but that looks to have changed.

Actually, the weather action really kicked in this past Friday afternoon as soon as you went into a meeting at work -- any chance you could arrange for that same setup again tomorrow afternoon? Might thereby expand the severe outlook in DC/Balt area... :thumbsup:

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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --BY SUNRISE...SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD HALT NORTH OF THE MASON

DIXON LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...W/ A

COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT DOWN THE VALLEY. THIS COLD

FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

BRINGING SEVERAL POSSIBLE WEATHER THREATS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT MAY BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN VELOCITY TO OVER 50 KT

EAST OF APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR

TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 70F

BY AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S...EVEN WITH MODEST

SUNSHINE CAPE INDICES MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID TO

LATE MORNING...WITH ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION

WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. INSTABILITY PEAKS

AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SPC HAS CONTINUED

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE

ENTIRE CWA. JUST SW OF THE CWA...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK HAS

OCCURRED...CLOSER TO WHERE MODELS INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW

AFTERNOON...ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR FURTHER. MAIN THREAT WITH

CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH ISOLATED QLCS

TORNADOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS

POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

SECONDARY THREATS IN REGARDS TO SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS AND FLASH

FLOODING ALSO PRESENT. AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES...PORTIONS OF

LLJ COULD ME DRAWN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND WIND GUSTS IN

EXCESS OF 30 KT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT

WINDS ARE POSSIBLE POST FROPA WHEN PRESSURE RISES AND DOWNSLOPING

FLOW MAY AIDE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KT REACHING THE SURFACE. THE

FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT...AS MAJORITY OF

QPF RESIDES NORTH OF REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PWATS WILL SUPPORT VERY

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION...BUT THE REGION IS QUITE DRY

AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE. LOWEST FFG ARE

ACROSS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE HIGHEST QPF...1-1.5" IS EXPECTED.

THUS THIS REACH HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH

FLOODING.

MAXIMA EVEN WITH MINIMAL SUNSHINE SHOULD APPROACH 60S TO MID

70S...AND RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED AT

LEAST AT KIAD...WHERE THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 28 FEB IS 70F. -- End Changed Discussion --

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gfs looks like some good rains too. both are undefined with the secondary wave but both seem to want to target the dc area with it.. the higher west to east band seems indicative of a warm-front like feature... yeah the "big one" is already north by that time.

nam mos moving into the low 70s most of the area.. that prob means mid-70s for many.

im not sure if spc will pull the trigger but recent guidance would seem to suggest we are in one of the better spots i think.

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