Feb 28 Severe Storm Threat - Discussion and obs

[Ellinwood]

Then why use analogs or teleconnections when forecasting? Those are all about statistics and patterns, not variables.

We use variables, present and forecast, to predict the analogs and teleconnections we use in the first place. ENSO - driven by the ocean temperature. The AO - driven by the difference in the SLP in certain spots. Teleconnections don't drive the variables, the variables determine the teleconnections. All of the variables are collected and analogs are found that best match these variables. Climo. has no influence on what the values of these variables are.

[mappy]

We use variables, present and forecast, to predict the analogs and teleconnections we use in the first place. ENSO - driven by the ocean temperature anomalies. The AO - driven by the difference in the SLP in certain spots. Teleconnections don't drive the variables, the variables determine the teleconnections. All of the variables are collected and analogs are found that best match these variables. Climo. has no influence on what the values of these variables are.

But, using analogs is using climo to forecast. That's my point. You say forecasting is all about using variables, but using an analog is not a variable, it is a statistic based on past weather events, which is what climatology is.

[Ian]

So let's generalize. If you don't use climo. to forecast a high temperature, do you use climo. to forecast the surface wind speed? the 850mb wind speed? The 500mb dewpoint? Any weather variable?

The point I'm getting to is how does weighing in climo. change the forecast? The reason why this storm took the more climatologically-favored route is because the forecast drastically changed from a late afternoon event to a late morning event. Weighing in climo. would not have legitimately changed the forecast.

you're still dodging. no one made a forecast based on climo alone. how often do we get big severe weather here in feb? is feb at all different than may?

in may with the same setup we probably would have had dews in the mid-60s+ with temps well past 70 across the area as the line came in which would have been more conducive than the marginal airmass it was hitting that had only barely recovered from morning marine influence.

[Ellinwood]

But, using analogs is using climo to forecast. That's my point. You say forecasting is all about using variables, but using an analog is not a variable, it is a statistic based on past weather events, which is what climatology is.

An example of using climo. in a long-range forecast, say temperature anomalies for the month of March, would adjust all temperatures closer to a 0.0 degree anomaly. Teleconnections and analogs are used to help determine the deviation from climo.

[Scuddz]

I think you two are making the same point from 2 sides of the argument just because Ian downplayed yesterday's severe threat and Ellinwood burned 60 bucks in gas. This could go on forever.

[Ellinwood]

you're still dodging. no one made a forecast based on climo alone. how often do we get big severe weather here in feb? is feb at all different than may?

in may with the same setup we probably would have had dews in the mid-60s+ with temps well past 70 across the area as the line came in which would have been more conducive than the marginal airmass it was hitting that had only barely recovered from morning marine influence.

Why would we have dews in the mid-60s and temperatures well past 70? "The same setup" in terms of the anomalies compared to climo., THAT I could agree on. However, given the same values of the variables, it wouldn't matter the time of year. No doubt a temp/dwpt of 80/65 would be better than 70/55. However, you don't make a forecast based on what values COULD be. You make a forecast based on what the variables ARE and what you expect them to be.

[mappy]

An example of using climo. in a long-range forecast, say temperature anomalies for the month of March, would adjust all temperatures closer to a 0.0 degree anomaly. Teleconnections and analogs are used to help determine the deviation from climo.

Exactly. So you do in fact use climo to forecast.

My point is proven... thank you.

[Ellinwood]

Exactly. So you do in fact use climo to forecast.

My point is proven... thank you.

I don't use climo TO forecast... I use climo. to forecast AGAINST. Using climo. would imply that I changed a +2.0 anomaly to +1.8 simply because climo. suggests the anomaly should be closer to 0.0. Climo determines the anomaly, not the actual value.

[mappy]

I don't use climo TO forecast... I use climo. to forecast AGAINST. Using climo. would imply that I changed a +2.0 anomaly to +1.8 simply because climo. suggests the anomaly should be closer to 0.0.

I didn't mention temperatures Mark, please read.

I used analogs and teleconnection as examples, which you agreed with me. Using both of those things is in fact using climo as a way of forecasting.

[Ian]

I think you two are making the same point from 2 sides of the argument just because Ian downplayed yesterday's severe threat and Ellinwood burned 60 bucks in gas. This could go on forever.

ellinwood likes to argue with me.

i dont use climo to forecast. i use climo to understand what to use as a baseline. people who know climo are MUCH better forecasters than those who dont, and i've only barely uncovered climos secrets. and yes i do love climo.

[Ian]

Why would we have dews in the mid-60s and temperatures well past 70? "The same setup" in terms of the anomalies compared to climo., THAT I could agree on. However, given the same values of the variables, it wouldn't matter the time of year. No doubt a temp/dwpt of 80/65 would be better than 70/55. However, you don't make a forecast based on what values COULD be. You make a forecast based on what the variables ARE and what you expect them to be.

i thought y-day would be bigger than it was tho the idea that it was late feb was always hanging there heavily. im talking if you had the same low, the same 500 pattern, the same track etc.. even with an early arrival, you'd likely do better later in the season. i am not arguing for an EXACT copy of everything on the map, obviously that would likely be similar tho you do have a lot more sunpower in may so who knows.

[Ellinwood]

i thought y-day would be bigger than it was tho the idea that it was late feb was always hanging there heavily. im talking if you had the same low, the same 500 pattern, the same track etc.. even with an early arrival, you'd likely do better later in the season. i am not arguing for an EXACT copy of everything on the map, obviously that would likely be similar tho you do have a lot more sunpower in may so who knows.

That's fine to do. The same synoptics in different times of the year would yield different results IF we also implied that the values of the variables were different. But that's not how you should adjust your expectations... the expectations should match the values of the variables at hand.

ellinwood likes to argue with me.

i dont use climo to forecast. i use climo to understand what to use as a baseline. people who know climo are MUCH better forecasters than those who dont, and i've only barely uncovered climos secrets. and yes i do love climo.

It's not that I like to argue... we're just often in disagreement (or have a misunderstanding, which seems to be the situation here)

EDIT:

To put it another way, I could see it as you being like "Wow... this in February?" where as I was "Wow, this in February!"

[BethesdaWX]

Why would we have dews in the mid-60s and temperatures well past 70? "The same setup" in terms of the anomalies compared to climo., THAT I could agree on. However, given the same values of the variables, it wouldn't matter the time of year. No doubt a temp/dwpt of 80/65 would be better than 70/55. However, you don't make a forecast based on what values COULD be. You make a forecast based on what the variables ARE and what you expect them to be.

Maybe lower sun angle/shorter daylight had something to do with it? Highs around 70 not as conductive for severewx..80 in the summer would be considered cool.

Just a thought. Not saying the timing had no effect, but a few factors can f**k everything.

[H2O]

Maybe lower sun angle/shorter daylight had something to do with it? Highs around 70 not as conductive for severewx..80 in the summer would be considered cool.

Just a thought. Not saying the timing had no effect, but a few factors can f**k everything.

Angle of the cold is what messed up the storms

[mappy]

Angle of the cold is what messed up the storms

Nope, it was the angle of darkness that came before the storms. THAT was the problem.

[LMolineuxLM1]

Short simple and sweet. Ocean Effect or CAD. The Warm front didnt push as far east and north as it was forecasted to do. No need for fighting.

[Ellinwood]

Short simple and sweet. Ocean Effect or CAD. The Warm front didnt push as far east and north as it was forecasted to do. No need for fighting.

Those weren't the reasons why it busted at all for our area... it was one of (or a combo. of) the first low being stronger/faster than expected or the second low developing later than expected (haven't gone back to check which). Either way, the difference accounted for the faster moving northern half of the line as the frontal boundary raced east, and then once the secondary low finally DID get forming, it slowed the southern half of the front and kept it well to the west into KY and TN before the secondary low pushed eastwards through southern VA and the Carolinas.

[stormitecture]

OK, way late but here it is anyway:

Pretty much a no go for Ellinwood and myself in NC. Nice drive and had fun anyway. Can't expect anything for a February set-up other than that (a nice drive). I did get to play with my camera some which was another good reason to be out (get use to shooting while chasing). He summarized the events, but it was fun...a ton more fun than it sounded many had sitting around typing on a forum about being 'fringed', passed by, or typing tons of "meh" comments.

OK, for some comments elsewhere in the thread

- OEM1 (aka Master(bater) of Destruction)...it was me that threatened to have you fired, but I lost interest and didn't save the posts from Eastern, so the person I was in contact with doesn't have access to some of your comments made there. I missed a chance to ask the firefigher's during the wild fires what they thought about the OEM office. Wasn't so positive before. Frankly though I've passed on my info and concerns to other news outlets and it'll be up to them to do what they want. I've got other priorities.

- The 70s dew point reported near Emporia was an error, it was rather dry all around (dew pts in the upper 50 to lower 60s). Not enough.

- Is there any of those Hurricane Simulators around DC. I think they didn't license the video shown inside (Jim Leonard's Typhoon Omar shot, where the billboard sign frame falls right next to them).

- Ian...you need to go No.3 on the clippers on that head just once, to see what it looks like.

- Like Charlie Sheen...I'm full of win (Charles County call) LOL. Side thought (there has got to be a new avatar animated gif about him).

- Regards to the whole Climo vs. no climo forecasting. The bottomline is this:

Climatological analysis is based on post storm results and statistics are used to form a large picture

Forecasting is an evaluation of known physics to predict something.

So it's post analysis vs. pre-analysis. It is not arguing two side of the argument but agreeing.

I think the missed part however is this...the climo argument wasn't incorrectly called climo...many were just giving "GUT" reactions and calls for the system.

[LMolineuxLM1]

Those weren't the reasons why it busted at all for our area... it was one of (or a combo. of) the first low being stronger/faster than expected or the second low developing later than expected (haven't gone back to check which). Either way, the difference accounted for the faster moving northern half of the line as the frontal boundary raced east, and then once the secondary low finally DID get forming, it slowed the southern half of the front and kept it well to the west into KY and TN before the secondary low pushed eastwards through southern VA and the Carolinas.

I was also alerted that the trough also didn't go negative fast enough and far enough west to help.

[PhineasC]

OK, way late but here it is anyway:

Pretty much a no go for Ellinwood and myself in NC. Nice drive and had fun anyway. Can't expect anything for a February set-up other than that (a nice drive). I did get to play with my camera some which was another good reason to be out (get use to shooting while chasing). He summarized the events, but it was fun...a ton more fun than it sounded many had sitting around typing on a forum about being 'fringed', passed by, or typing tons of "meh" comments.

OK, for some comments elsewhere in the thread

- OEM1 (aka Master(bater) of Destruction)...it was me that threatened to have you fired, but I lost interest and didn't save the posts from Eastern, so the person I was in contact with doesn't have access to some of your comments made there. I missed a chance to ask the firefigher's during the wild fires what they thought about the OEM office. Wasn't so positive before. Frankly though I've passed on my info and concerns to other news outlets and it'll be up to them to do what they want. I've got other priorities.

- The 70s dew point reported near Emporia was an error, it was rather dry all around (dew pts in the upper 50 to lower 60s). Not enough.

- Is there any of those Hurricane Simulators around DC. I think they didn't license the video shown inside (Jim Leonard's Typhoon Omar shot, where the billboard sign frame falls right next to them).

- Ian...you need to go No.3 on the clippers on that head just once, to see what it looks like.

- Like Charlie Sheen...I'm full of win (Charles County call) LOL. Side thought (there has got to be a new avatar animated gif about him).

- Regards to the whole Climo vs. no climo forecasting. The bottomline is this:

Climatological analysis is based on post storm results and statistics are used to form a large picture

Forecasting is an evaluation of known physics to predict something.

So it's post analysis vs. pre-analysis. It is not arguing two side of the argument but agreeing.

I think the missed part however is this...the climo argument wasn't incorrectly called climo...many were just giving "GUT" reactions and calls for the system.

Good lord, I couldn't imagine sharing a car with you and Ellinwood for 5 hours. I bet you guys had a huge debate over changing the radio presets in the car and whether or not it was appropriate. After that, you probably then argued over who scuffed the plastic trim on the passenger door.

[ravensrule]

Good lord, I couldn't imagine sharing a car with you and Ellinwood for 5 hours. I bet you guys had a huge debate over changing the radio presets in the car and whether or not it was appropriate. After that, you probably then argued over who scuffed the plastic trim on the passenger door.

[Ellinwood]

Good lord, I couldn't imagine sharing a car with you and Ellinwood for 5 hours. I bet you guys had a huge debate over changing the radio presets in the car and whether or not it was appropriate. After that, you probably then argued over who scuffed the plastic trim on the passenger door.

We have many discussions, most of which are perfectly normal, if not on the nerdy side (see: weather, web stuff, media, cars). We rarely argue unless it's concerning which storm to track or which route to take.

[The Dude]

Good lord, I couldn't imagine sharing a car with you and Ellinwood for 5 hours. I bet you guys had a huge debate over changing the radio presets in the car and whether or not it was appropriate. After that, you probably then argued over who scuffed the plastic trim on the passenger door.

It can't be any worse than spending your day in All Politics.

[LMolineuxLM1]

People this event is now way in the past time to burry it and move on to the next event.

[stormitecture]

Good lord, I couldn't imagine sharing a car with you and Ellinwood for 5 hours. I bet you guys had a huge debate over changing the radio presets in the car and whether or not it was appropriate. After that, you probably then argued over who scuffed the plastic trim on the passenger door.

Please don't take offense to this, but that is probably your worst call yet, and lacks some perspective. We get along great on chases. I personally have a pretty low tolerance level too...I had to get rid of Vinylfreak after just 1/2 years worth of chasing tryouts. That was a complete disaster of a chase partnership. Meeting Ellinwood was sooo refreshing. I'm worse then him too, I often cast doubt, but that's just me working everything out in my head.