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Monday Feb 28 Severe Weather Threat


Cheeznado

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Unreal if this were to become a watch all at one time... I don't think I have ever seen a Tornado watch to cover so much real estate for one watch.....

While it is large it's not super big. There have definitely been larger ones. I can think of a few in the plains and then some in the NE at least in my memory.

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While it is large it's not super big. There have definitely been larger ones. I can think of a few in the plains and then some in the NE at least in my memory.

I figured there had to have been larger watch areas.... In my brief time hard core following storms I have never seen a watch area that size. :) Looking forward to tomorrow afternoon/evening action around my neck of the woods!

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

700 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA

FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS

NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 700 AM UNTIL 200

PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENWOOD

MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...WW 29...WW 30...

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION IS ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF POTENT

MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK MOVING

THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS WARM AND RATHER

MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AREA VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG LOW

AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES

OF 300-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED

SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES

/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...MEAD

ww0031_radar.gif

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am sure the 'ol seabreeze front will squash any potential severe before it gets to the beach. Water temps still in upper 40s.

Our biggest severe threats are in summer and fall

According to locals we miss the worst of it , going north. Hope everyone stays safe!

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Yep, dew point rising here, almost 60 now and rising about 3 degrees per hour. We could be getting close to the mid to upper 60's by the time the storms get here.

I'm just hoping they actually get here. Pretty pitiful looking out west of us. Could just be the calm before the storm though. Sun should come out in our areas shortly (if it hasn't already).

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SPC got rid of Moderate

They still have 10% hatched over portions of N AL into S TN/NW GA. 30% Damaging winds covers a large portion.

http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html

As mentioned on another board winds have shifted more Unidirectional too early, thus leading to a greater damaging winds threat. Although tornadoes are still possible, in the leading edge or embedded in possible scroll-line, or discrete cells that happen to develop out ahead of any linear storms that decide to develop if we can break the CAP soon. Overall tornado threat potential is lower, at least in regards to strong tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail with decent lapse rates in place seem the greatest threats.

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