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Monday Feb 28 Severe Weather Threat


Cheeznado

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I know a lot of folks are bummed out about winter dying an ugly death- but as far as I am concerned, spring means: severe weather! Tomorrow looks interesting in my neck of the woods, SPCs day 2 has a large slight risk with 30% probabilities:

post-357-0-16763500-1298789937.gif

The cold front will be timed well in GA for once- - CAPE is somewhat meager but shear is strong and we should be in the right entrance of the 500 mb jet so things might get at least somewhat exciting. Will be nice to hear thunder in any case.

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So it seems for us folks in the SE. Hard to believe that earlier this month we were looking at a potential winter event to take place once more in the March 1-2 period and look where we've landed at right now. That's been consistently delayed daily by a day or 2 with every run of the long range especially GFS which now has that potential on the 10th but will more likely than not become too warm or some other scenario occurs. Regardless, I really can't complain about the warm weather we've been having and with meteorological winter coming to a close, it's about time that we entered the Spring period. A lot of us could still use the rain and Monday's severe weather threat ought to help rid of the drought issues.

Speaking of the storm potential, I like how with every bit of the new data coming in, the chances seem to have increased for a while now supporting better forcing, and strong shear and increasing levels in instability. Can't rule out that a few areas could see tornadoes with QLCS being the main convective mode, but where the development of those few supercells will occur I can't say. Hopefully we can tap in to more than what Friday's event yielded, which I didn't expect much rain out of but seemed to have done just a bit of justice for some areas. I think we could pick up about half to around an inch of rain with some of the more heavier storms that do roll through dropping a bit more. With that, I say bring on the storminess. We could use a bit of action instead of these long periods of warm/dry days.

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It's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have been keeping an eye on it for the past few days. The timing is going to be almost too good to be true, with the system moving through during the warm afternoon hours.

The 500 mb jet is just to our north, which means we are in the right entrance quadrant, always a nice thing to see. Even at 925, we have a nice tiny jet-streak wanting to form over northwestern Georgia and move across the state with the line of storms. We don't have much in the way of directional shear, with 925 coming from the southwest and at 500 coming from almost due west. Also, the VV profile has the best lift across northwestern Georgia to begin the event and will move across the rest of the state in the early evening hours. I believe the best chance of severe storms is going to be in the mid-afternoon hours for northwest Georgia, with the line moving through the rest of the state during the late afternoon/early evening hours; providing gusty winds and the possibility of some hail.

To sum it up, I think a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the southeast (as opposed to Friday's system where it gave me about 10 to 15 mins of very heavy rain then was outta here). The timing of the line, at least for Georgia, will be in the mid to late afternoon hours and into the evening the further south and east you live. If we get up anywhere near 80 (I think we will here locally) we could see some very nice storms popping up on radar. I'm anticipating quite a bit of heavy winds and some nice sized hail. (I've never seen hail in my life... and yes I grew up in Florida so pretty impressive or unlucky you pick ;) )

Bring on another day of working all day tomorrow!

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It's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have been keeping an eye on it for the past few days. The timing is going to be almost too good to be true, with the system moving through during the warm afternoon hours.

The 500 mb jet is just to our north, which means we are in the right entrance quadrant, always a nice thing to see. Even at 925, we have a nice tiny jet-streak wanting to form over northwestern Georgia and move across the state with the line of storms. We don't have much in the way of directional shear, with 925 coming from the southwest and at 500 coming from almost due west. Also, the VV profile has the best lift across northwestern Georgia to begin the event and will move across the rest of the state in the early evening hours. I believe the best chance of severe storms is going to be in the mid-afternoon hours for northwest Georgia, with the line moving through the rest of the state during the late afternoon/early evening hours; providing gusty winds and the possibility of some hail.

To sum it up, I think a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the southeast (as opposed to Friday's system where it gave me about 10 to 15 mins of very heavy rain then was outta here). The timing of the line, at least for Georgia, will be in the mid to late afternoon hours and into the evening the further south and east you live. If we get up anywhere near 80 (I think we will here locally) we could see some very nice storms popping up on radar. I'm anticipating quite a bit of heavy winds and some nice sized hail. (I've never seen hail in my life... and yes I grew up in Florida so pretty impressive or unlucky you pick ;) )

Bring on another day of working all day tomorrow!

I will be ready for the chase (hoping this gets going after 3pm because of work). I hope it pans out here.

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From RAH (They obviously don't agree with SPC).

HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE

DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BETWEEN 21Z TO

06Z...COINCIDENT TO THE IMPRESSIVE LOWEST 1KM WIND FIELD OF 50-70 KT

THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA...TRANSPORTING MOIST AIR FROM THE GOM

NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRE-FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY

AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NC

AS THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1385 TO 1390 METERS WITH

DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 50 TO LOWER 60S AND PWATS AOA

1.4-1.5"(~300 PERCENT OF NORMAL). THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT

COULD BRING A THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...IF

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE...WHICH IS HIGHLY SUSPECT

GIVEN ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...POTENTIAL CAPPING

INVERSION AT AROUND 800 MB...AND SLIGHTLY DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE

TIMING AFTER PEAK HEATING. EARLY THERMODYNAMIC MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS

SUGGEST MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 300 JOULES

EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EITHER WAY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

HAS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT FOR MONDAY

AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT

MASS FIELDS WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE WEST TO LIKELY

EASTWARD.

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I'm anticipating quite a bit of heavy winds and some nice sized hail. (I've never seen hail in my life... and yes I grew up in Florida so pretty impressive or unlucky you pick ;) )

Bring on another day of working all day tomorrow!

Well, each day brings surprises :) Candyman, you Fla. folks lead sheltered lives when it comes to the richness of weather offerings, lol. I just hope your first encounter with big hail comes when you are not out in your car, lol, stuck at a traffic light, like happened to me when my car was new.

My only encounter with almost baseball hail was in Hampton, but I was able to get under a huge oak, so it saved my windshields..of course a tornado was very possible and being under that huge oak had its drawbacks, but it did cut back on the divots. Marble hail is common, so you should get to see some good hail in the next couple of years, if you are in the right place. T

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From RAH (They obviously don't agree with SPC).

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE...WHICH IS HIGHLY SUSPECT

GIVEN ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...POTENTIAL CAPPING

INVERSION AT AROUND 800 MB...AND SLIGHTLY DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE

TIMING AFTER PEAK HEATING. EARLY THERMODYNAMIC MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS

SUGGEST MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 300 JOULES

EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EITHER WAY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

HAS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT FOR MONDAY

To be honest, that's what I'm trying to figure out myself is just how much cloud cover is there going to be tomorrow... If we see sun up until an hour or so before the event we would all be in very good shape of seeing severe wx. BUT, if it's just a muggy cloudy day tomorrow that would put a real damper on temperatures at the surface breaking through the cap. It's going to be interesting to see it all set up tomorrow. Frankly, I'm thinking that we are going to see more clouds tomorrow than I originally thought.... axesmiley.png

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Well, each day brings surprises :) Candyman, you Fla. folks lead sheltered lives when it comes to the richness of weather offerings, lol. I just hope your first encounter with big hail comes when you are not out in your car, lol, stuck at a traffic light, like happened to me when my car was new.

My only encounter with almost baseball hail was in Hampton, but I was able to get under a huge oak, so it saved my windshields..of course a tornado was very possible and being under that huge oak had its drawbacks, but it did cut back on the divots. Marble hail is common, so you should get to see some good hail in the next couple of years, if you are in the right place. T

HAHA! I suppose we do lead sheltered lives, which is pretty remarkable considering our afternoon thunderstorms in the summer. I have only seen ONE waterspout (but I was about 4 and don't really remember it...) I have never seen a tornado, though there have been a few to hit near where I grew up, but they were all at night... Hell, I haven't even truly experienced the brunt of a hurricane (which according to my parents and the rest of the people in the Tampa Bay area a good thing...)

The bad thing about living up here now is I don't have a garage to put my car in. So if it does hail, I'm pretty SOL if it's anything significant. Even if I'm at work, the area around my station is treeless.... sad.gif. It's funny too, because when I had my phone interview for this job, I told the chief I had never seen hail. His response,"If you work up here I guarantee you will see hail." I'm going to hold it to him!

Another funny side note is that if I were to ever go chasing... I would probably be the WORST lucked person to do so... I went to FSU and we discovered that there is a so called "Capital Circle Effect" (there has been research done about such circles.. but for some reason Tallahassee isn't considered one... but you go there for four years and you come to believe it) where all the storms rode up and around the road that circles around Tallahassee... Also, with Charley, it was making a beeline straight for the Bradenton area. It took that right turn into Punta Gorda. We only experienced minimal tropical storm force winds along the coast in Sarasota, but you go 50 miles inland and they got hammered!

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2011022717_metars_mgm.gif

WOW! Look at the temperatures and dew points ALREADY! It's only noon! Incredible! Our atmosphere is getting primed for tomorrow! Like I said in an earlier post, if we can have the clouds hold off (we had DENSE fog this morning... that's why I'm only at 63 :( ) tomorrow morning/early afternoon it could be an active day across the southeast.

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Just updated.

Yes, I just noticed that too... It's in line with what I was expecting. The better dynamics are going to move north with the low pressure system, but the trailing cold front will bring some strong storms for many us. As I mentioned above... it's getting VERY warm outside right now... If we have these same temps and just as much sunshine it could be even MORE active.

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/

This shows a pretty strong line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the southeast tomorrow evening. Those in Tennessee will see the worst of the weather as you will be closer to the low and better lift due to the jet. It also keeps the line fairly strong across central Alabama and moving into Georgia (it only goes out 36h). I wouldn't be surprised to see a few cells pop ahead of the line that could cause some trouble around here.

Also, have to pray for those out west. This system will be moving through overnight and will be quite powerful! Hope everyone stays safe and everyone is prepared out there.

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Well things are getting started WELL to the north!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 100 PM CST.* AT 1218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCLEAN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLOOMINGTON...HEYWORTH...NORMAL...DOWNS...TOWANDA...COOKSVILLE... SAYBROOK...COLFAX...SHIRLEY...BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT...HOLDER... MORAINE VIEW STATE PARK...ELLSWORTH...ARROWSMITH AND PLEASANT HILL.

This borders the northern edge of the SLIGHT risk for today! Pretty impressive!

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I am in dire need of some interesting weather. So I'm rather excited about tomorrow's severe weather . MBY is on the very southern edge of the SPC moderate risk area. If I'm reading their discussion right, it sounds like their could be a few supercells out in front of the main squall line early on. Then the focus should shift to the main line where damaging winds would be the main possibility. Maybe a tornado or two embedded in it. With dew points already near 60oF here the stage looks to be set for some storms. Can't wait!

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Afternoon update from RAH:

WHILE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE MORNING IN

THE FAR NORTHWEST IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE

COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY

MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS NOT FORECAST TO BE TOO HIGH...

AROUND 500J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES ONLY FALL TO ABOUT -1C...BUT

AMPLE SHEAR ALONG WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LATE IN THE DAY AND

IN THE EVENING...LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130KT 250MB JET ALONG WITH

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 85KT 500MB JET...PROVIDES FOR ENOUGH

DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT TO MAKE FOR

POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING.

DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ABOUT 500J/KG...AND SPC HAS PUSHED A MODERATE RISK

OF SEVERE WEATHER TO AREAS JUST TO OUR WEST ON DAY 2. SPC WRF GUST

POTENTIAL ALSO SHOWS SEVERE WEATHER AS A POSSIBILITY...AND WILL

HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THE BEST TIME AS BEING FROM ABOUT 4 TO 5 PM IN

THE TRIAD TO 10 TO 11 PM EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MOVING EAST.

FINALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD

SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TOWARD

THE TRIAD...AND AROUND 80 OR THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. THE RECORD AT

KRDU IS CERTAINLY IN JEOPARDY...AND IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KGSO. RECORD

HIGH MINIMUMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING BROKEN AS WELL...CLOSE WITH

MINS TONIGHT AS WELL AS HOW FAST THE AIR IS ABLE TO COOL BEHIND THE

FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS...A

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AS PRECIPITABLE WATER

VALUES FALL FROM NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES...TO LESS

THAN A HALF-INCH BY 12Z TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD

RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD KFAY

AND KCTZ. -DJF

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First Severe Thunderstorm Warning up in Tennessee. and so it begins...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR BIG

SANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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First Severe Thunderstorm Warning up in Tennessee. and so it begins...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR BIG

SANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Going to be the first of MANY. Especially for Tennessee.... It's going to be a long night for the folks living in AR, MO, IL, KY, TN and northern MS.....

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Uh oh.... Hook echo showing up on radar and there it is!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

430 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF MCEWEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

ERIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

post-89-0-80819500-1298845663.png

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Uh oh.... Hook echo showing up on radar and there it is!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

430 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF MCEWEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

ERIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

What program do you use? I have always wanted a radar system to look at like that... but I haven't found one I liked.

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THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KENTUCKY

NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT

CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 85 MILES EAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...WW 21...

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS FORMED WEST OF

NASHVILLE...AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN

MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY OVER

THIS REGION CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE

THE RISK OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HART

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