earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 00z SPC WRF is a big hit..awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Warm sector temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Oh man, the SPC WRF is definitely intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 New SPC Day 1 moves the Slight Risk further south..basically gets up to Central NJ ...UPPER OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN OH WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WV AND SRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS DUE TO THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST SWWD ACROSS ERN KY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE AND SFC DEWPOINTS COULD REACH 60 F. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN WV...WRN VA AND MD...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS A LINE MOVES OVER THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 00Z RGEM 21Z Monday Temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 isentropic lift under way on the I294 surface as the boundary to our south starts to come back north. The 00z nam is a joke right now. I looked back at the 12/18z guidance and there wasn't much qpf to speak of where it is forming now near PHL. Goes to show you if you see the isentropic lift on the guidance and they dont spit out the qpf, there may be something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 showers/thunderstorms advancing towards the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just had a flash of lightning and heard thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 at least i know i'm not seeing things--a decent amount of lightning with this convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 unimpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Lots of rain still to come, moving west to east along the warm front. It's early, but it does seem to be maybe a hair further south than forecasted so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 HRRR keeps most of the heavy Tstorm action well south of us for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Based on current radar, I'm having a hard time understanding how north Jersey doesn't get in on the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 HRRR keeps most of the heavy Tstorm action well south of us for later today. Its probably putting a bit too much emphasis on keeping the warm front to the south. The LLJ is still forecast to kick in this afternoon and that should be suffice to push this northward. That being said, it still remains to be seen if the further north solutions are correct. The NAM from last night had the front clearing the entire area as did the SPC WRF which brought surface temps to 20c at 21z over Central NJ. It's going to be an interesting day tracking the progress of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The new NAM looks like it went out to lunch, not picking up on the strong convection at all. It also has all the precip clearning the area in 6 hours which is hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 And now 12z NAM comes in with very little rain for the immediate NYC metro area. About .25". The 2nd bigger batch of precip stays mostly south and it actually clips the coast well after cold front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 What is causing that convection to die out over central PA? Its starting to look like its not going to make it too far east and thats perhaps what the models have been picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 And now 12z NAM comes in with very little rain for the immediate NYC metro area. About .25". The 2nd bigger batch of precip stays mostly south and it actually clips the coast well after cold front clears. Put much more stock into the SPC WRF at this range. We will see what it does at 12z in a bit over an hour. It's 00z run was probably too far north and warm given current local obs. It's still only 9:15, though, so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Convection developing over Eastern PA north of Philly now along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 You can see now whats going, were going to need that warm front to push pretty far northward if were going to see any convection this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Pretty hard rain in Bayside with occasional rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 mid 40's and rain not worth a pinned thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Briefly heavy thunderstorm moving through Long Beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 We're getting some brighter skies and attempt at clearing here now. Things should get interesting once the LLJ ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 What a total more or less non-event for our region. Looks like we miss out on the strong convection and end up with around an inch of rain in most spots. The rivers are not even responding quickly despite the heavy downpours that have been ongoing here all morning. it's become very foggy in Ramsey which hopefully means the warm front is crossing the area. I can only hope we can get warm sectored in time before the cold front arrives but it doesn't look good. Edit: John, do you expect the radar to fill back in once the jet ramps up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 I really don't understand why some are getting upset, this was never supposed to be a super flood producer. The front is nowhere near us, we have to see if we can get the warm front further north to get into the warm sector and get convection later. Right now, we have showers and thunderstorms training along the warm front from west to east at 10:45am. It's going to continue raining, over the areas where the boundary is at the moment. I don't know if everybody was expecting a synoptic rain event that blankets the entire area with 2"+ liquid, but that isn't going to happen. This is a convective type event, and as usual with these events the higher amounts are spotty and isolated to areas that sit under thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Getting breaks of sun here now. We'll see how far north through Central New Jersey the 70 degree line makes it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Getting breaks of sun here now. We'll see how far north through Central New Jersey the 70 degree line makes it this afternoon. Yup, same here. It's still early and we've got a bunch of time. The visible satellite imagery is encouraging with the warm front forecast to push north the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Nam did a good job getting most of the precip out quicker, however, its time to turn to meso models now, looking at sat I would imagine some areas across eastern pa and new jersey will get some good storms later today, the CF is still well to the west. Im really dissapointed people are not flooded out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I don't think anyone is freaking out, its just not encouraging to see the models more or less dry slot our area and to have all that convection over northern PA more or less die out in less than two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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