earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 00z NAM has 2"+ liquid for parts of the area in the pre frontal warms sector...the 00z SPC WRF has thunderstorms breaking out on a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 00Z RGEM Monday Thunderstorm Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What kind of winds are we talking about with this? 60 mph again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 00Z RGEM Monday Thunderstorm Threat Cool link. The guidance this evening is ramping up the QPF and thunderstorm threat with the thermal boundary and cold front in the area. The NAM is actually keeping the low level jet slightly disjointed but it's gotten stronger the past few runs. Could be a pretty interesting event to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 What kind of winds are we talking about with this? 60 mph again? Probably not close to that unless there are some strong/severe thunderstorms...the system is weaker and the trough is pretty broad. The best winds may actually come with the CAA unless you're on eastern LI where the NAM has 20-25+kt southerly winds again at 10m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Here's the NAM accumulated liquid..likely overdone with convection but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Slight Risk basically up to Staten Island and N NJ on the Day 2 outlook ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER-MID MS VALLEY TO CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA -- IS FCST TO DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSUME STG POSITIVE TILT DAY-1 AS IT ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. BY START OF PERIOD...500-MB TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM MO SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX. THOUGH MINOR/MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING...STG CONSENSUS OF SREF AND OPERATIONAL PROGS INDICATES TROUGH SHOULD DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING 01/06Z-01/12Z TIME FRAME. AT SFC...DOMINANT LOW BY 28/12Z SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER LE/WRN NY/NWRN PA REGION...WITH SECONDARY/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW POSSIBLE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL REGION ALONG TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THAT LOW SWWD TO NEAR MID/UPPER TX COAST. EXPECT MAIN LOW TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH 01/00Z COLD-FRONTAL POSITION NEAR PVD...IAD...ATL...LAF LINE. FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE ALL BUT GA/FL ATLANTIC COASTS BY END OF PERIOD...WHILE CROSSING FL PANHANDLE FROM NE-SW. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY TO CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... SVR EVENT DISCUSSED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK WILL BE ONGOING INTO THIS PERIOD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...AND MAY FAN OUT TO AFFECT BROAD SWATH OF ERN STATES THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MAIN THREAT...WITH AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CORRIDOR OF GREATER RISK AND MORE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS SWATH...BUT TOO DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO NARROW DOWN SPECIFICALLY ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 60S F SFC ISODROSOTHERM ALREADY INLAND TO RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF S-CENTRAL/SE OK AND N-CENTRAL/NE TX AS OF 27/05Z...WITH MID-60S CENTRAL TX AND COASTAL PLAIN. RELATED MOIST PLUME IS FCST TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS OZARKS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DAY-1...LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING AT LEAST MRGL SVR HAIL POTENTIAL IN TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE SFC OVER PORTIONS NRN INDIANA/OH BY 28/12Z. FARTHER S ACROSS WARM SECTOR...MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTAIN CHARACTERISTIC TEMPORAL MAX IN STATIC STABILITY IN SHALLOW/NEAR-SFC LAYER. HOWEVER...THETAE ADVECTION WILL HELP TO OFFSET THIS TENDENCY ENOUGH TO YIELD SVR THREAT FROM QLCS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL MODES. FCST MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MAGNITUDE/DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER TOO SMALL TO PRECLUDE EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS FROM BEING SFC-BASED...OR VERY NEARLY SO. MAIN UNCERTAINTIES FOR EARLY IN PERIOD INVOLVE WHETHER ANY EMBEDDED/PRECURSORY SUPERCELLS WILL BE PRESENT IN ADDITION TO DOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...AND HOW FAR SWD INITIAL BAND OF MAY BACKBUILD INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED...ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF INITIAL/MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING DAY ACROSS PORTIONS TN VALLEY REGION AND AL INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FARTHER N MOVES EWD-ENEWD UP OH VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST MRGLLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WITH MID-UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENING JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NY/NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN SWLY SFC WINDS OVER MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 1-2 KM...COMBINED WITH STG SPEED SHEAR...WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLY ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS FOR BOWS...AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN OR AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BANDS. BROAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...HENCE LARGE SIZE OF AOA 30% SVR PROBABILITIES. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT...BUT WITH AT LEAST NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY POSITIVE BUOYANCY AS FAR N AS OH/PA IN SUPPORT OF SVR THREAT. SRN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN ATTM...THEREFORE PROBABILITIES ARE TAPERED SWD TOWARD GULF AND SEWD TOWARD COASTAL CAROLINAS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Zoomed in Day 2 Severe probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Flood threat anyone? The rivers are running moderatly above normal in NJ. 3" probably puts most areas in flood stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Flood threat anyone? The rivers are running moderatly above normal in NJ. 3" probably puts most areas in flood stage 6z nam is out of control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Probably not close to that unless there are some strong/severe thunderstorms...the system is weaker and the trough is pretty broad. The best winds may actually come with the CAA unless you're on eastern LI where the NAM has 20-25+kt southerly winds again at 10m. Ok, so as far as I'm concerned......This storm blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 6z GFS is wetter, 1.50-2.00" of rainfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 No one likes to track severe weather in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12zNAM trying to show some backlash precip...850 temps look to be cutting through nyc....this might be convective feedback...http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/fp0_042.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 its to warm...just saying looks different from gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 With everything happening a little faster on todays runs, we're in the warm sector by 21z tomorrow. The NAM has many areas past 60 for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 New Day 2 Outlook SPC AC 271730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TN/KY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA TO SOUTHERN WV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OPENING/ACCELERATING OVER AZ/NM AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EARLY DAY CONVECTION. A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE IS LIKELY ON MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. ...TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AN ONGOING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...REFERENCE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...ROBUST NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT /AS AIDED BY 50-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 1-2 KM/ WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY LINEAR/QLCS-TYPE CONVECTION ROUGHLY ATTENDANT TO THE EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEARING THE MS RIVER VICINITY EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN WITH AN UNFAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY TIME OF DAY /NEAR 12Z/...SURFACE BASED TSTMS SEEM PROBABLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/TURBULENT MIXING...AS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND EVEN STRONG TORNADO RISK ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VIA QLCS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR MODES. IN ADDITION...ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...AN EARLY DAY ELEVATED HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST AS WELL. SUBSEQUENT ADDITIONAL/BACKBUILDING TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/QUICKLY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES. IN ALL...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH A SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FAST-MOVING/WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR/BOWING CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO QUASI-DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SOME TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 02/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12zNAM trying to show some backlash precip...850 temps look to be cutting through nyc....this might be convective feedback...http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_042.shtml just look at the RH fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Impressive 45% area. Any chance of the first high risk down that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'm on my phone, can somebody post the 12z SPC WRF? [/weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'm on my phone, can somebody post the 12z SPC WRF? [/weenie] haha, helpless weenie you want the link or images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Maybe some scattered storms with round 1, round 2 mainly stays south of us, kinda like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Going to be most interesting tonight and tomorrow to see how the line evolves and just how much rainfall actually occurs. Does seem like some models are focusing the action a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Going to be most interesting tonight and tomorrow to see how the line evolves and just how much rainfall actually occurs. Does seem like some models are focusing the action a little further south. Bullseye looks to be Philly to Central Jersey coast as of now, but we should still manage an inch plus. I'll probably get similar amounts to what I got with the last storm -- 1" to 1.50" with half the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 18z NAM is more bullish on warming than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Holy cow, the NAM at 18z really warm sectored us..temperatures in the mid to upper 60's across Central New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 a bit of a snippet from the blog discussion written by rob (dark energy on the forum) http://www.nymetrowx.blogspot.com/ Short Term Active day tomorrow with rain and scattered storms with heavy rainfall likely. With the warm front advancing N in the morning, we can expect our first round of precip. Then in the afternoon, there may be some partial clearing behind the warm fropa. This potentially could get us some weak instability. The guidance have under 500 j/kg of CAPE tmw but the mid level lapse rates in the afternoon will be strong. The LLJ moving in is on the order of 60-70 kts as the frontal wave passes by to our NW. The upper trof will approach in the late afternoon and attm, the right entrance region of the h3 jet will be over our area. Ahead of the front, we are in the warm sector and any breaks in the clouds should allow temps to get well into the 50s, if not mid 60s in some areas. A line of low-topped convection should form over PA and push into our region by late afternoon. There will be a stout inversion in the low levels during the day but that should mix out later on. The line of storms should be able to mix down the strong LLJ so we included strong winds in the forecast to cover this. SPC has parts of the area in a slight risk for svr tomorrow and this looks warranted. With PW around 1.3 inches, heavy rainfall is likely and this could cause flooding issues. The eve commute looks to have delays due to convection pulling thru. The cold front pulls east just after 0z. Before it does so, there will be some CAA and so we kept the mention of some light snow before the rain ends. Not expecting any accumulation due to the BL temps being too warm but the upper levels will be cooling quite a bit. Once the fropa takes place, gusty winds will commence. We should see gusts to 40 mph easily and this will last into the night. Skies clear out twds 5z with temps cooling off into the 20s and 30s twds morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Down to 34.7 at 8pm up here near KSWF. Clear skies and calm wind dropped off the temps real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 31.6 dpt 26 calm winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 NAM still bullish with the warm sector between 18 and 21z tomorrow..60's. It's trimmed down QPF by a good bit, mainly due to it keeping the best isentropic lifting with the warm front to our west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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