Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I wonder what Jerry will get for dinner.... Happy Meal? Petit Robert Bistro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 That BOX map pretty much fits my thinking. Kevin will be happy, and Jerry will have a nice filet, courtesy of Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Jerry will have a nice filet, courtesy of Ray. filet o' fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Pretty much an AWT deal.. with 3-5 50 miles either side of the pike..except you can extend that 100 miles north. Euro was awful on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 got a text from kev en route to tobin...... he wants his ashes sprinkled over his snowbanks We'll see won't we. I'm enthused about this one. NAM seems to have done well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z GFS BUFKIT isn't out yet on the PSU site, but the 6z GFS doesn't look much different. This would be some decent snow growth for S NH with some moderate lift in the max DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Pretty much an AWT deal.. with 3-5 50 miles either side of the pike..except you can extend that 100 miles north. Euro was awful on this one Euro fits the map when you take ratios into account. It may be a little light for CT, but we have yet to see how it will play out. Maybe it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Ill take my 0.7 inches. Just enough to cover all the grass that's showing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z GFS BUFKIT isn't out yet on the PSU site, but the 6z GFS doesn't look much different. This would be some decent snow growth for S NH with some moderate lift in the max DGZ. NWS really cleaned up nicely on the last snow/ice/rain event for SNE/CNE, great forecast really. let's see how they do with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 CAR onto the trend for Monday.... .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN TRACK EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL AGREE ON SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN BEHIND SYSTEM AS OVER-RUNNING OCCURS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH LATER SUNDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM ON A TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MAINE...HOWEVER MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER TAKE SYSTEM A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS DOES THE ECMWF. SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MIX OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR POPS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE SREF...NAM AND GFS. WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF PROBABILITY. FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE GMOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 As amazing as this winter has been, I was shocked to see that up here, in NE MA, it is not impossible that the upcoming might be our 5th largest of the year. Robust clipper FTW. Euro fits the map when you take ratios into account. It may be a little light for CT, but we have yet to see how it will play out. Maybe it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z EC keeps the max stripe in the same locales, but it's juicier overall. Widespread 0.25"+ from LEB-LCI-PWM. It's still not very impressive for CT. 0.05" line runs from about BDL to GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Euro still north with the clipper, Jackpot is Central and SE NH and SW maine..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Euro pretty much held firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Bummer, was holding out hope that the nam may have been on to something but its obviously not, good luck to you guys up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z EC keeps the max stripe in the same locales, but it's juicier overall. Widespread 0.25"+ from LEB-LCI-PWM. It's still not very impressive for CT. 0.05" line runs from about BDL to GON. Tossed..just no support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday looks like snow to start to FRZRN here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Interesting to see if the king will have the two wave idea for tuesday, and if there will be enough seperation so the colder air will work in before the second wave comes north and has time to amplify just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Interesting to see if the king will have the two wave idea for tuesday, and if there will be enough seperation so the colder air will work in before the second wave comes north and has time to amplify just a tad. It does have the 2 waves, Its getting closer to a frozen event especially up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday looks like snow to start to FRZRN here It's a decent front end hit for parts of NNE. 54hr is close to snow here and by then 0.35-0.50" has fallen. Of course if there is warmer air above H85 at that point then the 850mb 0C doesn't matter. The NAM is toastier at 750-800mb than 850 at 54hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It does have the 2 waves, Its getting closer to a frozen event especially up here Thanks, well, good news hopefully we can get a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 1. good thing the sun is still rising otherwise we'd all have froze to death this winter. 2. what a SZ that area is snowfall wise what does he mean by sz for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It's a decent front end hit for parts of NNE. 54hr is close to snow here and by then 0.35-0.50" has fallen. Of course if there is warmer air above H85 at that point then the 850mb 0C doesn't matter. I am certainly not as concerend about the Monday event as i was a few das ago, It had zero frozen with torch temps, Now it looks we have enough of a cad signature to hold temps in the 30's with more frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday's storm continues to resemble yesterday more and more. POS vortmax moving under sne. If that vortmax north of Toronto were weaker, this thing probably would be an ice to snow event for a bunch of the interior. That seems to be keeping this low on a further north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 where does that low actually track? i see its in indiana/illionois and then 24 hrs later its in new brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 EC holds the 2m temps in the U20s-M30s for a lot of NNE. If we can get the sfc center a little more SE this turns into a S > IP > ZR event for the foothills with a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It's a decent front end hit for parts of NNE. 54hr is close to snow here and by then 0.35-0.50" has fallen. Of course if there is warmer air above H85 at that point then the 850mb 0C doesn't matter. The NAM is toastier at 750-800mb than 850 at 54hr. Yeah, On the Nam i was at SN at hr 54 then hr 57/60 was RN .37" back to FZRN then snow with about 5" accumalation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 what does he mean by sz for snow? Screw Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday's storm continues to resemble yesterday more and more. POS vortmax moving under sne. If that vortmax north of Toronto were weaker, this thing probably would be an ice to snow event for a bunch of the interior. That seems to be keeping this low on a further north track. This keeps ever so slowly trending to more of a frozen event then plain rain, Especially for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This keeps ever so slowly trending to more of a frozen event then plain rain, Especially for NNE Figured you'd be out sledding today. 3-5 tonight (maybe an extra inch kicker). Whatcha got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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