weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 That's when svr season ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 00z NAM really cuts flood threat tomorrow compared to last 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 00z NAM really cuts flood threat tomorrow compared to last 2 runs qpf reduction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The only threat with this storm is cold rain depression. Sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 qpf reduction? Keeping convection south. Still not totally out of the question but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 qpf reduction? Seems like it keeps the strongest lift just to our NW and doesn't appear to be as robust with the amount of elevated instability. THe fin though will be off to our SW...holy low topped squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Keeping convection south. Still not totally out of the question but we'll see. Going to be very nasty across the mid-Atlantic tomorrow...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Going to be very nasty across the mid-Atlantic tomorrow...wow. Don't rely on the NAM's QPF too much. All sorts of convective feedback going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Don't rely on the NAM's QPF too much. All sorts of convective feedback going on there. Wouldn't surprise me there...I didn't really look at too much yet. That's an insane amount of QPF though so convective feedback is certainly likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wiz chasing? THUNDER... WITH MUCAPE WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM ON THE ORDER OF 0-200 J/KG... SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR COUPLED WITH STRONG SRH...ALL ENCOMPASSED IN A RGN ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED 50-75KT LLJ PUMPING AN AXIS OF VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR NWD INTO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND RGN NEWD INTO THE GULF OF ME...HAVE GONE WITH THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE MASS PIKE FOR THE AFTN AND EVNG PD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. YET CONFIDENCE WANES IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY AS THIS IS STILL THE COOL-SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Warm front looks to clear the area early this afternoon, okx hinting at possible severe in ne nj and nyc metro, hopefully we can get some sort of a dryslot to coincide with warm front passage and get temps up into the 50's, either way looks like storms would weaken as they head east into the south coast, some thunder and lightning would be great though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Torrential downpour here now. 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 GFS is almost a carbon copy of friday down here with respect to wind/rain issues. it again has 40 knots sustained at 10-m (that event on friday resulted in a lot of sustained 30-35 mph / 55-65 mph gust type stuff). it's become progressively stronger and lower with the jet. nam is notably weaker...more like 30 knots where it matters and would be more meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 thunderstorms currently in northern NJ, SE NY, and far western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 thunderstorms currently in northern NJ, SW NY, and far western CT. yeah potent looking line there in SE NY right now. will be interesting to see what manages to cross the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 yeah potent looking line there in SE NY right now. will be interesting to see what manages to cross the region. weathertap is pretty hot for CG strikes over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No thunder yet, but its absolutely pouring, 12z nam says this is all out of here pretty quick, really cut back on precip, and looking at radar the rain across much of central pa is weakening and has already cleared state college. cape cod snows early tom morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No thunder yet, but its absolutely pouring, 12z nam says this is all out of here pretty quick, really cut back on precip, and looking at radar the rain across much of central pa is weakening and has already cleared state college. cape cod snows early tom morning? some hvy returns right over you. re: snow - yeah nam hints at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 some hvy returns right over you. Yes they are, looks like a summer downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 that cell (noted as mesocyclone) had 58dbz passed right overhead, hauling though in and out quickly, more on its tail, hoping for some wind but not a breath as of yet with the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 36.1 here. Thunder (x3) in the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Big lightning and thunder just now--just one hit though. - super heavy rains...snow going bye bye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Its pouring, wow is it pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Pretty easy to see where the warm front is, mid to upper 40's with strong southerly winds on long island and upper 30's to around 40 with ne winds in sw ct, heavier rains riding the warm front in sw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Deluge with winds in Ledyard Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 here comes the wind. buzm3 (elevated site) now S 35 G38knots and a meso site in buzzards bay now SE 34 G 41 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just heard a rumble of thunder. Periods of heavy rain all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 no thunder here this morning...but man were there some heavy rain rates embedded in that convection! probably 2-3"/hr at a point...didn't last more than a couple minutes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Looks like the warm front is going quite a bit further north than the last storm but it seems to "only" torch to around 50. So if we wanted storms this afternoon, we'd want the clouds to clear out and it to get up to like 55-60o F? Warm front is around blue hills and ESE to around Kev's house so far but it seems and moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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